James E Campbell
Datos Biográficos
| ID | 3628008 |
|---|---|
| NOMBRE | James E Campbell |
| NOMBRES | James E |
| APELLIDO | Campbell |
| FIRMA | CAMPBELL J E |
| AFILIACIONES | University at Buffalo, State University of New York |
| ORCID | 0000-0001-6901-6834 |
| VERIFICADO | Sí |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 76 |
| TOTAL DE CITAS | 713 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 76 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMER AÑO DE PUBLICACIÓN | 1979 |
| AÑO MÁS RECIENTE DE PUBLICACIÓN | 2019 |
| ÍNDICE H | 14 |
The Trust Is Gone
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Polarized
Explaining Electoral Change in the 2018 US Midterm Elections
Why did the American electorate elect a solid majority of Republicans to the House in 2016 and then 2 years later replace it with a solid majority of Democrats? This article revives the idea of an electoral mandate and applies it to the 2016 and 2018 elections. It proposes a trinity of partisan attitudes serving as the components of electoral mandates: performance, values, and leadership. The election of President Trump in 2016 depended on a mix …
The Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2018 Midterm Congressional Elections
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Introduction
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A Recap of the 2016 Election Forecasts
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Polarized
Many continue to believe that the United States is a nation of political moderates. In fact, it is a nation divided. It has been so for some time and has grown more so. This book provides a new and historically grounded perspective on the polarization of America, systematically documenting how and why it happened. Polarized presents commonsense benchmarks to measure polarization, draws data from a wide range of historical sources, and carefully a…
The Trial-Heat and Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2016 Presidential and Congressional Elections
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Evaluations of the 2014 Midterm Election Forecasts
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The Republican Wave of 2014
This article examines the influences on the 2014 midterm congressional elections. The election was a decisive victory for the Republican Party. Republicans picked up nine Senate seats and with them control of the Senate. They also gained thirteen House seats, extending their House majority to its largest size in over 80 years. Although Republican seat gains can be explained at one level by the normal processes of surge and decline plus the midter…
The Seats-in-Trouble Forecast of the 2014 Midterm Congressional Elections
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Issues in Presidential Election Forecasting
Three issues of presidential election forecasting research are raised. The first concerns the consequences for forecasting models of presidential elections becoming more narrowly decided. A realigned and polarized party system has led to smaller election margins in presidential contests since 1984. This development complicates model estimation and may also have blurred differences between strong and weak forecasting models. The second issue conce…
The 2014 Midterm Election Forecasts
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The Miserable Presidential Election of 2012
This article examines the influences on the 2012 presidential election that led to the closely decided re-election of Barack Obama. Partisan parity, ideological polarization, a hyper-competitive campaign, and approval ratings for the incumbent, plus pre-convention preference polls that were evenly split, were strong signs that the 2012 presidential election would be close. The economic record of the Obama presidency, however, favored the election…
Recap
The October 2012 issue of PS published a symposium of presidential and congressional forecasts made in the months leading up to the election. In the following articles, the forecasters assess the accuracy of their models
Closeness Counts in Horse Shoes, Dancing, and Forecasting
On September 10, 2012, immediately following the close of the Democratic Party's national nominating convention and 57 days before Election Day on November 6, my Convention Bump and Economy Model predicted that Barack Obama was likely to receive 51.3% of the national two-party popular vote. The Convention Bump and Economy Model consists of Gallup's preconvention preference poll, the net convention bump in the polls, and an adjusted second quarter…
Has Growing Income Inequality Polarized the American Electorate? Class, Party, and Ideological Polarization
Objectives We investigate whether growing income inequality has heightened differences in economic interests between “the haves” and “the have nots” and if this class polarization has increased ideological polarization in the electorate. Methods We examine the trend in ideological orientation among low‐ and high‐income voters from 1972 to 2008. Results While both income inequality and ideological polarization have increased in recent years, this …
The President's Economy
