Andrea Saltelli
Datos Biográficos
| ID | 272794 |
|---|---|
| NOMBRE | Andrea Saltelli |
| NOMBRES | Andrea |
| APELLIDO | Saltelli |
| FIRMA | SALTELLI A |
| AFILIACIONES | Barcelona School of Economics |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-4222-6975 |
| VERIFICADO | Sí |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 32 |
| TOTAL DE CITAS | 299 |
| OBRAS COMO AUTOR | 31 |
| OBRAS COMO EDITOR | 1 |
| PRIMER AÑO DE PUBLICACIÓN | 2005 |
| AÑO MÁS RECIENTE DE PUBLICACIÓN | 2026 |
| ÍNDICE H | 8 |
Science Under Siege and the Migration of Scientific Authority
that contemporary disputes over climate change, vaccines, and public expertise are driven by organized antiscience forces.The book is written as both a diagnosis and a warning: it identifies a coalition of economic, political, and media actors that, in the authors' view, systematically undermines scientific authority and obstructs collective action.The perspective offered is that attacks on science are neither episodic nor accidental, but politic…
The Price of Prestige
University rankings powerfully shape strategy and policy, yet they say little about what students pay. This paper introduces a simple, replicable benchmark that juxtaposes posted undergraduate fees with rank positions for 112 European universities listed in both ARWU and THE WUR (2018). Using a combined rank indicator and descriptive comparisons, we show a pronounced decoupling: low‐fee institutions appear span the rank spectrum, whereas many hig…
What is the best tobacco control policy in Tuscany? An assessment using uncertainty analysis
The approach shows promise for identifying key sources of uncertainty and guiding public health strategies. Although uncertainty limits the precise quantification of future dynamics and impacts, the TCP1 is likely to exert the strongest long-term effect on reducing smoking prevalence, while cessation interventions remain essential for achieving short-term reductions in smoking-attributable mortality
Ranking the rankers. An analysis of science-wide author databases of standardised citation indicators
Energy policy-making in the European Union between past and present
We use instruments from sociology of quantification to investigate a persistent paradox: the problematic technical quality of modelling studies when these are aimed at policy analysis. We review new and old instances of this paradox, focusing specifically on two energy assessment studies: one performed in the eighties and one recent. We apply sensitivity auditing, an existing checklist for the quality of quantification at the science-policy inter…
Digital Twins of the Earth Between Vision and Fiction
Digital replicas (or twins) of the entire planet and of its inhabitants are being actively proposed by the research community for a variety of purposes, with a focus on climate adaptation and mitigation. Since mathematical modelling is at the core of this digital enterprise, we undertake to explore the possible limits of models in creating twins of the Earth by recalling some of the existing visions about the nature and function of mathematical m…
Bring digital twins back to Earth
We reflect on the development of digital twins of the Earth, which we associate with a reductionist view of nature as a machine. The projects of digital twins deviate from contemporary scientific paradigms in the treatment of complexity and uncertainty, and does not engage with critical and interpretative social sciences. We contest the utility of digital twins for addressing climate change issues and discuss societal risks associated with the co…
The Politics of Modelling
Climate change and COVID-19 have brought mathematical models into the forefront of politics and decision-making, where they are now being used to justify momentous and often controversial decisions. Such models are technically very complex, and sources of political authority. Yet disagreement among experts fuels a growing uneasiness about the quality and significance of the numbers that models produce. This multidisciplinary volume takes a critic…
The more things change, the more they stay the same
This editorial lays out the core themes of the special feature and provides an overview of the contributions. It introduces the main argument, namely that the promises of far-reaching change made by recent bioeconomy policies are in fact strategically directed at avoiding transformative change to existing societal arrangements. Bioeconomy discourse showcases technological solutions purported to solve sustainability ‘problems’ while sustaining eco…
Impact assessment culture in the European Union. Time for something new
Current approaches and cultures for the economic evaluations of environmental and health policies may suffer from excessive reliance on a standard neoclassic economic toolbox that neglects alternative perspectives. This may prematurely limit the spectrum of available policy options. Here we show how the inclusion of neglected currents of thought such as non-Ricardian economics, bioeconomics and a set of qualitative-quantitative methods from post-…
What can mathematical modelling contribute to a sociology of quantification
