Marjolijn Haasnoot
Datos Biográficos
| ID | 3430972 |
|---|---|
| NOMBRE | Marjolijn Haasnoot |
| NOMBRES | Marjolijn |
| APELLIDO | Haasnoot |
| FIRMA | HAASNOOT M |
| AFILIACIONES | Utrecht University |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-9062-4698 |
| VERIFICADO | Sí |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 30 |
| TOTAL DE CITAS | 330 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 30 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMER AÑO DE PUBLICACIÓN | 2006 |
| AÑO MÁS RECIENTE DE PUBLICACIÓN | 2025 |
| ÍNDICE H | 9 |
Mapping the solution space for local adaptation under global change
Physical and societal systems limit adaptation options to environmental changes. • Our new method quantifies adaptation limits through mapping solution spaces. • Method supports exploring adaptation pathways under physical and societal change. • We assess adaptation feasibility, effectiveness, limitations and opportunities. • We illustrate this for Vietnamese Mekong Delta coastal flood adaptation options. Current and projected environmental chang…
Supporting climate resilient development planning − a dynamic adaptive pathways based approach and an illustrative case from Cork City, Ireland
We present an approach to support planning Climate Resilient Development Pathways (CRDP). • This approach systematically integrates adaptation, mitigation, and sustainable development (AMD). • Novelties include: vision-based CRD strategies, target points, policy interactions. • An illustrative case for Cork City, Ireland, demonstrates integrating CRDP actions over time. To achieve climate resilient societies, climate adaptation, mitigation, and s…
Data visualisation for decision making under deep uncertainty
This perspective article explores the role of data visualisation in decision-making under deep uncertainty (DMDU), a growing discipline tackling complex socio-environmental challenges, such as climate impacts and adaptation, natural resource management, and preparedness for extreme events. We discuss the role of visualisation for both analysis (or exploratory ) purposes, as well as communication (or explanatory ) purposes, including to stakeholde…
Adaptation pathways for effective responses to climate change risks
Climate related changes are already affecting every area of our world and will increasingly do so as global warming increases, resulting in compounding and cascading risks across multiple locations and sectors. Deliberative processes and anticipatory actions are required to adapt to the associated complex and uncertain systemic risks, with dynamic and long‐term planning needed even where there is limited knowledge of the effectiveness of adaptati…
Lessons from a decade of adaptive pathways studies for climate adaptation
We provide lessons on the use, value and weaknesses of adaptive pathways approaches. • Adaptive pathways analyses are increasingly applied in practice globally. • Methods include narratives, modelling, workshops, forecasting and backcasting. • Pathways have opened up space for understanding of risks and solutions. • Ways forward include accounting for interacting pathways and transformative adaptation. Adaptive pathways planning is an approach th…
Ipcc, 2023
The Summary for Policymakers (SPM) of the Synthesis Report (SYR) of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is a component of the SYR which provides a policy-relevant but policy-neutral summary of the SYR. It is consistent with the Sections of the SYR and is approved line by line by the Governments at a plenary session of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Ipcc, 2023
The Synthesis Report (SYR) is a stand-alone synthesis of the most policy-relevant evidence from the scientific, technical, and socio-economic literature assessed in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The SYR distils and integrates the main findings of the three reports of the Working Groups of the IPCC during the AR6, and the three AR6 Special Reports into a concise document. It consists of …
Status of global coastal adaptation
Knowledge co-production for decision-making in human-natural systems under uncertainty
Decision-making under uncertainty is important for managing human-natural systems in a changing world. A major source of uncertainty is linked to the multi-actor settings of decisions with poorly understood values, complex relationships, and conflicting management approaches. Despite general agreement across disciplines on co-producing knowledge for viable and inclusive outcomes in a multi-actor context, there is still limited conceptual clarity …
A systematic global stocktake of evidence on human adaptation to climate change
Using Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) approaches to support climate change adaptation of Swiss Ski Resorts
Climate change threatens winter tourism in the Alps severely, and ski resorts are struggling to cope under uncertain climate change. We aim to identify under what conditions physical and economic tipping points for ski resorts may occur under changing climate in six Swiss ski resorts representing low, medium, and high elevation in the Alps. We use exploratory modeling (EMA) to assess climate change impacts on ski resorts under a range of futures …
Why uncertainty in community livelihood adaptation is important for adaptive delta management
