Vincent Arel-Bundock
Datos Biográficos
| ID | 300745 |
|---|---|
| NOMBRE | Vincent Arel-Bundock |
| NOMBRES | Vincent |
| APELLIDO | Arel-Bundock |
| FIRMA | AREL-BUNDOCK V |
| AFILIACIONES | Université de Montréal |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-2042-7063 |
| VERIFICADO | Sí |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 27 |
| TOTAL DE CITAS | 213 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 27 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMER AÑO DE PUBLICACIÓN | 2009 |
| AÑO MÁS RECIENTE DE PUBLICACIÓN | 2026 |
| ÍNDICE H | 8 |
Buy-in for Buyouts
Political reforms are often blocked by concentrated interest groups. An overlooked response is to “buy out” such groups, offering compensation in return for pushing through reforms. We present the theoretical case for and against buyouts and test public support through survey experiments on three policy proposals: phasing out coal energy, simplifying tax filing, and granting dictators amnesty. Buyouts gain majority support, but this depends on pa…
Models as Prediction Machines
Psychological researchers usually make sense of regression models by interpreting coefficient estimates directly. This works well enough for simple linear models but is challenging for more complex models with, for example, categorical variables, interactions, nonlinearities, or hierarchical structures. Here, we introduce an alternative approach to making sense of statistical models. The central idea is to abstract away from the mechanics of esti…
What do citizens in tax havens think? The EU blacklist and public opinion in Switzerland
Contains fulltext : 320067.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Open Access)
What do central bankers talk about when they talk about inflation? The rise and fall of inflation narratives
Quantitative Political Science Research Is Greatly Underpowered
The social sciences face a replicability crisis. A key determinant of replication success is statistical power. We assess the power of political science research by collating over 16,000 hypothesis tests from about 2,000 articles in 46 areas of the discipline. Under generous assumptions, we show that quantitative research in political science is greatly underpowered: the median analysis has about 10% power, and only about 1 in 10 tests have at le…
How to Interpret Statistical Models Using marginaleffects for R and Python
The parameters of a statistical model can sometimes be difficult to interpret substantively, especially when that model includes nonlinear components, interactions, or transformations. Analysts who fit such complex models often seek to transform raw parameter estimates into quantities that are easier for domain experts and stakeholders to understand. This article presents a simple conceptual framework to describe a vast array of such quantities o…
The Power of Boilerplate
How do states exercise power in complex, decentralized governance regimes? This article sheds light on this question by analyzing one of the pillars of the post-war economic order: the international tax regime. The taxation of multinational enterprises is governed by a system composed of thousands of Bilateral Tax Treaties signed between pairs of national governments. We argue that despite the bilateral nature of these treaties, their legal conte…
Outgroup Bias and the Unacceptability of Tax Fraud
In countries with well-developed welfare state systems, it is often claimed that racial or ethnic minorities impose a heavy burden on social assistance programs without contributing to public goods. In this study, we consider the attitudinal effects of anecdotal reports of tax cheating by minorities. We conduct survey experiments in France and the United States to assess if people react more harshly to tax fraud perpetrated by members of a minori…
Jobs and Punishment
Governments routinely offer deals to companies accused of white-collar crimes, allowing them to escape criminal charges in exchange for fines or penalties. This lets prosecutors avoid costly litigation and protects companies’ right to bid on lucrative public contracts, which can reduce the likelihood of bankruptcies or layoffs. Striking deals with white-collar criminals can be risky for governments because it could affect the perceived legitimacy…
Software Citations in Political Science
Political scientists rely on complex software to conduct research, and much of the software they use is written and distributed for free by other researchers. This article contends that creating and maintaining these public goods is costly for individual software developers but that it is not adequately incentivized by the academic community. We demonstrate that statistical software is used widely but rarely cited in political science, and we hig…
Where Should Multinationals Pay Taxes
The international tax system is a pillar of the post-war economic order, but it faces major challenges with the rise of global value chains, digitalization, and tax avoidance. Debates over international tax reform usually occur within a small epistemic community of experts and technocrats. In this article, we step outside this restricted circle to assess the sources of bottom-up legitimacy and support for the rules that govern where multinational…