Have D emocratic presidents since W orld W ar II had economic records that were superior to those of their R epublican counterparts? In a previous study, I reported findings that there were no significant differences between the economic records of the presidential parties once the conditions of the economy they inherited from their predecessor were taken into account. Comiskey and M arsh challenged this finding with an analysis that controlled f…
Forecasting the 2012 American National Elections
This symposium presents 13 articles forecasting the 2012 US national elections. Included in this collection are the eight national and one state presidential vote forecasting models published in PS: Political Science & Politics during the 2008 elections along with three additional forecasts and one article offering a composite of the forecasts. Although the focus remains on the presidential contest, as in past years, several articles extend their…
Forecasting the Presidential and Congressional Elections of 2012
This article presents forecasts of the 2012 presidential and US House of Representatives elections. The presidential forecasts are of the national two-party presidential vote percentage for the in-party candidate and are based on the trial-heat and economy forecasting equation and its companion convention-bump equation. The House election forecast is of the net seat change for the Democratic Party from 2010 to 2012. This forecast is produced from…
The Midterm Landslide of 2010
Democrats were trounced in the 2010 midterm elections. They lost six seats in the U.S. Senate, six governorships, and about 700 seats in state legislatures. Compared to 2008, Democrats lost 64 seats in the House and Republicans regained their House majority. The Republican majority elected in 2010 was the largest number of Republicans elected since 1946. The analysis finds that Republican seat gains resulted from the receding of the pro-Democrati…
The Economic Records of the Presidents
Several studies of the post-war American political economy find that Democratic presidents have been more successful than Republicans. Most recently, Bartels (2008) found that economic growth had been greater and that unemployment and income inequality had been lower under Democratic presidents since 1948. If true, these findings combined with the frequent success of Republicans in presidential elections pose a challenge to theories of retrospect…
Postmortems of the 2010 Midterm Election Forecasts
The “Seats in Trouble” forecasting model predicted in mid-August that Republicans would gain a landslide number of seats in the 2010 elections to the U.S. House of Representatives, and that this number would be sufficiently large to restore their majority control of the House, which was lost in the 2006 midterms. Republicans were predicted to gain approximately 51 or 52 seats, about the magnitude of their 1994 midterm victory and the largest seat…
Forecasts of the 2010 Midterm Elections
The fundamentals of electoral change in the 2010 midterm elections are unmistakable. Electoral change depends on two general sets of political conditions: those of the previous election or elections and those of the current election. Both favor the Republicans this year
The Exceptional Election of 2008
This research examines influences on the 2008 presidential election. With an unpopular Republican president, an unpopular war, and a slumping economy, 2008 looked to be a good year for the Democrats. On the other hand, open seat elections historically have been close and less affected by retrospective considerations. Moreover, partisanship, ideological polarization, and contested nominations in both parties inclined the electorate to an even divi…
Cosponsoring Legislation in the U. S. Congress
Since the mid-1930s in the Senate and the late-1.960s in the House, members of Congress have been permitted to cosponsor legislation. Many members have become very active in cosponsoring legislation, while others have shown some reluctance. This article investigates several possible reasons for differing levels of cosponsorship activity. The goals of securing re-election, gaining influence within the Congress, and producing good public policy, as…
Presidential Coattails and Midterm Losses in State Legislative Elections
The president's party consistently loses partisan control of state legislatures in midterm elections, a pattern similar to the loss of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in midterms. This study examines presidential coattails as a possible explanation of these losses. Aggregate state legislative election outcomes between 1944 and 1984 in 41 states are examined. The analysis indicates that the president's party gains seats in presidential …
Presidential Coattails in Senate Elections
Despite the diminished importance of partisanship, greater split-ticket voting, and a growth in Senate campaign spending, a party's presidential vote in the states remains positively related to its Senate vote in recent elections. We investigate to what extent presidential coattails are responsible for this association. State election returns for Senate and presidential contests are examined in presidential election years from 1972 to 1988. The a…
