John R Wilmoth
Datos Biográficos
| ID | 332617 |
|---|---|
| NOMBRE | John R Wilmoth |
| NOMBRES | John R |
| APELLIDO | Wilmoth |
| FIRMA | WILMOTH J R |
| AFILIACIONES | University of California, Berkeley |
| VERIFICADO | No |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 27 |
| TOTAL DE CITAS | 303 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 27 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMER AÑO DE PUBLICACIÓN | 1989 |
| AÑO MÁS RECIENTE DE PUBLICACIÓN | 2014 |
| ÍNDICE H | 10 |
World population stabilization unlikely this century
The United Nations (UN) recently released population projections based on data until 2012 and a Bayesian probabilistic methodology. Analysis of these data reveals that, contrary to previous literature, the world population is unlikely to stop growing this century. There is an 80% probability that world population, now 7.2 billion people, will increase to between 9.6 billion and 12.3 billion in 2100. This uncertainty is much smaller than the range…
Period-Based Mortality Change
We investigate a major turning point in mortality trends at adult ages that occurred for many low-mortality countries in the late 1960s or early 1970s. We analyze patterns of total and cause-specific mortality over the past 60 years using data from the Human Mortality Database and the World Health Organization. We focus on four broad categories of causes of death: heart diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, smoking-related cancers, and all other ca…
Understanding Global Trends in Maternal Mortality
CONTEXT: Despite the fact that most maternal deaths are preventable, maternal mortality remains high in many developing countries. Target A of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 5 calls for a three-quarters reduction in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) between 1990 and 2015. METHODS: We derived estimates of maternal mortality for 172 countries over the period 1990-2008. Trends in maternal mortality were estimated either directly from vital regis…
A New Method for Deriving Global Estimates of Maternal Mortality
Maternal mortality is widely regarded as a key indicator of population health and of social and economic development. Its levels and trends are monitored closely by the United Nations and others, inspired in part by the UN's Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which call for a three-fourths reduction in the maternal mortality ratio between 1990 and 2015. Unfortunately, the empirical basis for such monitoring remains quite weak, requiring the use…
A flexible two-dimensional mortality model for use in indirect estimation
Mortality estimates for many populations are derived using model life tables, which describe typical age patterns of human mortality. We propose a new system of model life tables as a means of improving the quality and transparency of such estimates. A flexible two-dimensional model was fitted to a collection of life tables from the Human Mortality Database. The model can be used to estimate full life tables given one or two pieces of information…
Estimating the Effect of Smoking on Slowdowns in Mortality Declines in Developed Countries
Declines in mortality rates for females at older ages in some developed countries, including the United States, have slowed in recent decades even as decreases have steadily continued in some other countries. This study presents a modified version of the indirect Peto-Lopez method, which uses lung cancer mortality rates as a proxy for smoking exposure, to analyze this trend. The modified method estimates smoking-attributable mortality for more-sp…
A new method for estimating smoking-attributable mortality in high-income countries
BACKGROUND: Cigarette smoking is responsible for a massive loss of life in both developed and developing countries. This article develops an alternative to the Peto-Lopez method for estimating the number or fraction of smoking-attributable deaths in high-income countries. METHODS: We use lung cancer death rates as an indicator of the damage caused by smoking. Using administrative data for the population aged > or =50 years from 20 high-income cou…
A decomposition method based on a model of continuous change
A demographic measure is often expressed as a deterministic or stochastic function of multiple variables (covariates), and a general problem (the decomposition problem) is to assess contributions of individual covariates to a difference in the demographic measure (dependent variable) between two populations. We propose a method of decomposition analysis based on an assumption that covariates change continuously along an actual or hypothetical dim…
Introduction to the Special Collection “Human Mortality over Age, Time, Sex, and Place
This introduction to the special collection â Human Mortality over Age, Time, Sex, and Place: The 1st HMD Symposiumâ describes the Human Mortality Database project and briefly summarizes the Special Collection articles
On the relationship between period and cohort mortality
In this paper I explore the formal relationship between period and cohort mortality, focusing on a comparison of measures of mean lifespan. I consider not only the usual measures (life expectancy at birth for time periods and birth cohorts) but also s
The Cancer Transition in Japan since 1951