Party preference representation
Political parties are key actors in electoral democracies: they organize the legislature, form governments, and citizens choose their representatives by voting for them. How citizens evaluate political parties and how well the parties that citizens evaluate positively perform thus provide useful tools to estimate the quality of representation from the individual’s perspective. We propose a measure that can be used to assess party preference repre…
The Double Bind of Qualitative Comparative Analysis
Qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) is an influential methodological approach motivated by set theory and boolean logic. QCA proponents have developed algorithms to analyze quantitative data, in a bid to uncover necessary and sufficient conditions where causal relationships are complex, conditional, or asymmetric. This article uses computer simulations to show that researchers in the QCA tradition face a vexing double bind. On the one hand, QC…
Analyse causale et méthodes quantitatives
"L'analyse causale est une des tâches principales du scientifique. Un criminologue évalue l'effet d'une sentence sur la probabilité qu'un condamné récidive. Une économiste mesure l'effet de la discrimination raciale sur les perspectives d'emploi d'un immigrant. Un politologue étudie l'effet des médias sociaux sur la popularité des partis d'extrême droite. Une spécialiste du marketing jauge l'effet d'une campagne publicitaire sur les choix des con…
Do Voters Benchmark Economic Performance
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
The market, the state and satisfaction with democracy
Satisfaction with democracy is driven by the two mechanisms that affect citizens’ income: the market and the state. When people consider that the levels of economic growth and redistribution are sufficient, they are more satisfied with the performance of democratic institutions. This relationship is moderated by personal income: since low-income citizens are more sensitive to changes in personal economic circumstances than high-income citizens, t…
Political Risk Insurance
When do governments impose costs on foreign firms? Many studies of foreign direct investment focus on incentives for government expropriation, but scholars are often forced to rely on indirect measures of expropriation to conduct empirical analyses. This article introduces a data set which includes information on over 5,000 political risk insurance contracts issued by the US Overseas Private Investment Corporation since 1961, and on all the claim…
Logarithmic versus Linear Visualizations of Covid-19 Cases Do Not Affect Citizens’ Support for Confinement
The SARS-CoV-2 virus was first identified in Wuhan, China, in late December 2019, and it quickly spread to many countries. By March 2020, the virus had triggered a global pandemic (World Health Organization, 2020). In response to this crisis, governments have implemented unprecedented public health measures. The success of these policies will largely depend on the public's willingness to comply with new rules. A key factor in citizens’ willingnes…
Satisfaction with Democracy and the American Dream
Many studies show that past and current economic conditions are strong determinants of citizens' attitudes toward government and political institutions. In this article, we develop a forward-looking theory and argue that economic expectations also drive the level of satisfaction with democracy. Crucially, we contend that this relationship is conditional: hope for a better tomorrow matters more to the poor and to those who live in less affluent co…
Do Women Get Fewer Votes? No
We study data on the gender of more than 21,000 unique candidates in all Canadian federal elections since 1921, when the first women ran for seats in Parliament. This large data set allows us to compute precise estimates of the difference in the electoral fortunes of men and women candidates. When accounting for party effects and time trends, we find that the difference between the vote shares of men and women is substantively negligible (±0.5 pe…
Adding rooms onto a house we love
This article examines the extent to which central bankers have been willing and able to rethink their beliefs about monetary policy in the wake of the global financial crisis. We show that despite the upheaval, the core pre‐crisis monetary policy paradigm remains relatively intact: central bankers believe that they should primarily pursue price stability through targeting a low inflation rate in a transparent manner, and that they need operationa…
When Can Multiple Imputation Improve Regression Estimates
Multiple imputation (MI) is often presented as an improvement over listwise deletion (LWD) for regression estimation in the presence of missing data. Against a common view, we demonstrate anew that the complete case estimator can be unbiased, even if data are not missing completely at random. As long as the analyst can control for the determinants of missingness, MI offers no benefit over LWD for bias reduction in regression analysis. We highligh…
Conditional tax competition in American states