Sociology of quantification has spent relatively less energies investigating mathematical modelling than it has on other forms of quantification such as statistics, metrics, or algorithms based on artificial intelligence. Here we investigate whether concepts and approaches from mathematical modelling can provide sociology of quantification with nuanced tools to ensure the methodological soundness, normative adequacy and fairness of numbers. We su…
Large variations in global irrigation withdrawals caused by uncertain irrigation efficiencies
An assessment of the human impact on the global water cycle requires estimating the volume of water withdrawn for irrigated agriculture. A key parameter in this calculation is the irrigation efficiency, which corrects for the fraction of water lost between irrigation withdrawals and the crop due to management, distribution or conveyance losses. Here we show that the irrigation efficiency used in global irrigation models is flawed for it overlooks…
The Challenge of Quantification
The present work looks at what we call "the multiverse of quantification", where visible and invisible numbers permeate all aspects and venues of life. We review the contributions of different authors who focus on the roles of quantification in society, with the aim of capturing different and sometimes separate voices. Several scholars, including economists, jurists, philosophers, sociologists, communication and data scientists, express concerns …
Science, the endless frontier of regulatory capture
In this paper we explore five recent cases of regulatory capture in Europe and zoom in on a form of corporate penetration which is based on a strategic use of the image and legitimacy of science. We examine cases in which lobbyists present themselves as upholders of science and of evidence-based policy, intervene directly in the methodological and ethical aspects of science for policy-making, thus imprinting their own agenda on the societal funct…
Five ways to ensure that models serve society
From sociology of quantification to ethics of quantification
Quantifications are produced by several disciplinary houses in a myriad of different styles. The concerns about unethical use of algorithms, unintended consequences of metrics, as well as the warning about statistical and mathematical malpractices are all part of a general malaise, symptoms of our tight addiction to quantification. What problems are shared by all these instances of quantification? After reviewing existing concerns about different…
Ethics of quantification
The increasing use of quantification in all spheres of society is paralleled by the rise of digitalisation. These intertwining developments not only revolutionise data treatment, but also its societal effects. On the one hand, they have wonderfully enabling societal effects. On the other hand, they give rise to complex ethical dilemmas that motivate this call for an ethics of quantification. The central claim of this Comment is that quantificatio…
The technique is never neutral. How methodological choices condition the generation of narratives for sustainability
How to tackle uncertainties and ensure quality in integrated assessment for sustainability? To what extent does the choice of the methodology condition the narrative produced by the analysis? The present work argues that the two questions are tightly coupled. The technique is never neutral. If we are the tools of our tools, as suggested by Thoreau, then it can also be said that language is not only a vehicle for communication, it is the driver as…
Technoscience, policy and the new media. Nexus or vortex
Science, technology and policy are today entangled in concurrent crises, rapid transformations and conflicts, which are alimented by an ever-accelerating media system. Existing attempts to capture separate elements of crisis miss their structural coupling, and are hence ineffective. The crisis has elements of inevitability linked to our addiction to technology and communication. Using elementary concepts from social system theory, and reconnectin…
Ethics of quantification or quantification of ethics
Something can be gained by looking at common ethical features of different instances of quantification. While ethics of algorithms is perceived at present as an urgent issue, similar concerns can easily be associated to the use of metrics, of statistical inference, and of mathematical modelling. By reviewing these common features, strategies of resistance can be imagined to cope with computational dystopias, metrics fixation and numerical abuse
Quantitative Storytelling in the Making of a Composite Indicator
The reasons for and against composite indicators are briefly reviewed, as well as the available theories for their construction. After noting the strong normative dimension of these measures-which ultimately aim to 'tell a story', e.g. to promote the social discovery of a particular phenomenon, we inquire whether a less partisan use of a composite indicator can be proposed by allowing more latitude in the framing of its construction. We thus expl…
Why science’s crisis should not become a political battling ground
