Paul Ormerod
Datos Biográficos
| ID | 3581889 |
|---|---|
| NOMBRE | Paul Ormerod |
| NOMBRES | Paul |
| APELLIDO | Ormerod |
| FIRMA | ORMEROD P |
| AFILIACIONES | Volterra (United Kingdom) |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-2312-2452 |
| VERIFICADO | Sí |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 24 |
| TOTAL DE CITAS | 60 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 24 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 2 |
| PRIMER AÑO DE PUBLICACIÓN | 1980 |
| AÑO MÁS RECIENTE DE PUBLICACIÓN | 2019 |
| ÍNDICE H | 4 |
Andrew W. Lo. Adaptive Markets
Different Modelling Purposes
How one builds, checks, validates and interprets a model depends on its 'purpose'. This is true even if the same model code is used for di erent purposes. This means that a model built for one purpose but then used for another needs to be re-justified for the new purpose and this will probably mean it also has to be rechecked, re-validated and maybe even re-built in a di erent way. Here we review some of the di erent purposes for a simulation mod…
Non-Equilibrium Social Science and Policy
Data-driven Science, Modeling and Theory Building; Methodology of the Social Sciences; Economic Theory/Quantitative Economics/Mathematical Methods; Operation Research/Decision Theory; Complexity
Non-Equilibrium Social Science and Policy
The overall aim of this book, an outcome of the European FP7 FET Open NESS project, is to contribute to the ongoing effort to put the quantitative social sciences on a proper footing for the 21st century. A key focus is economics, and its implications on policy making, where the still dominant traditional approach increasingly struggles to capture the economic realities we observe in the world today - with vested interests getting too often in th…
Non-Equilibrium Social Science and Policy
Between 2011 and 2014 the European Non-Equilibrium Social Science Project (NESS) investigated the place of equilibrium in the social sciences and policy. Orthodox economics is based on an equilibrium view of how the economy functions and does not offer a complete description of how the world operates. However, mainstream economics is not an empty box. Its fundamental insight, that people respond to incentives, may be the only universal law of beh…
Uncertainty, Decision Science, and Policy Making
The financial crisis of 2008 was unforeseen partly because the academic theories that underpin policy making do not sufficiently account for uncertainty and complexity or learned and evolved human capabilities for managing them. Mainstream theories of decision making tend to be strongly normative and based on wishfully unrealistic “idealized” modeling. In order to develop theories of actual decision making under uncertainty, we need new methodolo…
Effects of memory on spatial heterogeneity in neutrally transmitted culture
Quality versus mere popularity
A rapid method for assessing social versus independent interest in health issues
Effective communication strategies regarding health issues are affected by the way in which the public obtain their knowledge, particularly whether people become interested independently, or through their social networks. This is often investigated through localized ethnography or surveys. In rapidly-evolving situations, however, there may also be a need for swift, case-specific assessment as a guide to initial strategy development. With this aim…
Binge’ drinking in the UK
Tradition and Fashion in Consumer Choice
Evidence is growing that in many markets consumers select not simply on the basis of the perceived attributes of products, but their preferences are modified by the behaviour of others. Economists have paid relatively little attention to such markets. We consider evidence from the activity of hill‐walking. The Munros are a list of Scottish hills over 3000 feet in height. We analyse completions of both the Munros themselves, and the Munro Tops, a …
Social network markets
The Impact of Sure Start
The first report from the national Sure Start evaluation team concludes that to date not only has the Sure Start programme not been a success, but for certain groups of disadvantaged families it has led to a worse outcome. The cost to date has been £3 billion. This is simply the latest in a series of spectacular policy failures: for example, the Child Support Agency, family tax credits, truancy reduction, lack of literacy amongst many children, r…
Complexity and the limits to knowledge
A New Approach to the Analysis of Geo-Political Risk
Traditional geo-political analysis has a poor record. In particular it has problems in capturing the complex inter-relationships between key factors, and the positive and negative feedback loops which make prediction difficult if not impossible. This paper argues that new techniques, derived from complexity and network theory, offer powerful new tools for both analysis and strategic decision making. The paper focuses on fuzzy cogntive mapping. An…
Social Networks and Information
Butterfly Economics
Situational Analysis and the Concept of Equilibrium
The core model of orthodox economies does not take proper account of Popper's situational analysis. It follows his injunction to generalize but does not test this against actual historical development. Mathematical tools used with great success in engineering were applied to economics in the final quarter of the nineteenth century. The models constructed with them were intended to be, by their very nature, timeless
Richard Goodwin