Cross-border commercial activity raises issues in federations where multiple jurisdictions can claim the right to tax the same income. In the United States, this coordination problem is resolved by splitting the tax base according to the geographic distribution of firms’ sales, capital and labour. The weight of each factor is determined on a state-by-state basis, which opens room for competitive legislative behaviour. In this complex issue area, …
The Unintended Consequences of Bilateralism
The international tax system is a complex regime composed of thousands of bilateral tax treaties. These agreements coordinate policies between countries to avoid double taxation and encourage international investment. I argue that by solving this coordination problem on a bilateral basis, states have inadvertently created opportunities for treaty shopping by multinationals. These opportunities, in turn, reduce the potency of fiscal policy, put pr…
The Political Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment
Many large-N cross-national studies claim to show that political institutions and phenomena determine where foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. In this article, I argue that these studies tend to overemphasize statistical significance and often neglect to assess the explanatory or predictive power of their theories. To illustrate the problem, I estimate variations of a statistical model published in an influential article on “Political Risk, I…
Do Women Get Fewer Votes? No
We study data on the gender of more than 21,000 unique candidates in all Canadian federal elections since 1921, when the first women ran for seats in Parliament. This large data set allows us to compute precise estimates of the difference in the electoral fortunes of men and women candidates. When accounting for party effects and time trends, we find that the difference between the vote shares of men and women is substantively negligible (±0.5 pe…
The Limits of Foreign Aid Diplomacy
How does the institutional design of a state's bureaucracy affect foreign policy? We argue that institutions can moderate bureaucrats' incentives to act in accordance with an Executive's diplomatic preferences. Where the Executive can influence budgets or career paths, bureaucrats face incentives to adopt her diplomatic goals as their own. Where agencies are shielded from Executive influence, bureaucrats are free to act independently in a bid to …
Do Voters Benchmark Economic Performance
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
The Unintended Consequences of Bilateralism
The international tax system is a complex regime composed of thousands of bilateral tax treaties. These agreements coordinate policies between countries to avoid double taxation and encourage international investment. I argue that by solving this coordination problem on a bilateral basis, states have inadvertently created opportunities for treaty shopping by multinationals. These opportunities, in turn, reduce the potency of fiscal policy, put pr…
Adding rooms onto a house we love
This article examines the extent to which central bankers have been willing and able to rethink their beliefs about monetary policy in the wake of the global financial crisis. We show that despite the upheaval, the core pre‐crisis monetary policy paradigm remains relatively intact: central bankers believe that they should primarily pursue price stability through targeting a low inflation rate in a transparent manner, and that they need operationa…
When Can Multiple Imputation Improve Regression Estimates
Multiple imputation (MI) is often presented as an improvement over listwise deletion (LWD) for regression estimation in the presence of missing data. Against a common view, we demonstrate anew that the complete case estimator can be unbiased, even if data are not missing completely at random. As long as the analyst can control for the determinants of missingness, MI offers no benefit over LWD for bias reduction in regression analysis. We highligh…
Logarithmic versus Linear Visualizations of Covid-19 Cases Do Not Affect Citizens’ Support for Confinement
The SARS-CoV-2 virus was first identified in Wuhan, China, in late December 2019, and it quickly spread to many countries. By March 2020, the virus had triggered a global pandemic (World Health Organization, 2020). In response to this crisis, governments have implemented unprecedented public health measures. The success of these policies will largely depend on the public's willingness to comply with new rules. A key factor in citizens’ willingnes…
Political Risk Insurance
When do governments impose costs on foreign firms? Many studies of foreign direct investment focus on incentives for government expropriation, but scholars are often forced to rely on indirect measures of expropriation to conduct empirical analyses. This article introduces a data set which includes information on over 5,000 political risk insurance contracts issued by the US Overseas Private Investment Corporation since 1961, and on all the claim…
The market, the state and satisfaction with democracy
Satisfaction with democracy is driven by the two mechanisms that affect citizens’ income: the market and the state. When people consider that the levels of economic growth and redistribution are sufficient, they are more satisfied with the performance of democratic institutions. This relationship is moderated by personal income: since low-income citizens are more sensitive to changes in personal economic circumstances than high-income citizens, t…