A science war is in full swing which has taken science’s reproducibility crisis as a battleground. While conservatives and corporate interests use the crisis to weaken regulations, their opponent deny the existence of a science’s crisis altogether. Thus, for the conservative National Association of Scholars NAS the crisis is real and due to the progressive assault on higher education with ideologies such as “neo-Marxism, radical feminism, histori…
What is science’s crisis really about
Science’s crisis is real. A resolution is not in sight, but a Reformation is not impossible. • The mainstream interpretation of the root causes of the crisis (perverse incentive, too many papers) is insufficient. • The crisis is due to a transformed role: from emancipation and betterment of mankind to instrument of profit and growth • Scientists cannot resolve the problem alone and have high stakes in the preservation of the status quo. • Institu…
Post-normal institutional identities
This paper suggests adopting a 'post-normal science' (PNS) style and practice in scientific advice, and motivate the urgency of this methodological stance with the increasing complexity, and polarisation affecting the use of science-based evidence for policy. We reflect on challenges and opportunities faced by a 'boundary organisation' that interfaces between science and policy, taking as example the European Commission's Directorate General Join…
What is wrong with evidence based policy, and how can it be improved
The present crisis of science’s governance, affecting science’s reproducibility, scientific peer review and science’s integrity, offers a chance to reconsider evidence based policy as it is being practiced at present. Current evidence based policy exercises entail forms of quantification – often in the form of risk analysis or cost benefit analyses – which aim to optimize one among a set of policy options corresponding to a generally single frami…
Composite Indicators between Analysis and Advocacy
What is wrong with evidence based policy, and how can it be improved
The present crisis of science’s governance, affecting science’s reproducibility, scientific peer review and science’s integrity, offers a chance to reconsider evidence based policy as it is being practiced at present. Current evidence based policy exercises entail forms of quantification – often in the form of risk analysis or cost benefit analyses – which aim to optimize one among a set of policy options corresponding to a generally single frami…
What is science’s crisis really about
Science’s crisis is real. A resolution is not in sight, but a Reformation is not impossible. • The mainstream interpretation of the root causes of the crisis (perverse incentive, too many papers) is insufficient. • The crisis is due to a transformed role: from emancipation and betterment of mankind to instrument of profit and growth • Scientists cannot resolve the problem alone and have high stakes in the preservation of the status quo. • Institu…
Quantitative Storytelling in the Making of a Composite Indicator
The reasons for and against composite indicators are briefly reviewed, as well as the available theories for their construction. After noting the strong normative dimension of these measures-which ultimately aim to 'tell a story', e.g. to promote the social discovery of a particular phenomenon, we inquire whether a less partisan use of a composite indicator can be proposed by allowing more latitude in the framing of its construction. We thus expl…
The technique is never neutral. How methodological choices condition the generation of narratives for sustainability
How to tackle uncertainties and ensure quality in integrated assessment for sustainability? To what extent does the choice of the methodology condition the narrative produced by the analysis? The present work argues that the two questions are tightly coupled. The technique is never neutral. If we are the tools of our tools, as suggested by Thoreau, then it can also be said that language is not only a vehicle for communication, it is the driver as…
Post-normal institutional identities
This paper suggests adopting a 'post-normal science' (PNS) style and practice in scientific advice, and motivate the urgency of this methodological stance with the increasing complexity, and polarisation affecting the use of science-based evidence for policy. We reflect on challenges and opportunities faced by a 'boundary organisation' that interfaces between science and policy, taking as example the European Commission's Directorate General Join…
Ethics of quantification or quantification of ethics
Something can be gained by looking at common ethical features of different instances of quantification. While ethics of algorithms is perceived at present as an urgent issue, similar concerns can easily be associated to the use of metrics, of statistical inference, and of mathematical modelling. By reviewing these common features, strategies of resistance can be imagined to cope with computational dystopias, metrics fixation and numerical abuse
Why science’s crisis should not become a political battling ground
A science war is in full swing which has taken science’s reproducibility crisis as a battleground. While conservatives and corporate interests use the crisis to weaken regulations, their opponent deny the existence of a science’s crisis altogether. Thus, for the conservative National Association of Scholars NAS the crisis is real and due to the progressive assault on higher education with ideologies such as “neo-Marxism, radical feminism, histori…
