Guillermo Rosas
Datos Biográficos
| ID | 3670199 |
|---|---|
| NOMBRE | Guillermo Rosas |
| NOMBRES | Guillermo |
| APELLIDO | Rosas |
| FIRMA | ROSAS G |
| AFILIACIONES | Washington University in St. Louis |
| ORCID | 0000-0001-9166-3296 |
| VERIFICADO | Sí |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 29 |
| TOTAL DE CITAS | 336 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 29 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMER AÑO DE PUBLICACIÓN | 2005 |
| AÑO MÁS RECIENTE DE PUBLICACIÓN | 2025 |
| ÍNDICE H | 11 |
Examining the association of sociodemographic characteristics on self-reported changes in health-related behaviors, mental health, and quality of life during the Covid-19 pandemic in Brazil
The challenges faced during COVID-19 for the public health were unprecedent in the last 100 years. The necessity to adapt lifestyles during this period highlighted inequalities in health-related behaviors, quality of life and mental health of the population, especially in unequal countries like Brazil. To analyze the associations of sociodemographic characteristics and recalled changes in health-related behavior, mental health, and quality of lif…
A Model of Party Effects on Legislative Behavior Based on Roll-Call Data
Association between trust in the incumbent president and Covid-19 preventive behaviors during the pandemic in four Latin American countries
The COVID-19 pandemic revealed disparities in policy responses in Latin America. We examined the association between trust in the president and COVID-19 preventive behaviors in Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico. We used data from the Collaborative COVID-19 Response Survey by the McDonnell Academy at Washington University in St. Louis (United States), from September 2020 to March 2021. Nonprobabilistic sampling included adult citizens from the f…
Borrowing to Self-Insure? Credit Access and Support for Welfare
The idea that credit can be a private form of insurance against economic shocks has recently gained credence, but do individuals really see bank credit as an acceptable substitute for social insurance? We conjecture that credit constitutes a viable alternative to social insurance for those with high incomes and those who face low risk from unemployment. Relying on observational data from the European Social Survey between 2002 and 2010 we conclud…
If Foreign, Then Cleaner
Extant literature on public opinion in international political economy documents the role that domestic corruption perceptions play in the formation of mass attitudes toward a range of integration-related foreign policies. Based on this precedent, we conjecture that corruption perceptions also affect opinions toward free trade. We build on a heuristic approach to attitude formation where individual perceptions of corruption among the political el…
Self-perception of mental health, Covid-19 and associated sociodemographic-contextual factors in Latin America
This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of alterations in self-perceived mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic and their associated factors in four Latin American countries. This is a cross-sectional study based on data collected from adults in 2021 through the Collaborative Response COVID-19 Survey by the MacDonnell Academy at Washington University in St. Louis (United States). The sample was composed of 8,125 individuals from Brazil, C…
La Fuerza Positiva De La Liturgia Del Vaticano Ii. A Casi 50 Años De Sacrosanctum Concilium
En la cercanía del 50o aniversario de la Constitución sobre la Sagrada Liturgia del Concilio Vaticano II, Sacrosanctum Concilium (4 diciembre 1963), el autor reflexio-na, desde su convicción personal de la fuerza positiva que la liturgia reformada ha ejercido en la Iglesia, sobre algunos temas de fondo. La ocasión la da el clima de in-terés y de discusión que se advierte en los últimos años en torno a la liturgia. Intenta ir a los fundamentos que…
Endogenous democracy
Despite a high cross-country correlation between development and democracy, it is difficult to gauge the impact of economic development on the probability that autocracies will transition to democracy because of endogeneity, especially due to reverse causation and omitted variable bias. Hence, whether development causes democracy remains a contested issue. We exploit exogeneity in the regional variation of potato cultivation along with the timing…
Does Economic Inequality Drive Voters' Disagreement about Party Placement
Does economic inequality warp voters' views about party platforms? If so, are voters' perceptual biases systemically shaped by their economic status? Drawing from a psychological theory of class conflict, we argue that income inequality heightens disagreement about party positions among people with different economic status. Analyzing survey responses on perceived ideological positions of 700 + parties in over 110 elections, we reveal that poorer…
Jumping Ship or Jumping on the Bandwagon
Local politicians are often expected to mobilize voters on behalf of copartisan candidates for national office. Yet this requirement is difficult to enforce because the effort of local politicians cannot be easily monitored and the promise of rewards in exchange for help is not fully credible. Using a formal model, we show that the incentives of local politicians to mobilize voters on behalf of their party depend on the proportion of copartisan o…
Open for Politics? Globalization, Economic Growth, and Responsibility Attribution