Satisfaction with Democracy and the American Dream
Many studies show that past and current economic conditions are strong determinants of citizens' attitudes toward government and political institutions. In this article, we develop a forward-looking theory and argue that economic expectations also drive the level of satisfaction with democracy. Crucially, we contend that this relationship is conditional: hope for a better tomorrow matters more to the poor and to those who live in less affluent co…
Quantitative Political Science Research Is Greatly Underpowered
The social sciences face a replicability crisis. A key determinant of replication success is statistical power. We assess the power of political science research by collating over 16,000 hypothesis tests from about 2,000 articles in 46 areas of the discipline. Under generous assumptions, we show that quantitative research in political science is greatly underpowered: the median analysis has about 10% power, and only about 1 in 10 tests have at le…
The Political Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment
Many large-N cross-national studies claim to show that political institutions and phenomena determine where foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. In this article, I argue that these studies tend to overemphasize statistical significance and often neglect to assess the explanatory or predictive power of their theories. To illustrate the problem, I estimate variations of a statistical model published in an influential article on “Political Risk, I…
What do central bankers talk about when they talk about inflation? The rise and fall of inflation narratives
Where Should Multinationals Pay Taxes
The international tax system is a pillar of the post-war economic order, but it faces major challenges with the rise of global value chains, digitalization, and tax avoidance. Debates over international tax reform usually occur within a small epistemic community of experts and technocrats. In this article, we step outside this restricted circle to assess the sources of bottom-up legitimacy and support for the rules that govern where multinational…
The Double Bind of Qualitative Comparative Analysis
Qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) is an influential methodological approach motivated by set theory and boolean logic. QCA proponents have developed algorithms to analyze quantitative data, in a bid to uncover necessary and sufficient conditions where causal relationships are complex, conditional, or asymmetric. This article uses computer simulations to show that researchers in the QCA tradition face a vexing double bind. On the one hand, QC…
Party preference representation
Political parties are key actors in electoral democracies: they organize the legislature, form governments, and citizens choose their representatives by voting for them. How citizens evaluate political parties and how well the parties that citizens evaluate positively perform thus provide useful tools to estimate the quality of representation from the individual’s perspective. We propose a measure that can be used to assess party preference repre…
Conditional tax competition in American states
Cross-border commercial activity raises issues in federations where multiple jurisdictions can claim the right to tax the same income. In the United States, this coordination problem is resolved by splitting the tax base according to the geographic distribution of firms’ sales, capital and labour. The weight of each factor is determined on a state-by-state basis, which opens room for competitive legislative behaviour. In this complex issue area, …
Jobs and Punishment
Governments routinely offer deals to companies accused of white-collar crimes, allowing them to escape criminal charges in exchange for fines or penalties. This lets prosecutors avoid costly litigation and protects companies’ right to bid on lucrative public contracts, which can reduce the likelihood of bankruptcies or layoffs. Striking deals with white-collar criminals can be risky for governments because it could affect the perceived legitimacy…
Domestic Politics and Greenhouse Gas Emission Control
Did the politics of greenhouse gas emissions play any role in the historic elections of 2008? And, most importantly, will the election of the Democrat Barack Obama to the White House make any difference for the US policy on climate change? Although environmental issues were not central in the voting calculations of the average American last November, there are fundamental differences between Democrats and Republicans on the environment - particul…
The Limits of Foreign Aid Diplomacy
How does the institutional design of a state's bureaucracy affect foreign policy? We argue that institutions can moderate bureaucrats' incentives to act in accordance with an Executive's diplomatic preferences. Where the Executive can influence budgets or career paths, bureaucrats face incentives to adopt her diplomatic goals as their own. Where agencies are shielded from Executive influence, bureaucrats are free to act independently in a bid to …
The Political Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment
