Jonathan Baron
Datos Biográficos
| ID | 3602487 |
|---|---|
| NOMBRE | Jonathan Baron |
| NOMBRES | Jonathan |
| APELLIDO | Baron |
| FIRMA | BARON J |
| AFILIACIONES | University of Pennsylvania |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-1001-9947 |
| VERIFICADO | Sí |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 69 |
| TOTAL DE CITAS | 451 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 68 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 1 |
| PRIMER AÑO DE PUBLICACIÓN | 1971 |
| AÑO MÁS RECIENTE DE PUBLICACIÓN | 2025 |
| ÍNDICE H | 11 |
Cycling cities
Two components of individual differences in actively open-minded thinking standards
The theory of actively open-minded thinking (AOT) implies standards for good thinking. Two broad aspects of these standards characterise individual differences in their acceptance: myside bias, in which thinking favours possible conclusions that are already strong; and uncertainty aversion, a belief that good thinking results in high confidence. Acceptance of AOT standards is often measured with short questionnaire scales. The present paper repor…
Individual Differences in Argument Strength Discrimination
Being able to discriminate poorly justified from well justified arguments is necessary for informed citizenship. However, it is not known whether the ability to recognize argument strength generalizes across different types of arguments, and what cognitive factors predict this ability or these abilities. Drawing on the theory of argument schemes, we examined arguments from consequence, analogy, symptoms, and authority in order to cover all major …
The psychology of intergroup conflict
False Equivalence
On the basis of a meta-analysis of 51 studies, Ditto et al. (this issue, p. 273) conclude that ideological bias is equivalent on the left and right of U.S. politics. In this commentary, we contend that this conclusion does not follow from the review and that Ditto and his colleagues are too quick to embrace a false equivalence between the liberal left and the conservative right. For one thing, the issues, procedures, and materials used in the stu…
Social Norms for Citizenship
Social Norms for Citizenship Jonathan Baron (bio) INTRODUCTION: SOCIAL NORMS IN CONTEXT A social norm is a principle or rule of behavior, which is maintained among members of a group of people both by trying to follow it and by trying to enforce it upon each other. Both of these effects are contingent on the existence of the norm and on the effort of others to maintain it (Bicchieri 2006). In part because of this contingency, social norms differ …
Philosophical Impediments to Citizens’ Use of Science
This chapter discusses three impediments to proper use of science in the creation of public policy. First, citizens and policymakers follow moral rules other than those that involve consequences, yet the main role of science in policy is to predict outcomes. Second, citizens believe that their proper role is to advance their self-interest or the interest of some narrow group, thus ignoring the relevance of science to policy issues that affect hum…
Protected Values and Other Types of Values
Protected values (PVs) are values protected from trade-offs with other values. They are absolute in this sense. People hold these values even when they do not necessarily abide by them in their behavior. I suggest that most of these values are a subset of deontological rules, defined by their absoluteness. Their origin may be understood by looking at the origin of deontological rules more generally, which includes religious (hence sacred) values …
Why does the Cognitive Reflection Test (sometimes) predict utilitarian moral judgment (and other things)?
The Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) is thought to correlate with measures of utilitarian moral judgment because it measures system-2 correction of an initial intuitive response. And some theories of moral judgment hold that the same thing often happens when people arrive a utilitarian judgments. We find, however, that CRT-type items (using logic as well as arithmetic) can work just as well when they do not have obvious intuitive answers at predic…
Moral Judgment
Legal judgments must be influenced by how people think about good and evil, right and wrong. This chapter reviews some of the history of the psychology of moral judgment, and the methods used to study it. It suggests the use of utilitarianism as a normative model for evaluating judgments, if only because departures from utilitarian judgments could have a cost in terms of outcomes. Common biases, from this perspective, are omission bias (preferenc…
Heuristics and Biases
The field of judgment and decision-making is characterized by three types of “models”: normative, prescriptive, and descriptive. Normative models provide standards for evaluation of judgments and decisions. Descriptive models are psychological accounts of how people either conform or depart from these models systematically (i.e., have biases). Prescriptive models suggest ways of helping people come closer to the normative models. This chapter rev…
The Power of Social Influence on Estimation Accuracy
Research shows that crowds can provide more accurate estimates of uncertain quantities than individuals (Surowiecki, 2004). But little is known about how to organize crowd members to maximize accuracy. When should crowd members work independently, and when should they work collaboratively? We examined the effects of social influence on estimation accuracy, consensus, and confidence. Participants first made independent estimates of uncertain quant…
Emerging Perspectives on Judgment and Decision Research
Use of a Rasch model to predict response times to utilitarian moral dilemmas
The 'culture of honor' in citizens' concepts of their duty as voters
Web studies explored citizens' concepts of their duty as voters and their choices concerning actual policies. Some people see a moral duty to support their group (their nation) regardless of harmful effects on outsiders. One study supports the hypothesis that this duty avoids betrayal of the nation, which they see as granting the right to vote for the purpose of advancing national interest. Some also see a duty to defend their self-interest throu…
The Duty to Support Nationalistic Policies
We demonstrate that citizens perceive a duty to support policies that benefit their nation, even when they themselves judge that the consequences of the policies will be worse on the whole, taking outsiders into account. In terms of actions, subjects think they would do their perceived duty rather than violate it for the sake of better consequences. The discrepancy between duty and judged consequences does not seem to result from self‐interest al…
The generality of the emotion effect on magnitude sensitivity
Looking at Individual Subjects in Research on Judgment and Decision Making (or anything)
摘要: 决策与判断研究中(甚至是实验心理学研究中)的许多问题关注某效应是否真实存在, 及其背后的解释是什么。这些问题不关注该效应在某一特殊群体中是否显著。因此, 可以通过分析单个被试来检验效应的显著性。如果有一个被试表现出了该效应, 那么, 这个效应就是存在的。根据这一观点, 有时也可通过跨案例或者轮次(across cases or rounds)分析来验证效应的显著性, 而不需要进行跨被试分析(across subjects )。这一观点也暗示在一些实验中可能存在反方向的效应。本文建议通过进行基于被试个体的统计分析来检验这样的效应, 并介绍了一些不同形式的方法:PP 概率图(probability probability plots); P 值分布检验(tests of the distribution of p-values); 分层取样多重检验的矫正(correction for multiple testing with step-down resampling)。这些方法都可…
Cognitive biases in moral judgments that affect political behavior
Thinking and deciding
Freedom versus Control
Of course I agree with Prof. Bazerman. I agree that the field of behavioral decision research is neglected. It is my field too, and a basic finding of psychology is that people feel that their own ideas are given insufficient attention. I also agree with all the findings that are cited, and their application to the cases under discussion.I could stop here, but to make this comment a bit longer, I would like to discuss an issue that runs through B…
The value of choice in insurance purchasing
Thinking and Deciding
Beginning with its first edition and through subsequent editions, Thinking and Deciding has established itself as the required text and important reference work for students and scholars of human cognition and rationality. In this fourth edition, first published in 2007, Jonathan Baron retains the comprehensive attention to the key questions addressed in the previous editions - how should we think? What, if anything, keeps us from thinking that w…
Thinking About Tax
Isolation effects and the neglect of indirect effects of fiscal policies
People tend to focus on salient cues, ignoring others. We demonstrate such isolation effects in situations involving taxes and public finance, through experiments conducted on the World Wide Web. In general, subjects minimized or ignored the longer‐term or indirect effects of tax policies, such as price increases from business taxes. Subjects preferred “hidden” taxes to transparent ones, failing to think through who would ultimately pay. The pref…
