Robert Johns
Datos Biográficos
| ID | 3717472 |
|---|---|
| NOMBRE | Robert Johns |
| NOMBRES | Robert |
| APELLIDO | Johns |
| FIRMA | JOHNS R |
| AFILIACIONES | University of Essex |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-4543-7463 |
| VERIFICADO | Sí |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 49 |
| TOTAL DE CITAS | 603 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 49 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMER AÑO DE PUBLICACIÓN | 1984 |
| AÑO MÁS RECIENTE DE PUBLICACIÓN | 2025 |
| ÍNDICE H | 13 |
Hope, Optimism, and Expectations for the Political Future
Expectations of what the future holds are a significant driver of political behavior. It is therefore important to understand the sources of those expectations. In this paper, we explore the psychological dispositions driving positivity about the political future. We draw on psychologists’ distinction between optimism—a dispositional belief that good things will happen, come what may—and hope—a trait of envisioning, pursuing and believing one’s g…
Political Scandals and Vertical Contagion in Multilevel Systems
Can a scandal in one political sphere tarnish – or unexpectedly polish – the reputation of leaders in another? This study investigates the impact of political scandals in multilevel political systems and explores three possibilities: contagion , where trust erodes across all political levels; containment , where evaluations are limited to the specific institutions involved; and contrast , where actors at other levels appear more trustworthy in co…
Does being ‘left behind’ corrode government legitimacy? Tax morale and economic stress
By now we are familiar with studies which tie being ‘left behind’ to voter support for populist or other extreme views. In the UK case, this is seen in support for Brexit but can also apply to support of parties such as UKIP (e.g. Bolet, 2021; Ford and Goodwin, 2014). Comparative studies show that electoral support for populist parties in part reflects lowered trust in mainstream politics (e.g. Geurkink et al., 2020; Keefer et al., 2021; Mauk, 20…
Public Reactions to Communication of Uncertainty
Uncertainty is a fact of political life but not a fact of political communication. But this calculation might both exaggerate the costs and downplay the potential benefits of reporting uncertainty. On costs, the evidence from previous studies is mixed; on benefits, previous research has neglected the possibility that, by acknowledging that outcomes may be worse than expected, those communicating uncertainty will dampen public reactions to the bad…
The Referendum that Changed a Nation
Referendum That Changed a Nation
Care Act 2014
There is something to be said for titles of books that describe exactly what they are, doing ‘what it says on the tin’. This guide focuses on the Care Act 2014, breaking it down into its component and associated parts, highlighting what the author considers to be key aspects relevant to practice, incorporating related pieces of relevant legislation, and then organises the material into alphabetical order. It is difficult to overstate the importan…
As You Were
The Scottish Parliament election of May 2021 was an ‘as you were’ election. Vote shares were more or less as in the previous election five years earlier. Barely any seats changed hands and the Scottish National Party (SNP) was left tantalisingly short of a majority. One reason for this stasis is that voting in Scottish elections remains largely an expression of support or opposition to independence—and opinions on that issue are deeply entrenched…
Parties, movements and the 2014 Scottish independence referendum
Some political parties have experienced a resurgence in membership. This article seeks to explain membership surges in the Scottish National Party and Scottish Greens following the 2014 referendum on Scottish independence and an unusually movement-like campaign. Using data from a 2016–17 survey of the parties’ memberships, we examine why large numbers joined these pro-independence parties following defeat in the referendum. We demonstrate that th…
Depression and attitudes to change in referendums
Depression is the most common mental illness and its profound impact on cognition and decision‐making has implications for political judgement. However, those implications are unclear in the case of referendums offering a choice between status quo and change. On one hand, one component of depression is the kind of life dissatisfaction associated with voting for change. Yet cognitive models also portray depression sufferers as biased towards the s…
Scottish Labour as a case study in party failure
For Scottish Labour to be reduced to a single MP in Scotland once might seem like misfortune: that in 2019 they suffered the same fate looks like carelessness. While much focus of the 2019 UK General Election in Scotland will be on the SNP, an equally interesting puzzle is the electoral performance of the once dominant party in Scotland. In this article we explore what helps to explain why formerly successful parties fail, identifying explanation…
When long-distance relationships don't work out
Moderation and Competence
We combine several strands of research from electoral behavior and party politics to suggest that ideological moderation will boost a party's perceived competence. Less radical parties are seen as readier to compromise, more realistic about what can be achieved, and less prone to simplistic solutions. The results of conjoint experiments with party profiles show that while an ideological leaning carries no cost, any appreciably left‐ or right‐wing…