Many large-N cross-national studies claim to show that political institutions and phenomena determine where foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. In this article, I argue that these studies tend to overemphasize statistical significance and often neglect to assess the explanatory or predictive power of their theories. To illustrate the problem, I estimate variations of a statistical model published in an influential article on “Political Risk, I…
The Unintended Consequences of Bilateralism
The international tax system is a complex regime composed of thousands of bilateral tax treaties. These agreements coordinate policies between countries to avoid double taxation and encourage international investment. I argue that by solving this coordination problem on a bilateral basis, states have inadvertently created opportunities for treaty shopping by multinationals. These opportunities, in turn, reduce the potency of fiscal policy, put pr…
Adding rooms onto a house we love
This article examines the extent to which central bankers have been willing and able to rethink their beliefs about monetary policy in the wake of the global financial crisis. We show that despite the upheaval, the core pre‐crisis monetary policy paradigm remains relatively intact: central bankers believe that they should primarily pursue price stability through targeting a low inflation rate in a transparent manner, and that they need operationa…
When Can Multiple Imputation Improve Regression Estimates
Multiple imputation (MI) is often presented as an improvement over listwise deletion (LWD) for regression estimation in the presence of missing data. Against a common view, we demonstrate anew that the complete case estimator can be unbiased, even if data are not missing completely at random. As long as the analyst can control for the determinants of missingness, MI offers no benefit over LWD for bias reduction in regression analysis. We highligh…
Conditional tax competition in American states
Cross-border commercial activity raises issues in federations where multiple jurisdictions can claim the right to tax the same income. In the United States, this coordination problem is resolved by splitting the tax base according to the geographic distribution of firms’ sales, capital and labour. The weight of each factor is determined on a state-by-state basis, which opens room for competitive legislative behaviour. In this complex issue area, …
Satisfaction with Democracy and the American Dream
Many studies show that past and current economic conditions are strong determinants of citizens' attitudes toward government and political institutions. In this article, we develop a forward-looking theory and argue that economic expectations also drive the level of satisfaction with democracy. Crucially, we contend that this relationship is conditional: hope for a better tomorrow matters more to the poor and to those who live in less affluent co…
Do Women Get Fewer Votes? No
We study data on the gender of more than 21,000 unique candidates in all Canadian federal elections since 1921, when the first women ran for seats in Parliament. This large data set allows us to compute precise estimates of the difference in the electoral fortunes of men and women candidates. When accounting for party effects and time trends, we find that the difference between the vote shares of men and women is substantively negligible (±0.5 pe…
The market, the state and satisfaction with democracy
Satisfaction with democracy is driven by the two mechanisms that affect citizens’ income: the market and the state. When people consider that the levels of economic growth and redistribution are sufficient, they are more satisfied with the performance of democratic institutions. This relationship is moderated by personal income: since low-income citizens are more sensitive to changes in personal economic circumstances than high-income citizens, t…
Political Risk Insurance
When do governments impose costs on foreign firms? Many studies of foreign direct investment focus on incentives for government expropriation, but scholars are often forced to rely on indirect measures of expropriation to conduct empirical analyses. This article introduces a data set which includes information on over 5,000 political risk insurance contracts issued by the US Overseas Private Investment Corporation since 1961, and on all the claim…
Logarithmic versus Linear Visualizations of Covid-19 Cases Do Not Affect Citizens’ Support for Confinement
The SARS-CoV-2 virus was first identified in Wuhan, China, in late December 2019, and it quickly spread to many countries. By March 2020, the virus had triggered a global pandemic (World Health Organization, 2020). In response to this crisis, governments have implemented unprecedented public health measures. The success of these policies will largely depend on the public's willingness to comply with new rules. A key factor in citizens’ willingnes…
Analyse causale et méthodes quantitatives
"L'analyse causale est une des tâches principales du scientifique. Un criminologue évalue l'effet d'une sentence sur la probabilité qu'un condamné récidive. Une économiste mesure l'effet de la discrimination raciale sur les perspectives d'emploi d'un immigrant. Un politologue étudie l'effet des médias sociaux sur la popularité des partis d'extrême droite. Une spécialiste du marketing jauge l'effet d'une campagne publicitaire sur les choix des con…
