Warren C Sanderson
Datos Biográficos
| ID | 271107 |
|---|---|
| NOMBRE | Warren C Sanderson |
| NOMBRES | Warren C |
| APELLIDO | Sanderson |
| FIRMA | SANDERSON W C |
| AFILIACIONES | Stony Brook University |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-2205-948X |
| VERIFICADO | Sí |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 42 |
| TOTAL DE CITAS | 249 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 43 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMER AÑO DE PUBLICACIÓN | 1970 |
| AÑO MÁS RECIENTE DE PUBLICACIÓN | 2019 |
| ÍNDICE H | 10 |
Prospective Longevity
Prospective Longevity
Ageing in Russia
Prospective Longevity
A Simple Measure of Human Development
FOR MUCH OF the twentieth century, statistical measurements of human development emphasized economic magnitudes.In 1990, the United Nations offered an alternative and more comprehensive way of measuring human development, the Human Development Index (HDI) (UNDP 1990).The motivation behind the production of the HDI was that economic magnitudes alone provided too narrow a basis for assessing human development.The HDI represents a compromise between…
New Approaches to the Conceptualization and Measurement of Age and Aging
Supplementing chronological age with ages that take into account the changing characteristics of people allows us to analyze aging more comprehensively and more accurately
Combined Measures of Upper and Lower Body Strength and Subgroup Differences in Subsequent Survival Among the Older Population of England
This result demonstrates the benefit of combining characteristics, using alpha-ages to convert incommensurate observations into a common metric
A New Perspective on Patterns of Aging in Europe by Education and Gender
Remeasuring Ageing in Southeast Asia
It is a commonly held view that Southeast Asian societies are ageing rapidly. This has led to a high evel of policy concern about the future capacity of states to cope with increased levels of 'old-age dependency' which, at first glance, often appear almost unmanageable. We suggest that the rates employed to demonstrate the present/future scale of 'old-age dependency' are msleading and based upon a Eurocentric notion from a bygone era. Arguing th…
Are We Overly Dependent on Conventional Dependency Ratios
The dependency ratio and its components have had a long and productive life. Here we show that they are no longer the most accurate way of measuring important aspects of population aging. We present ratios related to employment, standardized workers and consumers, health care costs, pension costs, and who is old. These ratios are based either on new data or on new approaches to the study of population aging and are all available on the internet. …
Is the Demographic Dividend an Education Dividend
The effect of changes in age structure on economic growth has been widely studied in the demography and population economics literature. The beneficial effect of changes in age structure after a decrease in fertility has become known as the “demographic dividend.” In this article, we reassess the empirical evidence on the associations among economic growth, changes in age structure, labor force participation, and educational attainment. Using a g…
Quantifying policy tradeoffs to support aging populations
Coping with aging populations is a challenge for most developed countries. Supporting non-working adults can create an unsustainable burden on those working. One way of dealing with this is to raise the normal pension age, but this has proven unpopular. A
The Characteristics Approach to the Measurement of Population Aging
Conventional measures of population aging, such as proportions over age 65, can present a misleading picture of the aging process by not taking account of changes in people's characteristics beyond their chronological age-for example, changes in remaining life expectancy, health and morbidity, disability rates, and cognitive functioning. The "characteristics approach" set out in this article encompasses multiple features of population aging, yiel…
The Uncertain Timing of Reaching 8 Billion, Peak World Population, and Other Demographic Milestones
We present new probabilistic forecasts of the timing of the world's population reaching 8 billion, the world's peak population, and the date at which one-third or more of the world's population would be 60+ years old. The timing of these milestones, as well as the timing of the Day of 7 Billion, is uncertain. We compute that the 60 percent prediction interval for the Day of 8 Billion is between 2024 and 2033. Our figures show that there is around…
Remeasuring Aging
Adjusting aging forecasts to incorporate increases in longevity and health can provide better tools for policy-makers.
Projection of populations by level of educational attainment, age, and sex for 120 countries for 2005-2050
Using demographic multi-state, cohort-component methods, we produce projections for 120 countries (covering 93% of the world population in 2005) by five-year age groups, sex, and four levels of educational attainment for the years 2005-2050. Taking int
The Demography of Educational Attainment and Economic Growth
Complementing primary education with secondary education in broad segments of the population is likely to give a strong boost to economic growth.