Previous literature suggests that economic performance affects government approval asymmetrically, either because voters are quicker to blame incompetence than to credit ability (grievance asymmetry) or because they understand that the degree to which policy-makers can affect the economy varies depending on economic openness (clarity of responsibility asymmetry). We seek to understand whether these asymmetries coexist, arguing that these theories…
On Board with Banks
Do politicians benefit electorally from connections to banks? Recent research illuminates how banks benefit from political connections, yet we do not know much about the impact of bank connections on a politician's reelection chances. We consider the German system of publicly owned local savings banks to assess whether local politicians who sit on bank boards are likelier to win reelection for their parties. Based on data from 3,214 mayoral elect…
Risky business
Is the incumbent curse the incumbent's fault? Strategic behavior and negative incumbency effects in young democracies
Reassessing the trade-off hypothesis
No News Is News
Roll-call votes are widely employed to infer the ideological proclivities of legislators. However, many roll-call matrices are characterized by high levels of nonresponse. Under many circumstances, nonresponse cannot be assumed to be ignorable. We examine the consequences of violating the ignorability assumption that underlies current methods of roll-call analysis. We present a basic estimation framework to model nonresponse and vote choice concu…
Local public goods as vote-purchasing devices? Persuasion and mobilization in the choice of clientelist payments
We consider the behavior of an incumbent that can deploy local public goods and private goods to buy votes, and is unable to verify vote choice but capable of monitoring voter turnout, a common scenario in secret-ballot polities. As advanced by recent literature, the ability to monitor turnout rather than vote choice implies that politicians should use targetable private goods to mobilize voters. However, politicians also deploy non-excludable lo…
When do autonomous banking regulators promote stability
Can autonomous banking regulatory agencies reduce the odds that a country will suffer a crippling banking crisis? We investigate the impact that agencies charged with banking regulation and prudential supervision can have on financial stability in the banking sector. We argue that the potential benefits of autonomy are hard to realise because banking regulators face incentives to shirk in their mandate to secure banking stability. These incentive…
Political Liabilities
Little is known about the political repercussions of banking crises despite the extensive literature on the link between economic performance and political outcomes. We develop a theory of how clarity of responsibility affects incumbent party survival patterns in 89 democracies between 1975 and 2005. Our results are robust to modeling strategies that include hazard models with shared frailties to account for country-specific factors that affect i…
Gubernatorial Effects on the Voting Behavior of National Legislators
Are subnational political elites, such as governors, capable of affecting the voting behavior of national representatives even in the face of high legislative discipline? We address this question by estimating the exogenous causal effect of gubernatorial influence on the voting behavior of national legislators in Mexico, where constitutional provisions guarantee that the political survival times of governors and legislators are fixed and known ex…
Latin American Party Systems
Political parties provide a crucial link between voters and politicians. This link takes a variety of forms in democratic regimes, from the organization of political machines built around clientelistic networks to the establishment of sophisticated programmatic parties. Latin American Party Systems provides a novel theoretical argument to account for differences in the degree to which political party systems in the region were programmatically st…
Trust in elections and the institutional design of electoral authorities
Vote-seeking incentives and investment environments
Dynamic latent trait models
Models of Nonresponse in Legislative Politics
Tools dedicated to inferring the ideological leanings of legislators from observed votes—techniques such as NOMINATE (Poole and Rosenthal 1997) or the item‐response‐theory model of Clinton, Jackman, and Rivers (2004)—rest on the assumption that the political process that generates abstentions is ignorable, an assumption not always easy to justify. We extended the item‐response‐theory model to analyze abstention and voting processes simultaneously…
Gubernatorial Effects on the Voting Behavior of National Legislators
Are subnational political elites, such as governors, capable of affecting the voting behavior of national representatives even in the face of high legislative discipline? We address this question by estimating the exogenous causal effect of gubernatorial influence on the voting behavior of national legislators in Mexico, where constitutional provisions guarantee that the political survival times of governors and legislators are fixed and known ex…
Trust in elections and the institutional design of electoral authorities
The Ideological Organization of Latin American Legislative Parties
Are legislative party systems in Latin America organized along ideological lines? This article presents a cross-country analysis of legislators’ positions on a variety of issues, such as government intervention in the economy, the value of democratic competition, attitudes toward cultural minorities, and views on international openness. The study is based on discriminant analysis of data from a 1997 survey of legislators in 12 countries. The purp…