Journal Article Richard Goodwin: A Short Appreciation Get access Meghnad Desai, Meghnad Desai London School of Economics Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Paul Ormerod Paul Ormerod Post‐Orthodox Economics, London Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Economic Journal, Volume 108, Issue 450, 1 September 1998, Pages 1431–1435, https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0297.00350 Publi…
National competitiveness and state intervention
The death of economics
The Death of Economics
Journal Article The Death of Economics. Get access The Death of Economics. By Ormerod (Paul). (London: Faber and Faber Limited, 1994. Pp. x + 230. £14.99 hardback. ISBN 0 571 17125 7.) David F. Heathfield David F. Heathfield University of Southampton Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Economic Journal, Volume 105, Issue 431, 1 July 1995, Pages 1039–1041, https://doi.org/10.2307/2235182 Published: 01 July …
Large-Scale Macro-Econometric Models
Unemployment in Interwar Britain
Rational and Non-Rational Expectations of Inflation in Wage Equations for the United Kingdom
Expectations of inflation are widely recognized as playing a key role in the determination of the rate of change of money wages. Yet there is no widespread consensus on the size of the coefficient on the inflation expectations variable in the wage equation. Sargan (1980), for example, could not obtain statistically significant coefficients on this variable. Using a long Almon distributed lag of rates of change of prices as a proxy for expected in…
The Death of Economics
Journal Article The Death of Economics. Get access The Death of Economics. By Ormerod (Paul). (London: Faber and Faber Limited, 1994. Pp. x + 230. £14.99 hardback. ISBN 0 571 17125 7.) David F. Heathfield David F. Heathfield University of Southampton Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Economic Journal, Volume 105, Issue 431, 1 July 1995, Pages 1039–1041, https://doi.org/10.2307/2235182 Published: 01 July …
Unemployment in Interwar Britain
A rapid method for assessing social versus independent interest in health issues
Effective communication strategies regarding health issues are affected by the way in which the public obtain their knowledge, particularly whether people become interested independently, or through their social networks. This is often investigated through localized ethnography or surveys. In rapidly-evolving situations, however, there may also be a need for swift, case-specific assessment as a guide to initial strategy development. With this aim…
The Impact of Sure Start
The first report from the national Sure Start evaluation team concludes that to date not only has the Sure Start programme not been a success, but for certain groups of disadvantaged families it has led to a worse outcome. The cost to date has been £3 billion. This is simply the latest in a series of spectacular policy failures: for example, the Child Support Agency, family tax credits, truancy reduction, lack of literacy amongst many children, r…
Quality versus mere popularity
Complexity and the limits to knowledge
Tradition and Fashion in Consumer Choice
Evidence is growing that in many markets consumers select not simply on the basis of the perceived attributes of products, but their preferences are modified by the behaviour of others. Economists have paid relatively little attention to such markets. We consider evidence from the activity of hill‐walking. The Munros are a list of Scottish hills over 3000 feet in height. We analyse completions of both the Munros themselves, and the Munro Tops, a …
Butterfly Economics
Situational Analysis and the Concept of Equilibrium
The core model of orthodox economies does not take proper account of Popper's situational analysis. It follows his injunction to generalize but does not test this against actual historical development. Mathematical tools used with great success in engineering were applied to economics in the final quarter of the nineteenth century. The models constructed with them were intended to be, by their very nature, timeless
Rational and Non-Rational Expectations of Inflation in Wage Equations for the United Kingdom
Expectations of inflation are widely recognized as playing a key role in the determination of the rate of change of money wages. Yet there is no widespread consensus on the size of the coefficient on the inflation expectations variable in the wage equation. Sargan (1980), for example, could not obtain statistically significant coefficients on this variable. Using a long Almon distributed lag of rates of change of prices as a proxy for expected in…
Economic Modelling. Current Issues and Problems in Macroeconomic Modelling in the UK and the US
Journal Article Economic Modelling. Current Issues and Problems in Macroeconomic Modelling in the UK and the US Get access Economic Modelling. Current Issues and Problems in Macroeconomic Modelling in the UK and the US. Edited by PAUL ORMEROD. (London: Heinemann, 1979. Pp. xvii +349. £21.00.) David Bell David Bell The Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar T…
Unemployment in Interwar Britain
Rational and Non-Rational Expectations of Inflation in Wage Equations for the United Kingdom
Expectations of inflation are widely recognized as playing a key role in the determination of the rate of change of money wages. Yet there is no widespread consensus on the size of the coefficient on the inflation expectations variable in the wage equation. Sargan (1980), for example, could not obtain statistically significant coefficients on this variable. Using a long Almon distributed lag of rates of change of prices as a proxy for expected in…
Large-Scale Macro-Econometric Models
The death of economics
The Death of Economics