The overall trend of cancer mortality in Japan has been decreasing since the 1960s (age-standardized death rates for ages 30-69), though trends differ enormously among various forms of the disease. Cancer mortality was heavily influenced by Japanese po
How Long Can We Live? A Review Essay
Bjørn Lomborg, The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the Real State of the World Andrew Mason and Georges Tapinos (eds.), Sharing the Wealth: Demographic Change and Economic Transfers between Generations Nancy Foner, Ruben G. Rumbaut, and Steven J. Gold (eds.), Immigration Research for a New Century: Multidisdplinary Perspectives
Rectangularization revisited
Rectangularization of human survival curves is associated with decreasing variability in the distribution of ages at death. This variability, as measured by the interquartile range of life table ages at death, has decreased from about 65 years to 15 years since 1751 in Sweden. Most of this decline occurred between the 1870s and the 1950s. Since then, variability in age at death has been nearly constant in Sweden, Japan, and the United States, def…
Deceleration in the age pattern of mortality at olderages
The rate of mortality increase with age tends to slow down at very old ages. One explanation proposed for this deceleration is the selective survival of healthier individuals to older ages. Data on mortality in Sweden and Japan are generally compatible with three predictions of this hypothesis: (1) decelerations for most major causes of death; (2) decelerations starting at younger ages for more “selective” causes; and (3) a shift of the decelerat…
Is the Pace of Japanese Mortality Decline Converging Toward International Trends
FROM THE END of World War II until recently, the pace and magnitude of the Japanese mortality decline were unprecedented in human history. Records in the years immediately after the war are incomplete, but an estimate of Japanese life expectancy at birth in 1947 is around 52 years (Nanjo and Kobayashi 1985). Life expectancy at that time was about 67-69 years in North America and the less war-ravaged parts of Western Europe. By 1951 Japan's postwa…
Demographie
Dysgenics
Extreme longevity in five countries
Development of Oldest-Old Mortality, 1950-1990
Extreme Longevity in Five Countries
Are Mortality Rates Falling at Extremely High Ages? An Investigation Based on a Model Proposed by Coale and Kisker
It is known that further mortality reductions in industrialized countries depend heavily on trends in mortality rates at the oldest ages. In this article, a model proposed by Coale and Kisker is used to investigate mortality trends at the extreme old age of 110 years. The most important conclusions are that (1) the form of the model proposed by Coale and Kisker fits observed mortality schedules very well indeed, and (2) the trend in mortality rat…
Arguments and Action in the Life of a Social Problem
Arguments and Action in the Life of a Social Problem: A Case Study of "Overpopulation" 1946-1990 Get access John R. Wilmoth, John R. Wilmoth Please send correspondence to the first author at: Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley CA 94720-2120. Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic PubMed Google Scholar Patrick Ball Patrick Ball Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic PubMed Google Scho…
Human Longevity
The Population Debate in American Popular Magazines, 1946-90
We have undertaken an extensive review of the American popular literature on population for two reasons. First, a survey of popular perspectives on population change serves as a vehicle for analyzing the structure of the arguments in the larger debate on the issue of population increase. Compared with the academic literature, the popular discussion places greater emphasis on reasons for viewing population growth with alarm or complacency, rather …
The Population Debate in American Popular Magazines, 1946-90
We have undertaken an extensive review of the American popular literature on population for two reasons. First, a survey of popular perspectives on population change serves as a vehicle for analyzing the structure of the arguments in the larger debate on the issue of population increase. Compared with the academic literature, the popular discussion places greater emphasis on reasons for viewing population growth with alarm or complacency, rather …
Rectangularization revisited
Rectangularization of human survival curves is associated with decreasing variability in the distribution of ages at death. This variability, as measured by the interquartile range of life table ages at death, has decreased from about 65 years to 15 years since 1751 in Sweden. Most of this decline occurred between the 1870s and the 1950s. Since then, variability in age at death has been nearly constant in Sweden, Japan, and the United States, def…
A decomposition method based on a model of continuous change
A demographic measure is often expressed as a deterministic or stochastic function of multiple variables (covariates), and a general problem (the decomposition problem) is to assess contributions of individual covariates to a difference in the demographic measure (dependent variable) between two populations. We propose a method of decomposition analysis based on an assumption that covariates change continuously along an actual or hypothetical dim…
Deceleration in the age pattern of mortality at olderages