To deal with large uncertainties about future climate and socio-economic developments, planners in deltas are adopting an integrative and adaptive planning approach referred to as Adaptive Delta Management (ADM). Bangladesh has used the ADM approach for the development of its adaptive plan; Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 (BDP 2100). The success of policy strategies in an adaptive delta plan critically depends on a specific adaptation of livelihoods o…
Science for Loss and Damage. Findings and Propositions
The debate on “Loss and Damage” (L&D) has gained traction over the last few years. Supported by growing scientific evidence of anthropogenic climate change amplifying frequency, intensity and duration of climate-related hazards as well as observed increases in climate-related impacts and risks in many regions, the “Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage” was established in 2013 and further supported through the Paris Agreement in 2015…
Adaptation to uncertain sea-level rise; how uncertainty in Antarctic mass-loss impacts the coastal adaptation strategy of the Netherlands
Uncertainties in the rate and magnitude of sea-level rise (SLR) complicate decision making on coastal adaptation. Large uncertainty arises from potential ice mass-loss from Antarctica that could rapidly increase SLR in the second half of this century. The implications of SLR may be existential for a low-lying country like the Netherlands and warrant exploration of high-impact low-likelihood scenarios. To deal with uncertain SLR, the Netherlands h…
Climate change induced socio-economic tipping points
Tipping points have become a key concept in research on climate change, indicating points of abrupt transition in biophysical systems as well as transformative changes in adaptation and mitigation strategies. However, the potential existence of tipping points in socio-economic systems has remained underexplored, whereas they might be highly policy relevant. This paper describes characteristics of climate change induced socio-economic tipping poin…
Designing a monitoring system to detect signals to adapt to uncertain climate change
Adaptive plans aim to anticipate uncertain future changes by combining low-regret short-term actions with long-term options to adapt, if necessary. Monitoring and timely detection of relevant changes, and critical transitions or tipping points is crucial to ensure successful and timely implementation and reassessment of the plan. Although efforts have been made to identify signposts to monitor, the question remains how to design a signal monitori…
An uncertain future, deep uncertainty, scenarios, robustness and adaptation
What it took to catalyse uptake of dynamic adaptive pathways planning to address climate change uncertainty
Implementing climate-resilient pathways in conditions of uncertainty and change is a serious challenge. Approaches have been developed for this type of problem, one of which, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways approach (DAPP), has been applied in practice in a limited number of circumstances, mainly for large infrastructure projects and at national scales. To better understand what it takes to catalyse uptake of DAPP to better address uncertainty a…
Designing monitoring arrangements for collaborative learning about adaptation pathways
Adaptation pathways approaches support long-term planning under uncertainty. The use of adaptation pathways implies a systematic monitoring effort to inform future adaptation decisions. Such monitoring should feed into a long-term collaborative learning process between multiple actors at various levels. This raises questions about who should monitor what, when and for whom. We formulate an approach that helps to address these questions, developed…
Transient scenarios for robust climate change adaptation illustrated for water management in The Netherlands
Climate scenarios are used to explore impacts of possible future climates and to assess the robustness of adaptation actions across a range of futures. Time-dependent climate scenarios are commonly used in mitigation studies. However, despite the dynamic nature of adaptation, most scenarios for local or regional decision making on climate adaptation are static ‘endpoint’ projections. This paper describes the development and use of transient (time…
Lessons for model use in transition research
Communicating climate (change) uncertainties
Adapt or Perish
There is increasing interest in long-term plans that can adapt to changing situations under conditions of deep uncertainty. We argue that a sustainable plan should not only achieve economic, environmental, and social objectives, but should be robust and able to be adapted over time to (unforeseen) future conditions. Large numbers of papers dealing with robustness and adaptive plans have begun to appear, but the literature is fragmented. The paper…
Thresholds, tipping and turning points for sustainability under climate change
Dynamic adaptive policy pathways
A new paradigm for planning under conditions of deep uncertainty has emerged in the literature. According to this paradigm, a planner should create a strategic vision of the future, commit to short-term actions, and establish a framework to guide future actions. A plan that embodies these ideas allows for its dynamic adaptation over time to meet changing circumstances. We propose a method for decisionmaking under uncertain global and regional cha…
Dynamic adaptive policy pathways