Indicators for European Union Policies. Business as Usual
The more things change, the more they stay the same
This editorial lays out the core themes of the special feature and provides an overview of the contributions. It introduces the main argument, namely that the promises of far-reaching change made by recent bioeconomy policies are in fact strategically directed at avoiding transformative change to existing societal arrangements. Bioeconomy discourse showcases technological solutions purported to solve sustainability ‘problems’ while sustaining eco…
Science, the endless frontier of regulatory capture
In this paper we explore five recent cases of regulatory capture in Europe and zoom in on a form of corporate penetration which is based on a strategic use of the image and legitimacy of science. We examine cases in which lobbyists present themselves as upholders of science and of evidence-based policy, intervene directly in the methodological and ethical aspects of science for policy-making, thus imprinting their own agenda on the societal funct…
Impact assessment culture in the European Union. Time for something new
Current approaches and cultures for the economic evaluations of environmental and health policies may suffer from excessive reliance on a standard neoclassic economic toolbox that neglects alternative perspectives. This may prematurely limit the spectrum of available policy options. Here we show how the inclusion of neglected currents of thought such as non-Ricardian economics, bioeconomics and a set of qualitative-quantitative methods from post-…
Technoscience, policy and the new media. Nexus or vortex
Science, technology and policy are today entangled in concurrent crises, rapid transformations and conflicts, which are alimented by an ever-accelerating media system. Existing attempts to capture separate elements of crisis miss their structural coupling, and are hence ineffective. The crisis has elements of inevitability linked to our addiction to technology and communication. Using elementary concepts from social system theory, and reconnectin…
Bring digital twins back to Earth
We reflect on the development of digital twins of the Earth, which we associate with a reductionist view of nature as a machine. The projects of digital twins deviate from contemporary scientific paradigms in the treatment of complexity and uncertainty, and does not engage with critical and interpretative social sciences. We contest the utility of digital twins for addressing climate change issues and discuss societal risks associated with the co…
Digital Twins of the Earth Between Vision and Fiction
Digital replicas (or twins) of the entire planet and of its inhabitants are being actively proposed by the research community for a variety of purposes, with a focus on climate adaptation and mitigation. Since mathematical modelling is at the core of this digital enterprise, we undertake to explore the possible limits of models in creating twins of the Earth by recalling some of the existing visions about the nature and function of mathematical m…
What can mathematical modelling contribute to a sociology of quantification
Sociology of quantification has spent relatively less energies investigating mathematical modelling than it has on other forms of quantification such as statistics, metrics, or algorithms based on artificial intelligence. Here we investigate whether concepts and approaches from mathematical modelling can provide sociology of quantification with nuanced tools to ensure the methodological soundness, normative adequacy and fairness of numbers. We su…
The Challenge of Quantification
The present work looks at what we call "the multiverse of quantification", where visible and invisible numbers permeate all aspects and venues of life. We review the contributions of different authors who focus on the roles of quantification in society, with the aim of capturing different and sometimes separate voices. Several scholars, including economists, jurists, philosophers, sociologists, communication and data scientists, express concerns …
Unpacking the modelling process via sensitivity auditing
Acknowledging the conditionality of model-based evidence facilitates the dialogue between model developers and model users, especially when models are used to guide decisions at the science-policy interface. In general, model users have limited access to verify the realism of a model, being only exposed to model plausibility and trustworthiness; instead, modellers have an an array of validation and verification techniques available. In the end, m…
Handbook on Constructing Composite Indicators
This Handbook aims to provide a guide for constructing and using composite indicators for policy makers, academics, the media and other interested parties. While there are several types of composite indicators, this Handbook is concerned with those which compare and rank country performance in areas such as industrial competitiveness, sustainable development, globalisation and innovation. The Handbook aims to contribute to a better understanding …
Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Techniques as Tools for the Quality Assessment of Composite Indicators
Composite indicators are increasingly used for bench-marking countries’ performances. Yet doubts are often raised about the robustness of the resulting countries’ rankings and about the significance of the associated policy message. We propose the use of uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis to gain useful insights during the process of building composite indicators, including a contribution to the indicators’ definition of quality and an…
Composite Indicators between Analysis and Advocacy
Indicators for European Union Policies. Business as Usual
Rickety numbers
Ratings and Rankings
Composite indicators aggregate a set of variables by using weights which are understood to reflect the variables’ importance in the index. We propose to measure the importance of a given variable within existing composite indicators via Karl Pearson’s ‘correlation ratio’; we call this measure the ‘main effect’. Because socio-economic variables are heteroscedastic and correlated, relative nominal weights are hardly ever found to match relative mai…
What is science’s crisis really about
Science’s crisis is real. A resolution is not in sight, but a Reformation is not impossible. • The mainstream interpretation of the root causes of the crisis (perverse incentive, too many papers) is insufficient. • The crisis is due to a transformed role: from emancipation and betterment of mankind to instrument of profit and growth • Scientists cannot resolve the problem alone and have high stakes in the preservation of the status quo. • Institu…
Post-normal institutional identities
This paper suggests adopting a 'post-normal science' (PNS) style and practice in scientific advice, and motivate the urgency of this methodological stance with the increasing complexity, and polarisation affecting the use of science-based evidence for policy. We reflect on challenges and opportunities faced by a 'boundary organisation' that interfaces between science and policy, taking as example the European Commission's Directorate General Join…
What is wrong with evidence based policy, and how can it be improved
The present crisis of science’s governance, affecting science’s reproducibility, scientific peer review and science’s integrity, offers a chance to reconsider evidence based policy as it is being practiced at present. Current evidence based policy exercises entail forms of quantification – often in the form of risk analysis or cost benefit analyses – which aim to optimize one among a set of policy options corresponding to a generally single frami…
Why science’s crisis should not become a political battling ground
A science war is in full swing which has taken science’s reproducibility crisis as a battleground. While conservatives and corporate interests use the crisis to weaken regulations, their opponent deny the existence of a science’s crisis altogether. Thus, for the conservative National Association of Scholars NAS the crisis is real and due to the progressive assault on higher education with ideologies such as “neo-Marxism, radical feminism, histori…
Five ways to ensure that models serve society
From sociology of quantification to ethics of quantification
Quantifications are produced by several disciplinary houses in a myriad of different styles. The concerns about unethical use of algorithms, unintended consequences of metrics, as well as the warning about statistical and mathematical malpractices are all part of a general malaise, symptoms of our tight addiction to quantification. What problems are shared by all these instances of quantification? After reviewing existing concerns about different…
Ethics of quantification
The increasing use of quantification in all spheres of society is paralleled by the rise of digitalisation. These intertwining developments not only revolutionise data treatment, but also its societal effects. On the one hand, they have wonderfully enabling societal effects. On the other hand, they give rise to complex ethical dilemmas that motivate this call for an ethics of quantification. The central claim of this Comment is that quantificatio…
The technique is never neutral. How methodological choices condition the generation of narratives for sustainability
How to tackle uncertainties and ensure quality in integrated assessment for sustainability? To what extent does the choice of the methodology condition the narrative produced by the analysis? The present work argues that the two questions are tightly coupled. The technique is never neutral. If we are the tools of our tools, as suggested by Thoreau, then it can also be said that language is not only a vehicle for communication, it is the driver as…
Technoscience, policy and the new media. Nexus or vortex
Science, technology and policy are today entangled in concurrent crises, rapid transformations and conflicts, which are alimented by an ever-accelerating media system. Existing attempts to capture separate elements of crisis miss their structural coupling, and are hence ineffective. The crisis has elements of inevitability linked to our addiction to technology and communication. Using elementary concepts from social system theory, and reconnectin…