The Revised Theory of Surge and Decline
The status of Angus Campbell's theory of surge and decline is a matter of considerable controversy. While analysis of the composition and voting behavior of presidential and midterm electorates fails to support the theory, analysis of aggregate congressional election results yields supporting evidence. This research seeks to reconcile these findings by proposing and examining a revised version of the surge and decline theory. The analysis finds t…
Television Markets and Congressional Elections
This research examines the effects of the relative congruence of congressional districts and television markets on congressional elections. We consider propositions concerning the voters' information about and evaluations of the candidates, drawing on data from the U.S. Census, the Nielsen Station Index, and the CPS 1980 National Election Study. The findings indicate that market/district congruence increases voter information about, exposure to, …
Explaining Presidential Losses in Midterm Congressional Elections
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The Presidential Surge and its Midterm Decline in Congressional Elections, 1868-1988
This note examines the effects of presidential elections on congressional elections. Nationally aggregated congressional seat and vote change data for the 61 congressional elections held in presidential and midterm election years from 1868 to 1988 are examined in a single-equation model. The results indicate strong presidential "surge and decline" effects. In presidential election years, a party's presidential vote positively affects its congress…
Ambiguity in the Issue Positions of Presidential Candidates
This study investigated the causes of ambiguity in the issue positions of presidential candidates from 1968 to 1980. Three potential causes suggested by the research of Shepsle (1972) and Page (1976, 1978) were examined: issue salience, opinion dispersion, and issue proximity. Salience was found not to have a direct effect on ambiguity, but a slight, negative indirect effect. Opinion dispersion had a significant positive effect, and proximity had…
Forecasting the Presidential Vote in the States
This research updates, revises, and extends a forecasting equation of the presidential vote in the states. The original equation was composed of sixteen predictors available well before the election and estimated with data from 531 state elections from 1948 to 1988. The equation was empirically strong, based on objective predictors, and more parsimonious than previous equations. Reexamining the equation with 200 additional state elections from 19…
Predicting Seat Gains from Presidential Coattails
The electoral consequences of issue ambiguity
The Theory of Conditional Retrospective Voting
This research tests the idea that retrospective voting in presidential elections is conditional, that retrospective evaluations are applied more strictly to incumbents seeking election than to in-party candidates (successor candidates) who are not incumbents. Voters may assign only partial credit or blame for national conditions to successor candidates because, unlike incumbents, these candidates did not personally have power over the policies th…
The Presidential Pulse and the 1994 Midterm Congressional Election
The president's party lost more seats in 1994 than in any midterm election since 1946 The revised theory of surge and decline, which had successfully explained midterm losses since 1868, expected Democrats to lose only about half as many seats as they actually did This research attempts to determine why the theory failed to anticipate the large 1994 losses. The aggregate national-level analysis examines 13 midterm elections from 1946 to 1994. Fou…
Why Bush Won the Presidential Election of 2004
The Referendum that Didn't Happen
On August 29, 70 days before the election and more than 100 days before anyone would know who would be the next president, my trial-heat and economy model for forecasting presidential elections predicted that Al Gore would receive 52.8% of the national two-party popular vote. By the actual returns, after all the recounts and court rulings were completed, Gore received 50.3% of the national two-Party popular vote, 2.5 percentage points less than t…
Sources of the New Deal Realignment
T _HE SOURCES of partisan realignments have been the subject of considerable research. How do realignments occur? More specifically, who in the electorate is realigned? Two competing hypotheses have been offered in answer to this question the mobilization hypothesis and the conversion hypothesis. The mobilization hypothesis claims that the shift in the relative strengths of the parties is a result of new voters entering the electorate. People are…
Candidate Image Evaluations
This research attempts to distinguish image voting, the influence of the voter's assessment of the candidates' personal qualities on the vote, from image rationalization, the influence of the vote on the voter's assessment of the candidate's personal qualities. From an analysis of the opinions of a panel of voters examined during the 1976 presidential primaries it appears that although candidates' images have a substantial influence on the vote, …