Bagehot or Bailout? An Analysis of Government Responses to Banking Crises
Political intervention into markets can take a nearly endless number of forms. During the latter part of the twentieth century, there was a widely shared sense that governments should decrease their role in the economy. Still, there were important variations in this trend. In response to onerous banking crises, countries chose policies that varied dramatically between rescuing insolvent banks (Bailout) and enforcing bank closures (Bagehot). Bailo…
No News Is News
Roll-call votes are widely employed to infer the ideological proclivities of legislators. However, many roll-call matrices are characterized by high levels of nonresponse. Under many circumstances, nonresponse cannot be assumed to be ignorable. We examine the consequences of violating the ignorability assumption that underlies current methods of roll-call analysis. We present a basic estimation framework to model nonresponse and vote choice concu…
Models of Nonresponse in Legislative Politics
Tools dedicated to inferring the ideological leanings of legislators from observed votes—techniques such as NOMINATE (Poole and Rosenthal 1997) or the item‐response‐theory model of Clinton, Jackman, and Rivers (2004)—rest on the assumption that the political process that generates abstentions is ignorable, an assumption not always easy to justify. We extended the item‐response‐theory model to analyze abstention and voting processes simultaneously…
Political Liabilities
Little is known about the political repercussions of banking crises despite the extensive literature on the link between economic performance and political outcomes. We develop a theory of how clarity of responsibility affects incumbent party survival patterns in 89 democracies between 1975 and 2005. Our results are robust to modeling strategies that include hazard models with shared frailties to account for country-specific factors that affect i…
Foreign Direct Investment and Income Inequality in Mexico, 1990–2000
In this paper we explore the relationship between the investments of multinational corporations (foreign direct investment) and income inequality in Mexico. We argue that Mexico's liberalization of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in the 1990s provides a natural experiment to test how FDI affects income inequality in a middle-income country. We use an instrumental variables approach as our identification strategy to mitigate problems of en…
Reassessing the trade-off hypothesis
Partisanship in non-partisan electoral agencies and democratic compliance
Vote-seeking incentives and investment environments
Is the incumbent curse the incumbent's fault? Strategic behavior and negative incumbency effects in young democracies
Local public goods as vote-purchasing devices? Persuasion and mobilization in the choice of clientelist payments
We consider the behavior of an incumbent that can deploy local public goods and private goods to buy votes, and is unable to verify vote choice but capable of monitoring voter turnout, a common scenario in secret-ballot polities. As advanced by recent literature, the ability to monitor turnout rather than vote choice implies that politicians should use targetable private goods to mobilize voters. However, politicians also deploy non-excludable lo…
On Board with Banks
Do politicians benefit electorally from connections to banks? Recent research illuminates how banks benefit from political connections, yet we do not know much about the impact of bank connections on a politician's reelection chances. We consider the German system of publicly owned local savings banks to assess whether local politicians who sit on bank boards are likelier to win reelection for their parties. Based on data from 3,214 mayoral elect…
When do autonomous banking regulators promote stability
Can autonomous banking regulatory agencies reduce the odds that a country will suffer a crippling banking crisis? We investigate the impact that agencies charged with banking regulation and prudential supervision can have on financial stability in the banking sector. We argue that the potential benefits of autonomy are hard to realise because banking regulators face incentives to shirk in their mandate to secure banking stability. These incentive…
Open for Politics? Globalization, Economic Growth, and Responsibility Attribution
Previous literature suggests that economic performance affects government approval asymmetrically, either because voters are quicker to blame incompetence than to credit ability (grievance asymmetry) or because they understand that the degree to which policy-makers can affect the economy varies depending on economic openness (clarity of responsibility asymmetry). We seek to understand whether these asymmetries coexist, arguing that these theories…
Does Economic Inequality Drive Voters' Disagreement about Party Placement
Does economic inequality warp voters' views about party platforms? If so, are voters' perceptual biases systemically shaped by their economic status? Drawing from a psychological theory of class conflict, we argue that income inequality heightens disagreement about party positions among people with different economic status. Analyzing survey responses on perceived ideological positions of 700 + parties in over 110 elections, we reveal that poorer…
Dynamic latent trait models