Journal Article The Death of Economics. Get access The Death of Economics. By Ormerod (Paul). (London: Faber and Faber Limited, 1994. Pp. x + 230. £14.99 hardback. ISBN 0 571 17125 7.) David F. Heathfield David F. Heathfield University of Southampton Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Economic Journal, Volume 105, Issue 431, 1 July 1995, Pages 1039–1041, https://doi.org/10.2307/2235182 Published: 01 July …
National competitiveness and state intervention
Situational Analysis and the Concept of Equilibrium
The core model of orthodox economies does not take proper account of Popper's situational analysis. It follows his injunction to generalize but does not test this against actual historical development. Mathematical tools used with great success in engineering were applied to economics in the final quarter of the nineteenth century. The models constructed with them were intended to be, by their very nature, timeless
Richard Goodwin
Journal Article Richard Goodwin: A Short Appreciation Get access Meghnad Desai, Meghnad Desai London School of Economics Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Paul Ormerod Paul Ormerod Post‐Orthodox Economics, London Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Economic Journal, Volume 108, Issue 450, 1 September 1998, Pages 1431–1435, https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0297.00350 Publi…
Butterfly Economics
Social Networks and Information
A New Approach to the Analysis of Geo-Political Risk
Traditional geo-political analysis has a poor record. In particular it has problems in capturing the complex inter-relationships between key factors, and the positive and negative feedback loops which make prediction difficult if not impossible. This paper argues that new techniques, derived from complexity and network theory, offer powerful new tools for both analysis and strategic decision making. The paper focuses on fuzzy cogntive mapping. An…
The Impact of Sure Start
The first report from the national Sure Start evaluation team concludes that to date not only has the Sure Start programme not been a success, but for certain groups of disadvantaged families it has led to a worse outcome. The cost to date has been £3 billion. This is simply the latest in a series of spectacular policy failures: for example, the Child Support Agency, family tax credits, truancy reduction, lack of literacy amongst many children, r…
Complexity and the limits to knowledge
Social network markets
Binge’ drinking in the UK
Tradition and Fashion in Consumer Choice
Evidence is growing that in many markets consumers select not simply on the basis of the perceived attributes of products, but their preferences are modified by the behaviour of others. Economists have paid relatively little attention to such markets. We consider evidence from the activity of hill‐walking. The Munros are a list of Scottish hills over 3000 feet in height. We analyse completions of both the Munros themselves, and the Munro Tops, a …
A rapid method for assessing social versus independent interest in health issues
Effective communication strategies regarding health issues are affected by the way in which the public obtain their knowledge, particularly whether people become interested independently, or through their social networks. This is often investigated through localized ethnography or surveys. In rapidly-evolving situations, however, there may also be a need for swift, case-specific assessment as a guide to initial strategy development. With this aim…
Quality versus mere popularity
Effects of memory on spatial heterogeneity in neutrally transmitted culture
Uncertainty, Decision Science, and Policy Making
The financial crisis of 2008 was unforeseen partly because the academic theories that underpin policy making do not sufficiently account for uncertainty and complexity or learned and evolved human capabilities for managing them. Mainstream theories of decision making tend to be strongly normative and based on wishfully unrealistic “idealized” modeling. In order to develop theories of actual decision making under uncertainty, we need new methodolo…
Non-Equilibrium Social Science and Policy
Data-driven Science, Modeling and Theory Building; Methodology of the Social Sciences; Economic Theory/Quantitative Economics/Mathematical Methods; Operation Research/Decision Theory; Complexity
Non-Equilibrium Social Science and Policy
The overall aim of this book, an outcome of the European FP7 FET Open NESS project, is to contribute to the ongoing effort to put the quantitative social sciences on a proper footing for the 21st century. A key focus is economics, and its implications on policy making, where the still dominant traditional approach increasingly struggles to capture the economic realities we observe in the world today - with vested interests getting too often in th…
Non-Equilibrium Social Science and Policy
Between 2011 and 2014 the European Non-Equilibrium Social Science Project (NESS) investigated the place of equilibrium in the social sciences and policy. Orthodox economics is based on an equilibrium view of how the economy functions and does not offer a complete description of how the world operates. However, mainstream economics is not an empty box. Its fundamental insight, that people respond to incentives, may be the only universal law of beh…
Andrew W. Lo. Adaptive Markets
Economics (18 obras) · Computer Science (13 obras) · Political science (12 obras) · Sociology (10 obras) · Business (5 obras) · Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis (5 obras) · Economic theories and models (5 obras) · Law (5 obras) · Opinion Dynamics and Social Influence (5 obras) · Psychology (5 obras)