Civilian Casualties and Public Support for Military Action
In contrast to the expansive literature on military casualties and support for war, we know very little about public reactions to foreign civilian casualties. This article, based on representative sample surveys in the United States and Britain, reports four survey experiments weaving information about civilian casualties into vignettes about Western military action. These produce consistent evidence of civilian casualty aversion: where death tol…
Rating the debates
R2P from below
The domestic consequences of international over-cooperation
While questions about the diplomatic effectiveness of hawkish or dovish policies are crucially important, little research has been conducted on the domestic political risks and benefits associated with a chosen policy. This paper provides evidence to suggest why elites avoid the use of inducements and focus on more hawkish policies. Specifically this article focuses on the public opinion risks associated with offering an inducement that does not …
More Scottish than British
Using official statistics, this book explores how the SNP managed to confound expectations and win a parliamentary majority in the 2011 Scottish General Election. Perhaps surprisingly, it was not cons
More Scottish Than British
The Declining Representativeness of the British Party System, and Why it Matters
In a recent article, Michael Laver has explained ‘Why Vote-Seeking Parties May Make Voters Miserable’. His model shows that, while ideological convergence may boost congruence between governments and the median voter, it can reduce congruence between the party system and the electorate as a whole. Specifically, convergence can increase the mean distance between voters and their nearest party. In this article we show that this captures the reality…
Giving voters what they want? Party orientation perceptions and preferences in the British electorate
Some of the most important propositions in the political marketing literature hinge on assumptions about the electorate. In particular, voters are presumed to react in different ways to different orientations or postures. Yet there are theoretical reasons for questioning some of these assumptions, and certainly they have seldom been empirically tested. Here, we focus on one prominent example of political marketing research: Lees-Marshment’s orien…
Coalitions of the willing? International backing and British public support for military action
Studies of public support for war highlight the importance of context. Most people do not simply support or oppose the use of force but instead assess its merits depending on various aspects of the situation. One such aspect is the extent of international backing - whether from individual states or supranational organizations - for military action. This backing may be active, notably through the contribution of troops, or more a passive matter of…
Constitution or Competence? the SNP's Re-Election in 2011
The Scottish National Party's outright win in the Scottish Parliament election on 5 May 2011 confounded pre-election polls and commentaries as well as a (broadly) proportional electoral system which was held to minimise the risk of a Nationalist majority moving Scotland to independence. But an extraordinary result in historical context looks much more ordinary when we explore voters' attitudes and choices. According to data from the ESRC-funded S…
Audience Costs among the British Public
This article reports on an audience costs experiment embedded into a survey of the British public (N = 2235). We extend previous research into audience costs in three main directions. First, we provide clear and direct evidence that they exist for a second-order democratic power, the United Kingdom. Second, we show that the extent of audience costs varies, and at times substantially, along with features of the crisis situation that have not been …
Democratic Peace or Clash of Civilizations? Target States and Support for War in Britain and the United States
Research on public support for war shows that citizens are responsive to various aspects of strategic context. Less attention has been paid to the core characteristics of the target state. In this comparative study we report survey experiments manipulating two such characteristics, regime type and dominant faith, to test whether the "democratic peace" and the "clash of civilizations" theses are reflected in U.S. and British public opinion. The ba…
Democratic Peace or Clash of Civilizations? Target States and Support for War in Britain and the United States
Research on public support for war shows that citizens are responsive to various aspects of strategic context. Less attention has been paid to the core characteristics of the target state. In this comparative study we report survey experiments manipulating two such characteristics, regime type and dominant faith, to test whether the "democratic peace" and the "clash of civilizations" theses are reflected in U.S. and British public opinion. The ba…
Credit Where it’s Due? Valence Politics, Attributions of Responsibility, and Multi-Level Elections
Audience Costs among the British Public
This article reports on an audience costs experiment embedded into a survey of the British public (N = 2235). We extend previous research into audience costs in three main directions. First, we provide clear and direct evidence that they exist for a second-order democratic power, the United Kingdom. Second, we show that the extent of audience costs varies, and at times substantially, along with features of the crisis situation that have not been …