Omission and commission in judgment and choice
Subjects read scenarios concerning pairs of options. One option was an omission, the other, a commission. Intentions, motives, and consequences were held constant. Subjects either judged the morality of actors by their choices or rated the goodness of decision options. Subjects often rated harmful omissions as less immoral, or less bad as decisions, than harmful commissions. Such ratings were associated with judgments that omissions do not cause …
Reluctance to vaccinate
Subjects are reluctant to vaccinate a (hypothetical) child when the vaccination itself can cause death, even when this is much less likely than death from the disease prevented. This effect is even greater when there is a ‘risk group’ for death (with its overall probability held constant), even though the test for membership in the risk group is unavailable. This effect cannot be explained in terms of a tendency to assume that the child is in the…
Outcome bias in decision evaluation
Ambiguity and rationality
Recently, several theories of decision making and probability judgment have been proposed that take into account ambiguity (Einhorn and Hogarth, 1985; Gardenfors and Sahlin, 1982). However, none of these theories explains exactly what the psychological causes of ambiguity are or addresses the issue of whether ambiguity effects are rational. In this paper, we define ambiguity as the subjective experience of missing information relevant to a predic…
Psychological determinants of decision attitude
Decision attitude — an analog of risk attitude — is the propensity to make (or avoid making) a decision: in decision aversion, a person finds it more desirable to receive through fiat the better of two options than to have a choice between them; in decision seeking, the choice is more desirable, even though it can lead to nothing better than the best option. Both decision aversion and decision seeking were found in hypothetical scenarios. Experim…
Blind justice
People are reluctant to harm some people in order to help others, even when the harm is less than the forgone help (the harm resulting from not acting). The present studies use hypothetical scenarios to argue that these judgments go against what the subjects themselves would take to be the best overall outcome. When the outcomes in question are income gains and losses for two groups of farmers, subjects judge the harm they would not impose throug…
Confusion of Group Interest and Self-Interest in Parochial Cooperation on Behalf of a Group
People often sacrifice their self-interest for a group to which they belong, even when outsiders are harmed so that the sacrifice has no net benefit. Two experiments (conducted on the World Wide Web) suggest that people do this, in part, because they think that cooperation on behalf of the group is in their narrow self-interest; they show an enhanced self-interest illusion. One experiment found that the self-interest illusion is related to the en…
Biases in the quantitative measurement of values for public decisions
Measurement of personal values in terms of money or utility can promote efficient public decisions about environmental and risk regulation, health care, and so forth. Current measures are subject to several biases. Quantitative judgments of value are often based on a concept of importance that ignores the quantity of the good being valued. They are sensitive to irrelevant factors, such as cost of the good (vs. its benefit) and whether it has been…
Do patients trust computers
In two studies, we inquired whether patients accept medical recommendations that come from a computer program rather than from a physician. In study 1, we found that subjects, when deciding whether to have an operation or not in different medical scenarios, were more likely to follow a recommendation that came from a physician than one that came from a computer program. Subjects stated that they would feel less responsible when following a recomm…
Thinking about tax
This article reports the findings of several experiments about perceptions of various aspects of tax-law design. The authors find that people are vulnerable to a wide range of heuristics and biases in evaluating public finance systems, leading to inconsistent judgments and evaluations. These errors in judgment are specific instances of a more general isolation effect, whereby people respond quickly to a decision or choice set, focusing on salient…
The Preference for Indirect Harm
Framing and taxation
Support for trade restrictions, attitudes, and understanding of comparative advantage
Norms against voting for coerced reform
Some reforms, such as the passing of a prohibitive law or a binding agreement to solve a social dilemma, involve coercion. In hypothetical cases, Ss sometimes said they would not support coerced reforms even though they acknowledged that the reforms would improve matters. Ss justified such resistance by noting that the reform would harm some group (despite helping many others), that a choice would be taken away that people ought to be able to mak…
The effect of normative beliefs on anticipated emotions