The rate of mortality increase with age tends to slow down at very old ages. One explanation proposed for this deceleration is the selective survival of healthier individuals to older ages. Data on mortality in Sweden and Japan are generally compatible with three predictions of this hypothesis: (1) decelerations for most major causes of death; (2) decelerations starting at younger ages for more “selective” causes; and (3) a shift of the decelerat…
Extreme longevity in five countries
The Population Debate in American Popular Magazines, 1946-90
We have undertaken an extensive review of the American popular literature on population for two reasons. First, a survey of popular perspectives on population change serves as a vehicle for analyzing the structure of the arguments in the larger debate on the issue of population increase. Compared with the academic literature, the popular discussion places greater emphasis on reasons for viewing population growth with alarm or complacency, rather …
Period-Based Mortality Change
We investigate a major turning point in mortality trends at adult ages that occurred for many low-mortality countries in the late 1960s or early 1970s. We analyze patterns of total and cause-specific mortality over the past 60 years using data from the Human Mortality Database and the World Health Organization. We focus on four broad categories of causes of death: heart diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, smoking-related cancers, and all other ca…
A flexible two-dimensional mortality model for use in indirect estimation
Mortality estimates for many populations are derived using model life tables, which describe typical age patterns of human mortality. We propose a new system of model life tables as a means of improving the quality and transparency of such estimates. A flexible two-dimensional model was fitted to a collection of life tables from the Human Mortality Database. The model can be used to estimate full life tables given one or two pieces of information…
Arguments and Action in the Life of a Social Problem
Arguments and Action in the Life of a Social Problem: A Case Study of "Overpopulation" 1946-1990 Get access John R. Wilmoth, John R. Wilmoth Please send correspondence to the first author at: Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley CA 94720-2120. Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic PubMed Google Scholar Patrick Ball Patrick Ball Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic PubMed Google Scho…
Variation in Vital Rates by Age, Period, and Cohort
The analysis of age-specific vital rates is studied, and special attention is given to the problem of decomposing an array of rates into factors related to age, period, and cohort.... The paper focuses on the age and period dimensions and derives an initial description of the matrix's structure with regard to changes only in those two directions. This two-dimensional description is then augmented by a consideration of residual patterns that seem …
On the relationship between period and cohort mortality
In this paper I explore the formal relationship between period and cohort mortality, focusing on a comparison of measures of mean lifespan. I consider not only the usual measures (life expectancy at birth for time periods and birth cohorts) but also s
Estimating the Effect of Smoking on Slowdowns in Mortality Declines in Developed Countries
Declines in mortality rates for females at older ages in some developed countries, including the United States, have slowed in recent decades even as decreases have steadily continued in some other countries. This study presents a modified version of the indirect Peto-Lopez method, which uses lung cancer mortality rates as a proxy for smoking exposure, to analyze this trend. The modified method estimates smoking-attributable mortality for more-sp…
Is the Pace of Japanese Mortality Decline Converging Toward International Trends
FROM THE END of World War II until recently, the pace and magnitude of the Japanese mortality decline were unprecedented in human history. Records in the years immediately after the war are incomplete, but an estimate of Japanese life expectancy at birth in 1947 is around 52 years (Nanjo and Kobayashi 1985). Life expectancy at that time was about 67-69 years in North America and the less war-ravaged parts of Western Europe. By 1951 Japan's postwa…
Are Mortality Rates Falling at Extremely High Ages? An Investigation Based on a Model Proposed by Coale and Kisker
It is known that further mortality reductions in industrialized countries depend heavily on trends in mortality rates at the oldest ages. In this article, a model proposed by Coale and Kisker is used to investigate mortality trends at the extreme old age of 110 years. The most important conclusions are that (1) the form of the model proposed by Coale and Kisker fits observed mortality schedules very well indeed, and (2) the trend in mortality rat…
Quand certaines générations ont une mortalité différente de celle que l'on pourrait attendre
WiLMOTH John, Vallin Jacques et Caselli Graziella. - Quand certaines générations ont une mortalité différente de celle que l'on pourrait attendre. L'analyse de la matrice française de quotients de mortalité par année d'âge et année de calendrier de la période 1899-1981 à partir d'un modèle descriptif simple permet d'isoler une composante diagonale qui sans prétendre rendre compte de la totalité de l'influence de l'histoire propre de chaque généra…