The coming acceleration of global population ageing
Global and Regional Population Ageing
Are Individuals’ Desired Family Sizes Stable? Evidence from West German Panel Data
A Near Electoral Majority of Pensioners
In the first half of this century in many of today's developed countries, the proportion of voting age populations 65 years old or older will roughly double. As voting age populations age, the proportion of net contributors to national budgets (mainly through taxes) will fall and the proportion of net beneficiaries (mainly through public pension and health care benefits) will rise. By mid-century in many wealthy countries, a near majority of elec…
A new perspective on population aging
In Sanderson and Scherbov (2005) we introduced a new forward-looking definition of age and argued that its use, along with the traditional backward-looking concept of age, provides a more informative basis upon which to discuss population aging. Age is
Learning and climate change
Learning – i.e., the acquisition of new information that leads to changes in our assessment of uncertainty – plays a prominent role in the international climate policy debate. For example, the view that we should postpone actions until we know more continues to be influential. The latest work on learning and climate change includes new theoretical models, better informed simulations of how learning affects the optimal timing of emissions reductio…
Church
The end of population growth in Asia
Are Individuals’ Desired Family Sizes Stable? Evidence from West German Panel Data
Projection of populations by level of educational attainment, age, and sex for 120 countries for 2005-2050
Using demographic multi-state, cohort-component methods, we produce projections for 120 countries (covering 93% of the world population in 2005) by five-year age groups, sex, and four levels of educational attainment for the years 2005-2050. Taking int
The Emergence of a Two-Child Norm among American Birth-Controllers
The main purpose of this article is to call attention to the often overlooked fact that below-replacement fertility is a macrodemographic phenomenon with a surprisingly long and intriguing history in the US. The analysis begins by explicitly noticing that a universal 2-or3-child program such as was called for by social theorists of neo-Malthusian persuasion during the 19th century was itself a sort of anti-population time bomb. Next it is shown t…
Is the Demographic Dividend an Education Dividend
The effect of changes in age structure on economic growth has been widely studied in the demography and population economics literature. The beneficial effect of changes in age structure after a decrease in fertility has become known as the “demographic dividend.” In this article, we reassess the empirical evidence on the associations among economic growth, changes in age structure, labor force participation, and educational attainment. Using a g…
Quantitative aspects of marriage, fertility and family limitation in nineteenth century America
This paper deals with three aspects of the decline in the fertility of white women in the United States from 1800 to 1920. The first concerns the portion of the secular decline in the total fertility rate which was due to changes in marriage rates and the portion due to decreases in marital fertility rates. The second concerns the fraction of couples in the nineteenth century who acted effectively to reduce their fertility and the third deals wit…
Cohort parity analysis
Cohort parity analysis (CPA) is a method for indirect measurement of the extent and timing of the adoption of fertility control within marriage. It uses information on the parity distribution of a cohort of women of specified marriage ages and durations. A multinomial model of parity provides a convenient framework for the computation of distributional parameters describing the extent to which marital fertility control has been accepted and chara…
A Simple Measure of Human Development
FOR MUCH OF the twentieth century, statistical measurements of human development emphasized economic magnitudes.In 1990, the United Nations offered an alternative and more comprehensive way of measuring human development, the Human Development Index (HDI) (UNDP 1990).The motivation behind the production of the HDI was that economic magnitudes alone provided too narrow a basis for assessing human development.The HDI represents a compromise between…
Are We Overly Dependent on Conventional Dependency Ratios
The dependency ratio and its components have had a long and productive life. Here we show that they are no longer the most accurate way of measuring important aspects of population aging. We present ratios related to employment, standardized workers and consumers, health care costs, pension costs, and who is old. These ratios are based either on new data or on new approaches to the study of population aging and are all available on the internet. …
A new perspective on population aging
In Sanderson and Scherbov (2005) we introduced a new forward-looking definition of age and argued that its use, along with the traditional backward-looking concept of age, provides a more informative basis upon which to discuss population aging. Age is
The Characteristics Approach to the Measurement of Population Aging