Do Voters Benchmark Economic Performance
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
Party preference representation
Political parties are key actors in electoral democracies: they organize the legislature, form governments, and citizens choose their representatives by voting for them. How citizens evaluate political parties and how well the parties that citizens evaluate positively perform thus provide useful tools to estimate the quality of representation from the individual’s perspective. We propose a measure that can be used to assess party preference repre…
The Double Bind of Qualitative Comparative Analysis
Qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) is an influential methodological approach motivated by set theory and boolean logic. QCA proponents have developed algorithms to analyze quantitative data, in a bid to uncover necessary and sufficient conditions where causal relationships are complex, conditional, or asymmetric. This article uses computer simulations to show that researchers in the QCA tradition face a vexing double bind. On the one hand, QC…
Outgroup Bias and the Unacceptability of Tax Fraud
In countries with well-developed welfare state systems, it is often claimed that racial or ethnic minorities impose a heavy burden on social assistance programs without contributing to public goods. In this study, we consider the attitudinal effects of anecdotal reports of tax cheating by minorities. We conduct survey experiments in France and the United States to assess if people react more harshly to tax fraud perpetrated by members of a minori…
Jobs and Punishment
Governments routinely offer deals to companies accused of white-collar crimes, allowing them to escape criminal charges in exchange for fines or penalties. This lets prosecutors avoid costly litigation and protects companies’ right to bid on lucrative public contracts, which can reduce the likelihood of bankruptcies or layoffs. Striking deals with white-collar criminals can be risky for governments because it could affect the perceived legitimacy…
Software Citations in Political Science
Political scientists rely on complex software to conduct research, and much of the software they use is written and distributed for free by other researchers. This article contends that creating and maintaining these public goods is costly for individual software developers but that it is not adequately incentivized by the academic community. We demonstrate that statistical software is used widely but rarely cited in political science, and we hig…
Where Should Multinationals Pay Taxes
The international tax system is a pillar of the post-war economic order, but it faces major challenges with the rise of global value chains, digitalization, and tax avoidance. Debates over international tax reform usually occur within a small epistemic community of experts and technocrats. In this article, we step outside this restricted circle to assess the sources of bottom-up legitimacy and support for the rules that govern where multinational…
How to Interpret Statistical Models Using marginaleffects for R and Python
The parameters of a statistical model can sometimes be difficult to interpret substantively, especially when that model includes nonlinear components, interactions, or transformations. Analysts who fit such complex models often seek to transform raw parameter estimates into quantities that are easier for domain experts and stakeholders to understand. This article presents a simple conceptual framework to describe a vast array of such quantities o…
The Power of Boilerplate
How do states exercise power in complex, decentralized governance regimes? This article sheds light on this question by analyzing one of the pillars of the post-war economic order: the international tax regime. The taxation of multinational enterprises is governed by a system composed of thousands of Bilateral Tax Treaties signed between pairs of national governments. We argue that despite the bilateral nature of these treaties, their legal conte…
What do citizens in tax havens think? The EU blacklist and public opinion in Switzerland
Contains fulltext : 320067.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Open Access)
What do central bankers talk about when they talk about inflation? The rise and fall of inflation narratives
Quantitative Political Science Research Is Greatly Underpowered
The social sciences face a replicability crisis. A key determinant of replication success is statistical power. We assess the power of political science research by collating over 16,000 hypothesis tests from about 2,000 articles in 46 areas of the discipline. Under generous assumptions, we show that quantitative research in political science is greatly underpowered: the median analysis has about 10% power, and only about 1 in 10 tests have at le…
Political science (20 obras) · Law (17 obras) · Law (16 obras) · Economics (14 obras) · Politics (14 obras) · Business (9 obras) · Electoral Systems and Political Participation (8 obras) · Political economy (7 obras) · Computer Science (6 obras) · Mathematics (6 obras)