The Exceptional Election of 2008
This research examines influences on the 2008 presidential election. With an unpopular Republican president, an unpopular war, and a slumping economy, 2008 looked to be a good year for the Democrats. On the other hand, open seat elections historically have been close and less affected by retrospective considerations. Moreover, partisanship, ideological polarization, and contested nominations in both parties inclined the electorate to an even divi…
Party Systems and Realignments in the United States, 1868-2004
According to David Mayhew (2002: 58-59, 35), “Neither statistics nor stories bear out the canonical realignments calendar of 1860, 1896, and 1932,” and “no certifiable electoral realignment has occurred since 1932.” This study examines the national division of the U.S. presidential vote and House of Representatives seats from 1868 to 2004 to determine whether realignments occurred in 1896, 1932, and 1968 and whether other elections might be bette…
The Return of the Incumbents
Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use, available at
Has Growing Income Inequality Polarized the American Electorate? Class, Party, and Ideological Polarization
Objectives We investigate whether growing income inequality has heightened differences in economic interests between “the haves” and “the have nots” and if this class polarization has increased ideological polarization in the electorate. Methods We examine the trend in ideological orientation among low‐ and high‐income voters from 1972 to 2008. Results While both income inequality and ideological polarization have increased in recent years, this …
The Seats in Trouble Forecast of the 2010 Elections to the U.S. House
All indications are that 2010 will be a very good year for Republicans. After two election setbacks, they are poised for a comeback. Partisanship, ideology, the midterm decline from the prior presidential surge, the partisanship of districts being defended, and even President Obama's approval ratings have set the stage for significant seat gains by Republicans in the House
Explaining Politics, Not Polls
Journal Article Explaining Politics, Not Polls: Reexamining Macropartisanship with Recalibrated NES Data Get access James E. Campbell James E. Campbell Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Public Opinion Quarterly, Volume 74, Issue 4, Winter 2010, Pages 616–642, https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfq042 Published: 23 September 2010
Introduction
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
The President's Economy
Have D emocratic presidents since W orld W ar II had economic records that were superior to those of their R epublican counterparts? In a previous study, I reported findings that there were no significant differences between the economic records of the presidential parties once the conditions of the economy they inherited from their predecessor were taken into account. Comiskey and M arsh challenged this finding with an analysis that controlled f…
Style issues and vote choice
Legislative studies quarterly
Cosponsoring Legislation in the U. S. Congress
Since the mid-1930s in the Senate and the late-1.960s in the House, members of Congress have been permitted to cosponsor legislation. Many members have become very active in cosponsoring legislation, while others have shown some reluctance. This article investigates several possible reasons for differing levels of cosponsorship activity. The goals of securing re-election, gaining influence within the Congress, and producing good public policy, as…
Candidate Image Evaluations
This research attempts to distinguish image voting, the influence of the voter's assessment of the candidates' personal qualities on the vote, from image rationalization, the influence of the vote on the voter's assessment of the candidate's personal qualities. From an analysis of the opinions of a panel of voters examined during the 1976 presidential primaries it appears that although candidates' images have a substantial influence on the vote, …
The electoral consequences of issue ambiguity
Ambiguity in the Issue Positions of Presidential Candidates
This study investigated the causes of ambiguity in the issue positions of presidential candidates from 1968 to 1980. Three potential causes suggested by the research of Shepsle (1972) and Page (1976, 1978) were examined: issue salience, opinion dispersion, and issue proximity. Salience was found not to have a direct effect on ambiguity, but a slight, negative indirect effect. Opinion dispersion had a significant positive effect, and proximity had…
The Return of the Incumbents
Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use, available at
Television Markets and Congressional Elections
This research examines the effects of the relative congruence of congressional districts and television markets on congressional elections. We consider propositions concerning the voters' information about and evaluations of the candidates, drawing on data from the U.S. Census, the Nielsen Station Index, and the CPS 1980 National Election Study. The findings indicate that market/district congruence increases voter information about, exposure to, …