Borrowing to Self-Insure? Credit Access and Support for Welfare
The idea that credit can be a private form of insurance against economic shocks has recently gained credence, but do individuals really see bank credit as an acceptable substitute for social insurance? We conjecture that credit constitutes a viable alternative to social insurance for those with high incomes and those who face low risk from unemployment. Relying on observational data from the European Social Survey between 2002 and 2010 we conclud…
Jumping Ship or Jumping on the Bandwagon
Local politicians are often expected to mobilize voters on behalf of copartisan candidates for national office. Yet this requirement is difficult to enforce because the effort of local politicians cannot be easily monitored and the promise of rewards in exchange for help is not fully credible. Using a formal model, we show that the incentives of local politicians to mobilize voters on behalf of their party depend on the proportion of copartisan o…
Risky business
If Foreign, Then Cleaner
Extant literature on public opinion in international political economy documents the role that domestic corruption perceptions play in the formation of mass attitudes toward a range of integration-related foreign policies. Based on this precedent, we conjecture that corruption perceptions also affect opinions toward free trade. We build on a heuristic approach to attitude formation where individual perceptions of corruption among the political el…
Bagehot or Bailout? An Analysis of Government Responses to Banking Crises
Political intervention into markets can take a nearly endless number of forms. During the latter part of the twentieth century, there was a widely shared sense that governments should decrease their role in the economy. Still, there were important variations in this trend. In response to onerous banking crises, countries chose policies that varied dramatically between rescuing insolvent banks (Bailout) and enforcing bank closures (Bagehot). Bailo…
The Ideological Organization of Latin American Legislative Parties
Are legislative party systems in Latin America organized along ideological lines? This article presents a cross-country analysis of legislators’ positions on a variety of issues, such as government intervention in the economy, the value of democratic competition, attitudes toward cultural minorities, and views on international openness. The study is based on discriminant analysis of data from a 1997 survey of legislators in 12 countries. The purp…
Foreign Direct Investment and Income Inequality in Mexico, 1990–2000
In this paper we explore the relationship between the investments of multinational corporations (foreign direct investment) and income inequality in Mexico. We argue that Mexico's liberalization of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in the 1990s provides a natural experiment to test how FDI affects income inequality in a middle-income country. We use an instrumental variables approach as our identification strategy to mitigate problems of en…
Models of Nonresponse in Legislative Politics
Tools dedicated to inferring the ideological leanings of legislators from observed votes—techniques such as NOMINATE (Poole and Rosenthal 1997) or the item‐response‐theory model of Clinton, Jackman, and Rivers (2004)—rest on the assumption that the political process that generates abstentions is ignorable, an assumption not always easy to justify. We extended the item‐response‐theory model to analyze abstention and voting processes simultaneously…
Partisanship in non-partisan electoral agencies and democratic compliance
Dynamic latent trait models
Latin American Party Systems
Political parties provide a crucial link between voters and politicians. This link takes a variety of forms in democratic regimes, from the organization of political machines built around clientelistic networks to the establishment of sophisticated programmatic parties. Latin American Party Systems provides a novel theoretical argument to account for differences in the degree to which political party systems in the region were programmatically st…
Trust in elections and the institutional design of electoral authorities
Vote-seeking incentives and investment environments
Gubernatorial Effects on the Voting Behavior of National Legislators
Are subnational political elites, such as governors, capable of affecting the voting behavior of national representatives even in the face of high legislative discipline? We address this question by estimating the exogenous causal effect of gubernatorial influence on the voting behavior of national legislators in Mexico, where constitutional provisions guarantee that the political survival times of governors and legislators are fixed and known ex…
No News Is News
Roll-call votes are widely employed to infer the ideological proclivities of legislators. However, many roll-call matrices are characterized by high levels of nonresponse. Under many circumstances, nonresponse cannot be assumed to be ignorable. We examine the consequences of violating the ignorability assumption that underlies current methods of roll-call analysis. We present a basic estimation framework to model nonresponse and vote choice concu…
Local public goods as vote-purchasing devices? Persuasion and mobilization in the choice of clientelist payments
We consider the behavior of an incumbent that can deploy local public goods and private goods to buy votes, and is unable to verify vote choice but capable of monitoring voter turnout, a common scenario in secret-ballot polities. As advanced by recent literature, the ability to monitor turnout rather than vote choice implies that politicians should use targetable private goods to mobilize voters. However, politicians also deploy non-excludable lo…