Conventional measures of population aging, such as proportions over age 65, can present a misleading picture of the aging process by not taking account of changes in people's characteristics beyond their chronological age-for example, changes in remaining life expectancy, health and morbidity, disability rates, and cognitive functioning. The "characteristics approach" set out in this article encompasses multiple features of population aging, yiel…
Expert-Based Probabilistic Population Projections
Most users of population projections are interested in one likely path of future population trends based on the best existing knowledge. Whether it is called the medium variant, central scenario, or median of an uncertainty distribution, this projected path will be taken as a forecast on which further considerations can be based. For many users such a best guess will suffice. It can be taken as an exogenous input into their own models for school …
Cohort Parity Analysis and Fertility Transition Dynamics
The Cohort Parity Analysis (CPA) method for the indirect measurement of the extent of marital fertility control makes use of parity distribution data of the kind reported, for specified marriage duration and marriage-age (or current age) groups of women, by a fertility census. Corresponding to every such distribution, CPA yields efficient upper and lower bounds on the proportion of controllers in the specified cohort, as well as bounds for the pa…
A Near Electoral Majority of Pensioners
In the first half of this century in many of today's developed countries, the proportion of voting age populations 65 years old or older will roughly double. As voting age populations age, the proportion of net contributors to national budgets (mainly through taxes) will fall and the proportion of net beneficiaries (mainly through public pension and health care benefits) will rise. By mid-century in many wealthy countries, a near majority of elec…
On Two Schools of the Economics of Fertility
For 10 years American economists have primarily been divided into 3 major groups those of Richard Easterlin and Gary Becker with dissidents forming the 3rd. Recently differences between the groups have narrowed and the remaining issues are of style rather than substance. From 1960 to 1966 Becker argued that variations in completed fertility could be understood within the economic framework used for the analysis of demand for durable goods. Easter…
New Approaches to the Conceptualization and Measurement of Age and Aging
Supplementing chronological age with ages that take into account the changing characteristics of people allows us to analyze aging more comprehensively and more accurately
Remeasuring Ageing in Southeast Asia
It is a commonly held view that Southeast Asian societies are ageing rapidly. This has led to a high evel of policy concern about the future capacity of states to cope with increased levels of 'old-age dependency' which, at first glance, often appear almost unmanageable. We suggest that the rates employed to demonstrate the present/future scale of 'old-age dependency' are msleading and based upon a Eurocentric notion from a bygone era. Arguing th…
Quantifying policy tradeoffs to support aging populations
Coping with aging populations is a challenge for most developed countries. Supporting non-working adults can create an unsustainable burden on those working. One way of dealing with this is to raise the normal pension age, but this has proven unpopular. A
The Uncertain Timing of Reaching 8 Billion, Peak World Population, and Other Demographic Milestones
We present new probabilistic forecasts of the timing of the world's population reaching 8 billion, the world's peak population, and the date at which one-third or more of the world's population would be 60+ years old. The timing of these milestones, as well as the timing of the Day of 7 Billion, is uncertain. We compute that the 60 percent prediction interval for the Day of 8 Billion is between 2024 and 2033. Our figures show that there is around…
Combined Measures of Upper and Lower Body Strength and Subgroup Differences in Subsequent Survival Among the Older Population of England
This result demonstrates the benefit of combining characteristics, using alpha-ages to convert incommensurate observations into a common metric
A New Perspective on Patterns of Aging in Europe by Education and Gender
Global and Regional Population Ageing
Below-Replacement Fertility in Nineteenth Century America
A 19th century example of below-relacement fertility in a large population is presented in an effort to broaden the discussion and to provide a historical perspective. White women of native parentage living in the urban areas of the Northeastern US in the late 19th century did not reproduce themselves. This statement is based on the data found in the 1:750 Public Use Sample of the US Census of 1900. Table 1 shows the mean number of surviving chil…
A Cliometric Reconsideration
Gutman's study of the black family is one of those books which serve as a constant inspiration to academics. In those dreary moments when we wrestle with a particularly subtle point or phrase, a fleeting question occurs to most of us. How many people will really appreciate the depth of our thinking or the way in which the prose really captures the essence of the phenomenon being explained? But when such pernicious thoughts disturb our concentrati…
The Fertility of American Women Since 1920
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
The Fertility of American Women Since 1920
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
Does the Theory of Demand Need the Maximum Principle?