Ethics of quantification or quantification of ethics
Something can be gained by looking at common ethical features of different instances of quantification. While ethics of algorithms is perceived at present as an urgent issue, similar concerns can easily be associated to the use of metrics, of statistical inference, and of mathematical modelling. By reviewing these common features, strategies of resistance can be imagined to cope with computational dystopias, metrics fixation and numerical abuse
Quantitative Storytelling in the Making of a Composite Indicator
The reasons for and against composite indicators are briefly reviewed, as well as the available theories for their construction. After noting the strong normative dimension of these measures-which ultimately aim to 'tell a story', e.g. to promote the social discovery of a particular phenomenon, we inquire whether a less partisan use of a composite indicator can be proposed by allowing more latitude in the framing of its construction. We thus expl…
Large variations in global irrigation withdrawals caused by uncertain irrigation efficiencies
An assessment of the human impact on the global water cycle requires estimating the volume of water withdrawn for irrigated agriculture. A key parameter in this calculation is the irrigation efficiency, which corrects for the fraction of water lost between irrigation withdrawals and the crop due to management, distribution or conveyance losses. Here we show that the irrigation efficiency used in global irrigation models is flawed for it overlooks…
The Challenge of Quantification
The present work looks at what we call "the multiverse of quantification", where visible and invisible numbers permeate all aspects and venues of life. We review the contributions of different authors who focus on the roles of quantification in society, with the aim of capturing different and sometimes separate voices. Several scholars, including economists, jurists, philosophers, sociologists, communication and data scientists, express concerns …
Science, the endless frontier of regulatory capture
In this paper we explore five recent cases of regulatory capture in Europe and zoom in on a form of corporate penetration which is based on a strategic use of the image and legitimacy of science. We examine cases in which lobbyists present themselves as upholders of science and of evidence-based policy, intervene directly in the methodological and ethical aspects of science for policy-making, thus imprinting their own agenda on the societal funct…
The Politics of Modelling
Climate change and COVID-19 have brought mathematical models into the forefront of politics and decision-making, where they are now being used to justify momentous and often controversial decisions. Such models are technically very complex, and sources of political authority. Yet disagreement among experts fuels a growing uneasiness about the quality and significance of the numbers that models produce. This multidisciplinary volume takes a critic…
The more things change, the more they stay the same
This editorial lays out the core themes of the special feature and provides an overview of the contributions. It introduces the main argument, namely that the promises of far-reaching change made by recent bioeconomy policies are in fact strategically directed at avoiding transformative change to existing societal arrangements. Bioeconomy discourse showcases technological solutions purported to solve sustainability ‘problems’ while sustaining eco…
Impact assessment culture in the European Union. Time for something new
Current approaches and cultures for the economic evaluations of environmental and health policies may suffer from excessive reliance on a standard neoclassic economic toolbox that neglects alternative perspectives. This may prematurely limit the spectrum of available policy options. Here we show how the inclusion of neglected currents of thought such as non-Ricardian economics, bioeconomics and a set of qualitative-quantitative methods from post-…
What can mathematical modelling contribute to a sociology of quantification
Sociology of quantification has spent relatively less energies investigating mathematical modelling than it has on other forms of quantification such as statistics, metrics, or algorithms based on artificial intelligence. Here we investigate whether concepts and approaches from mathematical modelling can provide sociology of quantification with nuanced tools to ensure the methodological soundness, normative adequacy and fairness of numbers. We su…
Bring digital twins back to Earth
We reflect on the development of digital twins of the Earth, which we associate with a reductionist view of nature as a machine. The projects of digital twins deviate from contemporary scientific paradigms in the treatment of complexity and uncertainty, and does not engage with critical and interpretative social sciences. We contest the utility of digital twins for addressing climate change issues and discuss societal risks associated with the co…
Political science (21 obras) · Sociology (21 obras) · Computer Science (18 obras) · Law (17 obras) · Economics (15 obras) · Epistemology (12 obras) · Law (12 obras) · Social science (12 obras) · Engineering (9 obras) · Data science (6 obras)