Valence Politics in Scotland
In this article we use evidence from the Scottish Election Study 2007 to build an explanation for the narrow SNP victory in the Holyrood election. The theoretical focus is on valence models of voting, which are increasingly important in Scotland following dealignment and ideological convergence in the party system, and as Scottish governments flex their executive muscle. Exploring the valence battleground reveals mixed but overall negative evalua…
Moderation and Competence
We combine several strands of research from electoral behavior and party politics to suggest that ideological moderation will boost a party's perceived competence. Less radical parties are seen as readier to compromise, more realistic about what can be achieved, and less prone to simplistic solutions. The results of conjoint experiments with party profiles show that while an ideological leaning carries no cost, any appreciably left‐ or right‐wing…
Gender, Candidate Image and Electoral Preference
Studies show that voters make judgements about politicians—their competence, honesty, warmth and so on—on the basis of physical appearance, and that these judgements can influence voting behaviour. This raises the possibility of two different gender gaps: (i) female and male candidates may be evaluated differently, ultimately affecting their relative electoral performance; and (ii) female and male voters may react differently to candidate images.…
Civilian Casualties and Public Support for Military Action
In contrast to the expansive literature on military casualties and support for war, we know very little about public reactions to foreign civilian casualties. This article, based on representative sample surveys in the United States and Britain, reports four survey experiments weaving information about civilian casualties into vignettes about Western military action. These produce consistent evidence of civilian casualty aversion: where death tol…
The Declining Representativeness of the British Party System, and Why it Matters
In a recent article, Michael Laver has explained ‘Why Vote-Seeking Parties May Make Voters Miserable’. His model shows that, while ideological convergence may boost congruence between governments and the median voter, it can reduce congruence between the party system and the electorate as a whole. Specifically, convergence can increase the mean distance between voters and their nearest party. In this article we show that this captures the reality…
Measuring Issue Salience in British Elections
This article is about responses to the “most important issue” question used in numerous election polls and surveys. Following Wlezien’s work, two interpretations of the question can be sketched: (1) personal (the issue most important to the respondent) and (2) contextual (the issue that respondents perceive as topping the national political agenda). Using British Election Study data from 2005, the author shows that issues prominent in that campai…
Constitution or Competence? the SNP's Re-Election in 2011
The Scottish National Party's outright win in the Scottish Parliament election on 5 May 2011 confounded pre-election polls and commentaries as well as a (broadly) proportional electoral system which was held to minimise the risk of a Nationalist majority moving Scotland to independence. But an extraordinary result in historical context looks much more ordinary when we explore voters' attitudes and choices. According to data from the ESRC-funded S…
Raising the tone? The impact of 'positive' and 'negative' campaigning on voting in the 2007 Scottish Parliament election
Facing the Voters
A growing body of literature has found that photographs of politicians can influence electoral preferences. In this article we assess whether candidates rating higher on electoral attractiveness perform better in a series of hypothetical elections, and whether their advantage is magnified when their appearance is printed not only on campaign materials but also on ballot papers. We find that candidate appearance only had a significant impact on vo…
The unfortunate natural experiment in ballot design
As You Were
The Scottish Parliament election of May 2021 was an ‘as you were’ election. Vote shares were more or less as in the previous election five years earlier. Barely any seats changed hands and the Scottish National Party (SNP) was left tantalisingly short of a majority. One reason for this stasis is that voting in Scottish elections remains largely an expression of support or opposition to independence—and opinions on that issue are deeply entrenched…
Depression and attitudes to change in referendums
Depression is the most common mental illness and its profound impact on cognition and decision‐making has implications for political judgement. However, those implications are unclear in the case of referendums offering a choice between status quo and change. On one hand, one component of depression is the kind of life dissatisfaction associated with voting for change. Yet cognitive models also portray depression sufferers as biased towards the s…
The domestic consequences of international over-cooperation
While questions about the diplomatic effectiveness of hawkish or dovish policies are crucially important, little research has been conducted on the domestic political risks and benefits associated with a chosen policy. This paper provides evidence to suggest why elites avoid the use of inducements and focus on more hawkish policies. Specifically this article focuses on the public opinion risks associated with offering an inducement that does not …