A new paradigm for planning under conditions of deep uncertainty has emerged in the literature. According to this paradigm, a planner should create a strategic vision of the future, commit to short-term actions, and establish a framework to guide future actions. A plan that embodies these ideas allows for its dynamic adaptation over time to meet changing circumstances. We propose a method for decisionmaking under uncertain global and regional cha…
Using adaptation tipping points to prepare for climate change and sea level rise
Studies on the impact of climate change and sea level rise usually take climate scenarios as their starting point. To support long‐term water management planning in the Netherlands, we carried out a study that started at the opposite end of the effect chain. In the study we refer to three aspects of water management, flood defense, drinking water supply, and protection of the Rotterdam Harbour. We examined whether, and for how long, current water…
What it took to catalyse uptake of dynamic adaptive pathways planning to address climate change uncertainty
Implementing climate-resilient pathways in conditions of uncertainty and change is a serious challenge. Approaches have been developed for this type of problem, one of which, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways approach (DAPP), has been applied in practice in a limited number of circumstances, mainly for large infrastructure projects and at national scales. To better understand what it takes to catalyse uptake of DAPP to better address uncertainty a…
A method to develop sustainable water management strategies for an uncertain future
Development of sustainable water management strategies involves identification of vulnerability and adaptation possibilities, followed by an effect analysis of these adaptation strategies under different possible futures. Recent scenario studies on water management were mainly ‘what‐if’ assessments in one or two future situations. The future is, however, more complex and dynamic. It involves general trends and unexpected events in both the water …
Designing a monitoring system to detect signals to adapt to uncertain climate change
Adaptive plans aim to anticipate uncertain future changes by combining low-regret short-term actions with long-term options to adapt, if necessary. Monitoring and timely detection of relevant changes, and critical transitions or tipping points is crucial to ensure successful and timely implementation and reassessment of the plan. Although efforts have been made to identify signposts to monitor, the question remains how to design a signal monitori…
Lessons from a decade of adaptive pathways studies for climate adaptation
We provide lessons on the use, value and weaknesses of adaptive pathways approaches. • Adaptive pathways analyses are increasingly applied in practice globally. • Methods include narratives, modelling, workshops, forecasting and backcasting. • Pathways have opened up space for understanding of risks and solutions. • Ways forward include accounting for interacting pathways and transformative adaptation. Adaptive pathways planning is an approach th…
A method to explore social response for sustainable water management strategies under changing conditions
Society aims at sustainable water management, which means that it is effective (meeting targets for people, planet and profit), robust (able to cope with uncertainties) and flexible (easily adaptable to changing conditions). The past has demonstrated that extreme weather events and their impacts are important triggers for adaptations in water management. Furthermore, societal changes or events lead to changes in perception of desired situations, …
Communicating climate (change) uncertainties
Designing monitoring arrangements for collaborative learning about adaptation pathways
Adaptation pathways approaches support long-term planning under uncertainty. The use of adaptation pathways implies a systematic monitoring effort to inform future adaptation decisions. Such monitoring should feed into a long-term collaborative learning process between multiple actors at various levels. This raises questions about who should monitor what, when and for whom. We formulate an approach that helps to address these questions, developed…
Knowledge co-production for decision-making in human-natural systems under uncertainty
Decision-making under uncertainty is important for managing human-natural systems in a changing world. A major source of uncertainty is linked to the multi-actor settings of decisions with poorly understood values, complex relationships, and conflicting management approaches. Despite general agreement across disciplines on co-producing knowledge for viable and inclusive outcomes in a multi-actor context, there is still limited conceptual clarity …
Lessons for model use in transition research
Thresholds, tipping and turning points for sustainability under climate change
Adaptation pathways for effective responses to climate change risks
Climate related changes are already affecting every area of our world and will increasingly do so as global warming increases, resulting in compounding and cascading risks across multiple locations and sectors. Deliberative processes and anticipatory actions are required to adapt to the associated complex and uncertain systemic risks, with dynamic and long‐term planning needed even where there is limited knowledge of the effectiveness of adaptati…
Using Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) approaches to support climate change adaptation of Swiss Ski Resorts