On Two Schools of the Economics of Fertility
For 10 years American economists have primarily been divided into 3 major groups those of Richard Easterlin and Gary Becker with dissidents forming the 3rd. Recently differences between the groups have narrowed and the remaining issues are of style rather than substance. From 1960 to 1966 Becker argued that variations in completed fertility could be understood within the economic framework used for the analysis of demand for durable goods. Easter…
Herbert Gutman’s The Black Family in Slavery and Freedom, 1750-1925
Gutman’s study of the black family is one of those books which serve as a constant inspiration to academics. In those dreary moments when we wrestle with a particularly subtle point or phrase, a fleeting question occurs to most of us. How many people will really appreciate the depth of our thinking or the way in which the prose really captures the essence of the phenomenon being explained? But when such pernicious thoughts disturb our concentrati…
A Cliometric Reconsideration
Gutman's study of the black family is one of those books which serve as a constant inspiration to academics. In those dreary moments when we wrestle with a particularly subtle point or phrase, a fleeting question occurs to most of us. How many people will really appreciate the depth of our thinking or the way in which the prose really captures the essence of the phenomenon being explained? But when such pernicious thoughts disturb our concentrati…
Quantitative aspects of marriage, fertility and family limitation in nineteenth century America
This paper deals with three aspects of the decline in the fertility of white women in the United States from 1800 to 1920. The first concerns the portion of the secular decline in the total fertility rate which was due to changes in marriage rates and the portion due to decreases in marital fertility rates. The second concerns the fraction of couples in the nineteenth century who acted effectively to reduce their fertility and the third deals wit…
Economic-Demographic Simulation Models
"This paper assesses the usefulness of economic-demographic simulation models for policy analysis, emphasizing in particular the relevance of the current state of the art for agricultural development planners. A critical review of eight models defines the range of questions that can be answered with particular models, evaluating the reasonableness of their specifications and the probable quality of their performance. Suggestions concerning furthe…
A Nonutilitarian Economic Model of Fertility and Female Labor Force Participation
Sanderson Warren C. A nonutilitarian Economic Model of Fertility and Female Labor Force Participation. In: Revue économique, volume 31, n°6, 1980. pp. 1045-1080
The Emergence of a Two-Child Norm among American Birth-Controllers
The main purpose of this article is to call attention to the often overlooked fact that below-replacement fertility is a macrodemographic phenomenon with a surprisingly long and intriguing history in the US. The analysis begins by explicitly noticing that a universal 2-or3-child program such as was called for by social theorists of neo-Malthusian persuasion during the 19th century was itself a sort of anti-population time bomb. Next it is shown t…
Below-Replacement Fertility in Nineteenth Century America
A 19th century example of below-relacement fertility in a large population is presented in an effort to broaden the discussion and to provide a historical perspective. White women of native parentage living in the urban areas of the Northeastern US in the late 19th century did not reproduce themselves. This statement is based on the data found in the 1:750 Public Use Sample of the US Census of 1900. Table 1 shows the mean number of surviving chil…
Cohort parity analysis
Cohort parity analysis (CPA) is a method for indirect measurement of the extent and timing of the adoption of fertility control within marriage. It uses information on the parity distribution of a cohort of women of specified marriage ages and durations. A multinomial model of parity provides a convenient framework for the computation of distributional parameters describing the extent to which marital fertility control has been accepted and chara…
Die romanischen Wandmalereien in der Klosterkirche Prüfening . Heidrun Stein
Cohort Parity Analysis and Fertility Transition Dynamics
The Cohort Parity Analysis (CPA) method for the indirect measurement of the extent of marital fertility control makes use of parity distribution data of the kind reported, for specified marriage duration and marriage-age (or current age) groups of women, by a fertility census. Corresponding to every such distribution, CPA yields efficient upper and lower bounds on the proportion of controllers in the specified cohort, as well as bounds for the pa…
Population in Asia
Population in Asia
Knowledge Can Improve Forecasts
Since Nathan Keyfitz wrote that knowledge could not improve forecasts there has been a presumption that causal modeling has little to contribute to demographic forecasting. However this presumption should be reversed since combining forecasts from causal models with those of the UN produced more accurate predictions than those of the UN. This occurs because the forecast errors from the causal models and those of the UN are not highly correlated a…
Expert-Based Probabilistic Population Projections
Most users of population projections are interested in one likely path of future population trends based on the best existing knowledge. Whether it is called the medium variant, central scenario, or median of an uncertainty distribution, this projected path will be taken as a forecast on which further considerations can be based. For many users such a best guess will suffice. It can be taken as an exogenous input into their own models for school …
The end of world population growth
Church
The end of population growth in Asia
Learning and climate change
Learning – i.e., the acquisition of new information that leads to changes in our assessment of uncertainty – plays a prominent role in the international climate policy debate. For example, the view that we should postpone actions until we know more continues to be influential. The latest work on learning and climate change includes new theoretical models, better informed simulations of how learning affects the optimal timing of emissions reductio…
A Near Electoral Majority of Pensioners
In the first half of this century in many of today's developed countries, the proportion of voting age populations 65 years old or older will roughly double. As voting age populations age, the proportion of net contributors to national budgets (mainly through taxes) will fall and the proportion of net beneficiaries (mainly through public pension and health care benefits) will rise. By mid-century in many wealthy countries, a near majority of elec…
A new perspective on population aging
In Sanderson and Scherbov (2005) we introduced a new forward-looking definition of age and argued that its use, along with the traditional backward-looking concept of age, provides a more informative basis upon which to discuss population aging. Age is
The Demography of Educational Attainment and Economic Growth
Complementing primary education with secondary education in broad segments of the population is likely to give a strong boost to economic growth.
The coming acceleration of global population ageing
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