Coalitions of the willing? International backing and British public support for military action
Studies of public support for war highlight the importance of context. Most people do not simply support or oppose the use of force but instead assess its merits depending on various aspects of the situation. One such aspect is the extent of international backing - whether from individual states or supranational organizations - for military action. This backing may be active, notably through the contribution of troops, or more a passive matter of…
Gendered nationalism
Recent major surveys of the Scottish electorate and of Scottish National Party (SNP) members have revealed a distinct gender gap in support for the party. Men are markedly more likely than women to vote for the SNP and they comprise more than two-thirds of its membership. In this article, we use data from those surveys to test various possible explanations for the disproportionately male support for the SNP. While popular accounts have focused on…
Candidate Image and Electoral Preference in Britain
Parties, movements and the 2014 Scottish independence referendum
Some political parties have experienced a resurgence in membership. This article seeks to explain membership surges in the Scottish National Party and Scottish Greens following the 2014 referendum on Scottish independence and an unusually movement-like campaign. Using data from a 2016–17 survey of the parties’ memberships, we examine why large numbers joined these pro-independence parties following defeat in the referendum. We demonstrate that th…
R2P from below
Panel IV
When long-distance relationships don't work out
A Face for Radio? How Viewers and Listeners Reacted Differently to the Third Leaders' Debate in 2010
Neil Kinnock expressed scepticism about Gordon Brown's likely showing in the 2010 election debates, suggesting that the Labour leader had a ‘radio face’. We report an experiment in which students were split randomly between audio and video conditions for the third debate. As Kinnock predicted, Gordon Brown was more often proclaimed the winner by listeners. Nick Clegg, not David Cameron, benefited most from television. These differences were stati…
Tracing Foreign Policy Decisions
Public opinion researchers agree that citizens use simplifying heuristics to reach real, stable preferences. In domestic policy, the focus has been on citizens delegating judgement to opinion leaders, notably political parties. By contrast, citizens have been held to deduce foreign policy opinions from their own values or principles. Yet there is ample scope for delegation in the foreign policy sphere. In this exploratory study I use a ‘process-t…
Transnational business, national friction structures and international exchange
Two consequences of the internationalization of economic activities that has taken place since the early 1960s have been that, within the international trading system, participant states have become more vulnerable and sensitized to the economic conditions obtaining in other countries; and economic actors have, in general, become more transnational and universal in their orientation and more aware of worldwide business possibilities. Consequently…
Panel IV
Of Unsound Mind? Mental Health Social Work and the European Convention on Human Rights
The Human Rights Act 1998 adopted the European Convention on Human Rights as a benchmark by which people's fundamental rights are to be respected and enforced. Before the passing of this Act recourse to the Convention was possible, but remedies were not always effective and influence on legislation was variable. With the passing of the Human Rights Act 1998, legislation itself and all public bodies' activities are potential areas for scrutiny by …
Psephology at Speed
Gender, Candidate Image and Electoral Preference
Studies show that voters make judgements about politicians—their competence, honesty, warmth and so on—on the basis of physical appearance, and that these judgements can influence voting behaviour. This raises the possibility of two different gender gaps: (i) female and male candidates may be evaluated differently, ultimately affecting their relative electoral performance; and (ii) female and male voters may react differently to candidate images.…
Critical Commentary
The implementation of the 2005 Mental Capacity Act in England and Wales heralds a new era for social work practitioners and researchers. Protecting and empowering vulnerable adults—an important element of adult-care social work—relies on a legal framework that attempts to balance adults’ rights with the desire to protect them. The new Act is part of that framework, addressing the fundamental issue of when and how decisions can be made on behalf o…
Candidate Image and Electoral Preference in Britain
The Cycle of Elections
Japanese students' perceptions of international perspectives in social work
English This article reports on a small-scale enquiry into the value for Japanese social work students of learning about international social work. The study highlights a number of practice-related benefits for students, linking these to contemporary Japanese and UK social work education and practice. French Cet article présente le rapport d’une enquête à échelle restreinte sur les valeurs des étudiants Japonais en travail social qui étudient le …