In 3 experiments, Ss were asked how they would or should make hypothetical decisions and how they would react emotionally to the options or outcomes. The choices were those in which departures from proposed normative models had previously been found: omission bias, status quo bias, and the person-causation effect. These effects were found in all judgments, including judgments of anticipated emotion. Arguments against the departures affected judgm…
Limiting the Scope of Moral Obligations to Help
Two studies compared the judgments of U.S. and Indian students regarding the obligation to save someone's life by donating bone marrow. Indians were more likely to consider donation to be morally required, even when the needy person was a stranger "on the other side of the world." Both groups limited obligations to help out-group members, but Americans also limited obligations to help in-group members from the same town. Indians regarded donating…
Tradeoffs Among Reasons for Action
Cognitive biases in moral judgments that affect political behavior
Approval Voting and Parochialism
In hypothetical scenarios involving two groups (nations or groups of workers), subjects voted on three proposals: one helped group A (their group), one helped B, and one helped both groups, more than the average of the first two but less than their maximum. When subjects voted for one proposal, most voted for the one that helped group A. This result is “parochial” because it helps the voter’s own group even though it hurts the other group more. W…
Intuitions about declining marginal utility
In two studies, subjects judged the desirability of distributions of life expectancy or money. Their judgments showed declining marginal utility. That is, they were less sensitive to changes at the high end of each scale. Subjects also made utility ratings of the outcomes of individuals. And they made ratings of the distributions when these were described in terms of utility ratings rather than goods (years or dollars). The judgments of utility r…
Norm-Endorsement Utilitarianism and the Nature of Utility
In this article, I shall suggest an approach to the justification of normative moral principles which leads, I think, to utilitarianism. The approach is based on asking what moral norms we would each endorse if we had no prior moral commitments. I argue that we would endorse norms that lead to the satisfaction of all our nonmoral values or goals. The same approach leads to a view of utility as consisting of those goals that we would want satisfie…
Equity in Theory and Practice
Use of a Rasch model to predict response times to utilitarian moral dilemmas
The Duty to Support Nationalistic Policies
We demonstrate that citizens perceive a duty to support policies that benefit their nation, even when they themselves judge that the consequences of the policies will be worse on the whole, taking outsiders into account. In terms of actions, subjects think they would do their perceived duty rather than violate it for the sake of better consequences. The discrepancy between duty and judged consequences does not seem to result from self‐interest al…
The value of choice in insurance purchasing
Is experimental psychology relevant
Effect of inconsistent distinctiveness of artificial semantic features on retrieval speed
Effects of training and set size on children's judgments of number and length
Semantic components in children's errors with pronouns
Tradeoffs Among Reasons for Action
Rationality and Intelligence
Preface 1. Introduction 2. Rational choices and plans 3. A theory of thinking 4. The scheme fleshed out: a decision-theoretic analysis of thinking 5. Conditions of effective thinking 6. Effects of rational thinking on the individual and society 7. The teaching of rational thinking References Index
Ambiguity and rationality
Recently, several theories of decision making and probability judgment have been proposed that take into account ambiguity (Einhorn and Hogarth, 1985; Gardenfors and Sahlin, 1982). However, none of these theories explains exactly what the psychological causes of ambiguity are or addresses the issue of whether ambiguity effects are rational. In this paper, we define ambiguity as the subjective experience of missing information relevant to a predic…
Outcome bias in decision evaluation
Reluctance to vaccinate
Subjects are reluctant to vaccinate a (hypothetical) child when the vaccination itself can cause death, even when this is much less likely than death from the disease prevented. This effect is even greater when there is a ‘risk group’ for death (with its overall probability held constant), even though the test for membership in the risk group is unavailable. This effect cannot be explained in terms of a tendency to assume that the child is in the…
When does algorithmic decomposition help? commentary
Algorithmic decomposition is a way of extending thinking. It will help when thinking is otherwise poor, and it may hinder when thinking is otherwise adequate. It may help decision making more than it helps numerical estimation
Omission and commission in judgment and choice