Climate change threatens winter tourism in the Alps severely, and ski resorts are struggling to cope under uncertain climate change. We aim to identify under what conditions physical and economic tipping points for ski resorts may occur under changing climate in six Swiss ski resorts representing low, medium, and high elevation in the Alps. We use exploratory modeling (EMA) to assess climate change impacts on ski resorts under a range of futures …
Why uncertainty in community livelihood adaptation is important for adaptive delta management
To deal with large uncertainties about future climate and socio-economic developments, planners in deltas are adopting an integrative and adaptive planning approach referred to as Adaptive Delta Management (ADM). Bangladesh has used the ADM approach for the development of its adaptive plan; Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 (BDP 2100). The success of policy strategies in an adaptive delta plan critically depends on a specific adaptation of livelihoods o…
Flood detention, nature development and water quality along the lowland river Sava, Croatia
A method to develop sustainable water management strategies for an uncertain future
Development of sustainable water management strategies involves identification of vulnerability and adaptation possibilities, followed by an effect analysis of these adaptation strategies under different possible futures. Recent scenario studies on water management were mainly ‘what‐if’ assessments in one or two future situations. The future is, however, more complex and dynamic. It involves general trends and unexpected events in both the water …
A method to explore social response for sustainable water management strategies under changing conditions
Society aims at sustainable water management, which means that it is effective (meeting targets for people, planet and profit), robust (able to cope with uncertainties) and flexible (easily adaptable to changing conditions). The past has demonstrated that extreme weather events and their impacts are important triggers for adaptations in water management. Furthermore, societal changes or events lead to changes in perception of desired situations, …
Using adaptation tipping points to prepare for climate change and sea level rise
Studies on the impact of climate change and sea level rise usually take climate scenarios as their starting point. To support long‐term water management planning in the Netherlands, we carried out a study that started at the opposite end of the effect chain. In the study we refer to three aspects of water management, flood defense, drinking water supply, and protection of the Rotterdam Harbour. We examined whether, and for how long, current water…
A history of futures
The future of human life in the world's river deltas depends on the success of water management. To deal with uncertainties about the future, policymakers in the Netherlands have used scenarios to develop water management strategies for the coastal zone of the Rhine-Meuse delta. In this paper we reflect on six decades of scenario use in the Netherlands, and provide recommendations for future studies. Based on two criteria, 'Decision robustness' a…
Adapt or Perish
There is increasing interest in long-term plans that can adapt to changing situations under conditions of deep uncertainty. We argue that a sustainable plan should not only achieve economic, environmental, and social objectives, but should be robust and able to be adapted over time to (unforeseen) future conditions. Large numbers of papers dealing with robustness and adaptive plans have begun to appear, but the literature is fragmented. The paper…
Thresholds, tipping and turning points for sustainability under climate change
Dynamic adaptive policy pathways
A new paradigm for planning under conditions of deep uncertainty has emerged in the literature. According to this paradigm, a planner should create a strategic vision of the future, commit to short-term actions, and establish a framework to guide future actions. A plan that embodies these ideas allows for its dynamic adaptation over time to meet changing circumstances. We propose a method for decisionmaking under uncertain global and regional cha…
Communicating climate (change) uncertainties
Transient scenarios for robust climate change adaptation illustrated for water management in The Netherlands
Climate scenarios are used to explore impacts of possible future climates and to assess the robustness of adaptation actions across a range of futures. Time-dependent climate scenarios are commonly used in mitigation studies. However, despite the dynamic nature of adaptation, most scenarios for local or regional decision making on climate adaptation are static ‘endpoint’ projections. This paper describes the development and use of transient (time…
Lessons for model use in transition research
An uncertain future, deep uncertainty, scenarios, robustness and adaptation
What it took to catalyse uptake of dynamic adaptive pathways planning to address climate change uncertainty
Implementing climate-resilient pathways in conditions of uncertainty and change is a serious challenge. Approaches have been developed for this type of problem, one of which, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways approach (DAPP), has been applied in practice in a limited number of circumstances, mainly for large infrastructure projects and at national scales. To better understand what it takes to catalyse uptake of DAPP to better address uncertainty a…
Designing monitoring arrangements for collaborative learning about adaptation pathways