Coping With Coalitions? Scottish Voters Under a Proportional System
It is clear that coalition governments are likely to become a fact of political life in Scotland. In this paper we use data from the 2007 Scottish Election Study to examine how well the Scottish public understands these governing arrangements and whether they are developing stable and consistent attitudes towards coalitions in general. The results suggest that, while currently there is considerable confusion, Scottish voters are slowly learning t…
The Vlaams Blok, its electorate, and the ideological articulation of ‘Europe
In this article we analyse the Vlaams Blok's ideological production on the issue of 'Europe', identifying a rhetorical strategy of subverting the common equivalence between the 'EU' and 'Europe'. We then estimate the receptivity of Flemish voters to this strategy. Our study combines qualitative analysis of Vlaams Blok ideology with regard to 'Europe', the EU and immigration, and quantitative analysis of Flemish public attitudes towards those obje…
The unfortunate natural experiment in ballot design
Rejected ballot papers in the 2007 Scottish Parliament election
Tracing Foreign Policy Decisions
Public opinion researchers agree that citizens use simplifying heuristics to reach real, stable preferences. In domestic policy, the focus has been on citizens delegating judgement to opinion leaders, notably political parties. By contrast, citizens have been held to deduce foreign policy opinions from their own values or principles. Yet there is ample scope for delegation in the foreign policy sphere. In this exploratory study I use a ‘process-t…
Valence Politics in Scotland
In this article we use evidence from the Scottish Election Study 2007 to build an explanation for the narrow SNP victory in the Holyrood election. The theoretical focus is on valence models of voting, which are increasingly important in Scotland following dealignment and ideological convergence in the party system, and as Scottish governments flex their executive muscle. Exploring the valence battleground reveals mixed but overall negative evalua…
Scottish Parliament Elections
Measuring Issue Salience in British Elections
This article is about responses to the “most important issue” question used in numerous election polls and surveys. Following Wlezien’s work, two interpretations of the question can be sketched: (1) personal (the issue most important to the respondent) and (2) contextual (the issue that respondents perceive as topping the national political agenda). Using British Election Study data from 2005, the author shows that issues prominent in that campai…
Linking coalition attitudes and split-ticket voting
A Face for Radio? How Viewers and Listeners Reacted Differently to the Third Leaders' Debate in 2010
Neil Kinnock expressed scepticism about Gordon Brown's likely showing in the 2010 election debates, suggesting that the Labour leader had a ‘radio face’. We report an experiment in which students were split randomly between audio and video conditions for the third debate. As Kinnock predicted, Gordon Brown was more often proclaimed the winner by listeners. Nick Clegg, not David Cameron, benefited most from television. These differences were stati…
My Heart Says One Thing but My Head Says Another? Men, Women, and the Psychology of Partisanship in Britain
The point of departure for this study is the recent work of Burden (2008) on the “gender gap” in partisanship in the United States. He shows that the preponderance of Democratic identification among women is partly a function of the measurement of party identification. When respondents were asked “Do you feel that you are” rather than, more traditionally, “Do you think of yourself as” a Democrat or Republican, the sex gap narrowed to statistical …
Facing the Voters
A growing body of literature has found that photographs of politicians can influence electoral preferences. In this article we assess whether candidates rating higher on electoral attractiveness perform better in a series of hypothetical elections, and whether their advantage is magnified when their appearance is printed not only on campaign materials but also on ballot papers. We find that candidate appearance only had a significant impact on vo…
Credit Where it’s Due? Valence Politics, Attributions of Responsibility, and Multi-Level Elections
Raising the tone? The impact of 'positive' and 'negative' campaigning on voting in the 2007 Scottish Parliament election
Democratic Peace or Clash of Civilizations? Target States and Support for War in Britain and the United States
Research on public support for war shows that citizens are responsive to various aspects of strategic context. Less attention has been paid to the core characteristics of the target state. In this comparative study we report survey experiments manipulating two such characteristics, regime type and dominant faith, to test whether the "democratic peace" and the "clash of civilizations" theses are reflected in U.S. and British public opinion. The ba…
Gendered nationalism
Recent major surveys of the Scottish electorate and of Scottish National Party (SNP) members have revealed a distinct gender gap in support for the party. Men are markedly more likely than women to vote for the SNP and they comprise more than two-thirds of its membership. In this article, we use data from those surveys to test various possible explanations for the disproportionately male support for the SNP. While popular accounts have focused on…
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