Subjects read scenarios concerning pairs of options. One option was an omission, the other, a commission. Intentions, motives, and consequences were held constant. Subjects either judged the morality of actors by their choices or rated the goodness of decision options. Subjects often rated harmful omissions as less immoral, or less bad as decisions, than harmful commissions. Such ratings were associated with judgments that omissions do not cause …
Status-quo and omission biases
Sats, Achievement Tests, and High-School Class Rank as Predictors of College Performance
This study asked how well students' grades at the University of Pennsylvania could be predicted from linear combinations of high-school class rank (CLR), total scholastic-aptitude-test score (SAT), and average achievement-test score (ACH), all of which are available in applications for admission to selective institutions. Underrepresented minorities were not included in the main analysis. Consideration of multiple regression coefficients revealed…
The effect of normative beliefs on anticipated emotions
In 3 experiments, Ss were asked how they would or should make hypothetical decisions and how they would react emotionally to the options or outcomes. The choices were those in which departures from proposed normative models had previously been found: omission bias, status quo bias, and the person-causation effect. These effects were found in all judgments, including judgments of anticipated emotion. Arguments against the departures affected judgm…
Morality and Rational Choice
Psychological Perspectives on Justice
Justice, equity, and fairness are central concerns of everyday life, whether we are assessing the fairness of individual acts, social programmes, or institutional policies. This book explores how the distribution of costs and benefits determine our intuition about fairness and why individual behaviour sometimes deviates from normative theories of justice. To make any comparison, one must first state how fair distributions of resources or burdens …
Galileo's Revenge
Norms against voting for coerced reform
Some reforms, such as the passing of a prohibitive law or a binding agreement to solve a social dilemma, involve coercion. In hypothetical cases, Ss sometimes said they would not support coerced reforms even though they acknowledged that the reforms would improve matters. Ss justified such resistance by noting that the reform would harm some group (despite helping many others), that a choice would be taken away that people ought to be able to mak…
Psychological determinants of decision attitude
Decision attitude — an analog of risk attitude — is the propensity to make (or avoid making) a decision: in decision aversion, a person finds it more desirable to receive through fiat the better of two options than to have a choice between them; in decision seeking, the choice is more desirable, even though it can lead to nothing better than the best option. Both decision aversion and decision seeking were found in hypothetical scenarios. Experim…
Judgements of compensation for misfortune
In three questionnaire studies, we asked subjects how much compensation should be provided, by a third party, to an accident victim. We tested the hypothesis, derived from norm theory, that compensation would be greater when the injury was less to be expected, e.g. when the injury was caused by failure ‐ as opposed to success ‐ of a safety routine. To rule out the possibility that such expectation effects depended on subjects' anticipations of th…
Blind justice
People are reluctant to harm some people in order to help others, even when the harm is less than the forgone help (the harm resulting from not acting). The present studies use hypothetical scenarios to argue that these judgments go against what the subjects themselves would take to be the best overall outcome. When the outcomes in question are income gains and losses for two groups of farmers, subjects judge the harm they would not impose throug…
Equity in Theory and Practice
A Theory of Social Decisions
Cost of Public Goods Affects Willingness to Pay for Them
We provided information about costs and benefits of public goods, mostly forms of risk reduction. Judgments of willingness to pay (WTP) for the goods was affected by cost as well as benefit, even when subjects judged the benefit to be unaffected by cost. Cost information affected WTP when it took the form of estimated cost or when it was simply implied by past expenditures or by descriptions of how a good would be provided. Cost affected WTP both…
Social roles and the moral judgement of acts and omissions
Three experiments investigated how moral judgements of harmful acts and omissions are affected by information about social roles. Subjects were given vignettes in which the relationship between an actor and victim was varied along the dimensions of solidarity (e.g. friends versus strangers) and hierachy (e.g. superior versus equal; the terms are from Hamilton & Sanders, 1981). Subjects were asked to judge the morality of the actor in each case, b…
Psychology (53 obras) · Economics (34 obras) · Social Psychology (34 obras) · Political science (27 obras) · Law (26 obras) · Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics (23 obras) · Epistemology (17 obras) · Computer Science (16 obras) · Social Psychology (15 obras) · Sociology (15 obras)