A New Method for Deriving Global Estimates of Maternal Mortality
Maternal mortality is widely regarded as a key indicator of population health and of social and economic development. Its levels and trends are monitored closely by the United Nations and others, inspired in part by the UN's Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which call for a three-fourths reduction in the maternal mortality ratio between 1990 and 2015. Unfortunately, the empirical basis for such monitoring remains quite weak, requiring the use…
The Cancer Transition in Japan since 1951
The overall trend of cancer mortality in Japan has been decreasing since the 1960s (age-standardized death rates for ages 30-69), though trends differ enormously among various forms of the disease. Cancer mortality was heavily influenced by Japanese po
Introduction to the Special Collection “Human Mortality over Age, Time, Sex, and Place
This introduction to the special collection â Human Mortality over Age, Time, Sex, and Place: The 1st HMD Symposiumâ describes the Human Mortality Database project and briefly summarizes the Special Collection articles
Quand certaines générations ont une mortalité différente de celle que l'on pourrait attendre
WiLMOTH John, Vallin Jacques et Caselli Graziella. - Quand certaines générations ont une mortalité différente de celle que l'on pourrait attendre. L'analyse de la matrice française de quotients de mortalité par année d'âge et année de calendrier de la période 1899-1981 à partir d'un modèle descriptif simple permet d'isoler une composante diagonale qui sans prétendre rendre compte de la totalité de l'influence de l'histoire propre de chaque généra…
Variation in Vital Rates by Age, Period, and Cohort
The analysis of age-specific vital rates is studied, and special attention is given to the problem of decomposing an array of rates into factors related to age, period, and cohort.... The paper focuses on the age and period dimensions and derives an initial description of the matrix's structure with regard to changes only in those two directions. This two-dimensional description is then augmented by a consideration of residual patterns that seem …
The Population Debate in American Popular Magazines, 1946-90
We have undertaken an extensive review of the American popular literature on population for two reasons. First, a survey of popular perspectives on population change serves as a vehicle for analyzing the structure of the arguments in the larger debate on the issue of population increase. Compared with the academic literature, the popular discussion places greater emphasis on reasons for viewing population growth with alarm or complacency, rather …
Human Longevity
The Population Debate in American Popular Magazines, 1946-90
We have undertaken an extensive review of the American popular literature on population for two reasons. First, a survey of popular perspectives on population change serves as a vehicle for analyzing the structure of the arguments in the larger debate on the issue of population increase. Compared with the academic literature, the popular discussion places greater emphasis on reasons for viewing population growth with alarm or complacency, rather …
Are Mortality Rates Falling at Extremely High Ages? An Investigation Based on a Model Proposed by Coale and Kisker
It is known that further mortality reductions in industrialized countries depend heavily on trends in mortality rates at the oldest ages. In this article, a model proposed by Coale and Kisker is used to investigate mortality trends at the extreme old age of 110 years. The most important conclusions are that (1) the form of the model proposed by Coale and Kisker fits observed mortality schedules very well indeed, and (2) the trend in mortality rat…
Arguments and Action in the Life of a Social Problem
Arguments and Action in the Life of a Social Problem: A Case Study of "Overpopulation" 1946-1990 Get access John R. Wilmoth, John R. Wilmoth Please send correspondence to the first author at: Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley CA 94720-2120. Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic PubMed Google Scholar Patrick Ball Patrick Ball Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic PubMed Google Scho…
Extreme longevity in five countries
Development of Oldest-Old Mortality, 1950-1990
Extreme Longevity in Five Countries
Dysgenics
Deceleration in the age pattern of mortality at olderages
The rate of mortality increase with age tends to slow down at very old ages. One explanation proposed for this deceleration is the selective survival of healthier individuals to older ages. Data on mortality in Sweden and Japan are generally compatible with three predictions of this hypothesis: (1) decelerations for most major causes of death; (2) decelerations starting at younger ages for more “selective” causes; and (3) a shift of the decelerat…
Is the Pace of Japanese Mortality Decline Converging Toward International Trends
FROM THE END of World War II until recently, the pace and magnitude of the Japanese mortality decline were unprecedented in human history. Records in the years immediately after the war are incomplete, but an estimate of Japanese life expectancy at birth in 1947 is around 52 years (Nanjo and Kobayashi 1985). Life expectancy at that time was about 67-69 years in North America and the less war-ravaged parts of Western Europe. By 1951 Japan's postwa…