When do autonomous banking regulators promote stability
Can autonomous banking regulatory agencies reduce the odds that a country will suffer a crippling banking crisis? We investigate the impact that agencies charged with banking regulation and prudential supervision can have on financial stability in the banking sector. We argue that the potential benefits of autonomy are hard to realise because banking regulators face incentives to shirk in their mandate to secure banking stability. These incentive…
Political Liabilities
Little is known about the political repercussions of banking crises despite the extensive literature on the link between economic performance and political outcomes. We develop a theory of how clarity of responsibility affects incumbent party survival patterns in 89 democracies between 1975 and 2005. Our results are robust to modeling strategies that include hazard models with shared frailties to account for country-specific factors that affect i…
Reassessing the trade-off hypothesis
Is the incumbent curse the incumbent's fault? Strategic behavior and negative incumbency effects in young democracies
Risky business
Open for Politics? Globalization, Economic Growth, and Responsibility Attribution
Previous literature suggests that economic performance affects government approval asymmetrically, either because voters are quicker to blame incompetence than to credit ability (grievance asymmetry) or because they understand that the degree to which policy-makers can affect the economy varies depending on economic openness (clarity of responsibility asymmetry). We seek to understand whether these asymmetries coexist, arguing that these theories…
On Board with Banks
Do politicians benefit electorally from connections to banks? Recent research illuminates how banks benefit from political connections, yet we do not know much about the impact of bank connections on a politician's reelection chances. We consider the German system of publicly owned local savings banks to assess whether local politicians who sit on bank boards are likelier to win reelection for their parties. Based on data from 3,214 mayoral elect…
Jumping Ship or Jumping on the Bandwagon
Local politicians are often expected to mobilize voters on behalf of copartisan candidates for national office. Yet this requirement is difficult to enforce because the effort of local politicians cannot be easily monitored and the promise of rewards in exchange for help is not fully credible. Using a formal model, we show that the incentives of local politicians to mobilize voters on behalf of their party depend on the proportion of copartisan o…
Endogenous democracy
Despite a high cross-country correlation between development and democracy, it is difficult to gauge the impact of economic development on the probability that autocracies will transition to democracy because of endogeneity, especially due to reverse causation and omitted variable bias. Hence, whether development causes democracy remains a contested issue. We exploit exogeneity in the regional variation of potato cultivation along with the timing…
Does Economic Inequality Drive Voters' Disagreement about Party Placement
Does economic inequality warp voters' views about party platforms? If so, are voters' perceptual biases systemically shaped by their economic status? Drawing from a psychological theory of class conflict, we argue that income inequality heightens disagreement about party positions among people with different economic status. Analyzing survey responses on perceived ideological positions of 700 + parties in over 110 elections, we reveal that poorer…
La Fuerza Positiva De La Liturgia Del Vaticano Ii. A Casi 50 Años De Sacrosanctum Concilium
En la cercanía del 50o aniversario de la Constitución sobre la Sagrada Liturgia del Concilio Vaticano II, Sacrosanctum Concilium (4 diciembre 1963), el autor reflexio-na, desde su convicción personal de la fuerza positiva que la liturgia reformada ha ejercido en la Iglesia, sobre algunos temas de fondo. La ocasión la da el clima de in-terés y de discusión que se advierte en los últimos años en torno a la liturgia. Intenta ir a los fundamentos que…
Borrowing to Self-Insure? Credit Access and Support for Welfare
The idea that credit can be a private form of insurance against economic shocks has recently gained credence, but do individuals really see bank credit as an acceptable substitute for social insurance? We conjecture that credit constitutes a viable alternative to social insurance for those with high incomes and those who face low risk from unemployment. Relying on observational data from the European Social Survey between 2002 and 2010 we conclud…
If Foreign, Then Cleaner
Extant literature on public opinion in international political economy documents the role that domestic corruption perceptions play in the formation of mass attitudes toward a range of integration-related foreign policies. Based on this precedent, we conjecture that corruption perceptions also affect opinions toward free trade. We build on a heuristic approach to attitude formation where individual perceptions of corruption among the political el…
Political science (24 obras) · Economics (21 obras) · Politics (19 obras) · Law (16 obras) · Law (15 obras) · Electoral Systems and Political Participation (12 obras) · Political economy (12 obras) · Sociology (9 obras) · Business (7 obras) · Latin Americans (7 obras)