Adaptation pathways approaches support long-term planning under uncertainty. The use of adaptation pathways implies a systematic monitoring effort to inform future adaptation decisions. Such monitoring should feed into a long-term collaborative learning process between multiple actors at various levels. This raises questions about who should monitor what, when and for whom. We formulate an approach that helps to address these questions, developed…
Designing a monitoring system to detect signals to adapt to uncertain climate change
Adaptive plans aim to anticipate uncertain future changes by combining low-regret short-term actions with long-term options to adapt, if necessary. Monitoring and timely detection of relevant changes, and critical transitions or tipping points is crucial to ensure successful and timely implementation and reassessment of the plan. Although efforts have been made to identify signposts to monitor, the question remains how to design a signal monitori…
Science for Loss and Damage. Findings and Propositions
The debate on “Loss and Damage” (L&D) has gained traction over the last few years. Supported by growing scientific evidence of anthropogenic climate change amplifying frequency, intensity and duration of climate-related hazards as well as observed increases in climate-related impacts and risks in many regions, the “Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage” was established in 2013 and further supported through the Paris Agreement in 2015…
Adaptation to uncertain sea-level rise; how uncertainty in Antarctic mass-loss impacts the coastal adaptation strategy of the Netherlands
Uncertainties in the rate and magnitude of sea-level rise (SLR) complicate decision making on coastal adaptation. Large uncertainty arises from potential ice mass-loss from Antarctica that could rapidly increase SLR in the second half of this century. The implications of SLR may be existential for a low-lying country like the Netherlands and warrant exploration of high-impact low-likelihood scenarios. To deal with uncertain SLR, the Netherlands h…
Climate change induced socio-economic tipping points
Tipping points have become a key concept in research on climate change, indicating points of abrupt transition in biophysical systems as well as transformative changes in adaptation and mitigation strategies. However, the potential existence of tipping points in socio-economic systems has remained underexplored, whereas they might be highly policy relevant. This paper describes characteristics of climate change induced socio-economic tipping poin…
A systematic global stocktake of evidence on human adaptation to climate change
Using Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) approaches to support climate change adaptation of Swiss Ski Resorts
Climate change threatens winter tourism in the Alps severely, and ski resorts are struggling to cope under uncertain climate change. We aim to identify under what conditions physical and economic tipping points for ski resorts may occur under changing climate in six Swiss ski resorts representing low, medium, and high elevation in the Alps. We use exploratory modeling (EMA) to assess climate change impacts on ski resorts under a range of futures …
Why uncertainty in community livelihood adaptation is important for adaptive delta management
To deal with large uncertainties about future climate and socio-economic developments, planners in deltas are adopting an integrative and adaptive planning approach referred to as Adaptive Delta Management (ADM). Bangladesh has used the ADM approach for the development of its adaptive plan; Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 (BDP 2100). The success of policy strategies in an adaptive delta plan critically depends on a specific adaptation of livelihoods o…
Ipcc, 2023
The Summary for Policymakers (SPM) of the Synthesis Report (SYR) of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is a component of the SYR which provides a policy-relevant but policy-neutral summary of the SYR. It is consistent with the Sections of the SYR and is approved line by line by the Governments at a plenary session of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Ipcc, 2023
The Synthesis Report (SYR) is a stand-alone synthesis of the most policy-relevant evidence from the scientific, technical, and socio-economic literature assessed in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The SYR distils and integrates the main findings of the three reports of the Working Groups of the IPCC during the AR6, and the three AR6 Special Reports into a concise document. It consists of …
Status of global coastal adaptation
Knowledge co-production for decision-making in human-natural systems under uncertainty
Decision-making under uncertainty is important for managing human-natural systems in a changing world. A major source of uncertainty is linked to the multi-actor settings of decisions with poorly understood values, complex relationships, and conflicting management approaches. Despite general agreement across disciplines on co-producing knowledge for viable and inclusive outcomes in a multi-actor context, there is still limited conceptual clarity …
Computer Science (18 obras) · Sustainability and Climate Change Governance (17 obras) · Business (16 obras) · Climate change (16 obras) · Environmental resource management (15 obras) · Adaptation (eye (13 obras) · Ecology (13 obras) · Economics (13 obras) · Engineering (13 obras) · Environmental Science (13 obras)