Demographie
Rectangularization revisited
Rectangularization of human survival curves is associated with decreasing variability in the distribution of ages at death. This variability, as measured by the interquartile range of life table ages at death, has decreased from about 65 years to 15 years since 1751 in Sweden. Most of this decline occurred between the 1870s and the 1950s. Since then, variability in age at death has been nearly constant in Sweden, Japan, and the United States, def…
How Long Can We Live? A Review Essay
Bjørn Lomborg, The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the Real State of the World Andrew Mason and Georges Tapinos (eds.), Sharing the Wealth: Demographic Change and Economic Transfers between Generations Nancy Foner, Ruben G. Rumbaut, and Steven J. Gold (eds.), Immigration Research for a New Century: Multidisdplinary Perspectives
The Cancer Transition in Japan since 1951
The overall trend of cancer mortality in Japan has been decreasing since the 1960s (age-standardized death rates for ages 30-69), though trends differ enormously among various forms of the disease. Cancer mortality was heavily influenced by Japanese po
Introduction to the Special Collection “Human Mortality over Age, Time, Sex, and Place
This introduction to the special collection â Human Mortality over Age, Time, Sex, and Place: The 1st HMD Symposiumâ describes the Human Mortality Database project and briefly summarizes the Special Collection articles
On the relationship between period and cohort mortality
In this paper I explore the formal relationship between period and cohort mortality, focusing on a comparison of measures of mean lifespan. I consider not only the usual measures (life expectancy at birth for time periods and birth cohorts) but also s
A decomposition method based on a model of continuous change
A demographic measure is often expressed as a deterministic or stochastic function of multiple variables (covariates), and a general problem (the decomposition problem) is to assess contributions of individual covariates to a difference in the demographic measure (dependent variable) between two populations. We propose a method of decomposition analysis based on an assumption that covariates change continuously along an actual or hypothetical dim…
A new method for estimating smoking-attributable mortality in high-income countries
BACKGROUND: Cigarette smoking is responsible for a massive loss of life in both developed and developing countries. This article develops an alternative to the Peto-Lopez method for estimating the number or fraction of smoking-attributable deaths in high-income countries. METHODS: We use lung cancer death rates as an indicator of the damage caused by smoking. Using administrative data for the population aged > or =50 years from 20 high-income cou…
Estimating the Effect of Smoking on Slowdowns in Mortality Declines in Developed Countries
Declines in mortality rates for females at older ages in some developed countries, including the United States, have slowed in recent decades even as decreases have steadily continued in some other countries. This study presents a modified version of the indirect Peto-Lopez method, which uses lung cancer mortality rates as a proxy for smoking exposure, to analyze this trend. The modified method estimates smoking-attributable mortality for more-sp…
A New Method for Deriving Global Estimates of Maternal Mortality
Maternal mortality is widely regarded as a key indicator of population health and of social and economic development. Its levels and trends are monitored closely by the United Nations and others, inspired in part by the UN's Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which call for a three-fourths reduction in the maternal mortality ratio between 1990 and 2015. Unfortunately, the empirical basis for such monitoring remains quite weak, requiring the use…
A flexible two-dimensional mortality model for use in indirect estimation
Mortality estimates for many populations are derived using model life tables, which describe typical age patterns of human mortality. We propose a new system of model life tables as a means of improving the quality and transparency of such estimates. A flexible two-dimensional model was fitted to a collection of life tables from the Human Mortality Database. The model can be used to estimate full life tables given one or two pieces of information…
Understanding Global Trends in Maternal Mortality
CONTEXT: Despite the fact that most maternal deaths are preventable, maternal mortality remains high in many developing countries. Target A of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 5 calls for a three-quarters reduction in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) between 1990 and 2015. METHODS: We derived estimates of maternal mortality for 172 countries over the period 1990-2008. Trends in maternal mortality were estimated either directly from vital regis…
Demography (18 obras) · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management (17 obras) · Sociology (15 obras) · Medicine (14 obras) · Global Health Care Issues (13 obras) · Geography (12 obras) · Population (11 obras) · Demography (8 obras) · Economics (7 obras) · Gerontology (7 obras)