Explaining Presidential Losses in Midterm Congressional Elections
Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use, available at
Sources of the New Deal Realignment
T _HE SOURCES of partisan realignments have been the subject of considerable research. How do realignments occur? More specifically, who in the electorate is realigned? Two competing hypotheses have been offered in answer to this question the mobilization hypothesis and the conversion hypothesis. The mobilization hypothesis claims that the shift in the relative strengths of the parties is a result of new voters entering the electorate. People are…
Public Support for Comparable Worth in Georgia
Women's groups and some labor unions are increasingly pressing public personnel systems to pay women as much as men not only for equal but for work of comparable worth.' The State of Washington performed first important comparable worth study in 1974. The study estimated that male-dominated occupations paid 20 percent more than female-dominated occupations requiring similar knowledge and skills, mental demands, accountability, and working conditi…
Predicting Seat Gains from Presidential Coattails
Forecasting the 1986 Midterm Elections to the House of Representatives
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Voter Mobilization and the New Deal Realignment
Presidential Coattails and Midterm Losses in State Legislative Elections
The president's party consistently loses partisan control of state legislatures in midterm elections, a pattern similar to the loss of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in midterms. This study examines presidential coattails as a possible explanation of these losses. Aggregate state legislative election outcomes between 1944 and 1984 in 41 states are examined. The analysis indicates that the president's party gains seats in presidential …
Evaluating the 1986 Congressional Election Forecasts
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
The Revised Theory of Surge and Decline
The status of Angus Campbell's theory of surge and decline is a matter of considerable controversy. While analysis of the composition and voting behavior of presidential and midterm electorates fails to support the theory, analysis of aggregate congressional election results yields supporting evidence. This research seeks to reconcile these findings by proposing and examining a revised version of the surge and decline theory. The analysis finds t…
Presidential Coattails in Senate Elections
Despite the diminished importance of partisanship, greater split-ticket voting, and a growth in Senate campaign spending, a party's presidential vote in the states remains positively related to its Senate vote in recent elections. We investigate to what extent presidential coattails are responsible for this association. State election returns for Senate and presidential contests are examined in presidential election years from 1972 to 1988. The a…
The Presidential Surge and its Midterm Decline in Congressional Elections, 1868-1988
This note examines the effects of presidential elections on congressional elections. Nationally aggregated congressional seat and vote change data for the 61 congressional elections held in presidential and midterm election years from 1868 to 1988 are examined in a single-equation model. The results indicate strong presidential "surge and decline" effects. In presidential election years, a party's presidential vote positively affects its congress…
NSF Funding Opportunities for Political Science Research
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. As you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button
Forecasting the Presidential Vote in the States
This research updates, revises, and extends a forecasting equation of the presidential vote in the states. The original equation was composed of sixteen predictors available well before the election and estimated with data from 531 state elections from 1948 to 1988. The equation was empirically strong, based on objective predictors, and more parsimonious than previous equations. Reexamining the equation with 200 additional state elections from 19…
Forecasting Elections. Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Tom W. Rice
The Presidential Pulse of Congressional Elections
The Presidential Pulse of Congressional Elections
Midterm
Journal Article Midterm: The Elections of 1994 in Context Get access Midterm: The Elections of 1994 in Context edited by Philip A. Klinkner. Boulder, CO, Westview Press, 1996. 202 pp. Cloth, $75.00; paper, $19.95. James E. Campbell James E. Campbell Louisiana State University Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Political Science Quarterly, Volume 112, Issue 4, Winter 1997, Pages 698–700, https://doi.org/10.230…
Political science (71 obras) · Law (60 obras) · Politics (57 obras) · Electoral Systems and Political Participation (54 obras) · Law (42 obras) · Economics (41 obras) · Presidential system (40 obras) · Political economy (30 obras) · Presidential election (28 obras) · Public Administration (26 obras)