Jack Bailey
Datos Biográficos
| ID | 3718007 |
|---|---|
| NOMBRE | Jack Bailey |
| NOMBRES | Jack |
| APELLIDO | Bailey |
| FIRMA | BAILEY J |
| AFILIACIONES | University of Manchester |
| ORCID | 0000-0001-8517-5018 |
| VERIFICADO | Sí |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 13 |
| TOTAL DE CITAS | 55 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 13 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMER AÑO DE PUBLICACIÓN | 1957 |
| AÑO MÁS RECIENTE DE PUBLICACIÓN | 2026 |
| ÍNDICE H | 5 |
Disproportionality often cannot range from zero to one
The Gallagher index is the most popular measure of disproportionality in political science. While many assume that it can range from 0 (perfect proportionality) to 1 (perfect disproportionality), I prove that its maximum value is constrained by the size of the party system. For any election with N V effective vote-winning parties, the Gallagher index cannot exceed ( N V + 1 ) / 2 N V . Given that party-system fragmentation has risen across develo…
The Brexit realignment amid electoral volatility
Brexit accelerated the long-term realignment of how demographic groups vote in Britain. However, Europe is no longer salient to voters, support for the pro-Brexit Conservatives has collapsed, and the 2024 UK General Election was the most volatile on record. So, did the Brexit realignment persist? We address this question by examining the relationship between Brexit preferences and demographic groups with vote choice. We find that the demographic …
Who lacks voter identification? The electoral implications of the Elections Act 2022
The Elections Act 2022 requires voters to present photo identification at general elections in Great Britain and local elections in England. In this article, we use data from the British Election Study Internet Panel to identify who does and does not own the necessary photo documents and how this affected turnout in the 2023 and 2024 local elections, as well as the 2024 General Election. We find that around 5% of the voting-age population lack va…
Do AIs know what the most important issue is? Using language models to code open-text social survey responses at scale
Can artificial intelligence accurately label open-text survey responses? We compare the accuracy of six large language models (LLMs) using a few-shot approach, three supervised learning algorithms (SVM, DistilRoBERTa, and a neural network trained on BERT embeddings), and a second human coder on the task of categorizing “most important issue” responses from the British Election Study Internet Panel into 50 categories. For the scenario where a rese…
Volatility, Realignment, and Electoral Shocks
The 2019 UK General Election had seismic consequences for British politics. After three years of political turmoil following the 2016 referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union (EU), the 2019 election marked a victory for the Leave side of the Brexit debate, putting to rest questions of a second referendum and any chance of Parliament blocking the Withdrawal Bill. The United Kingdom left the EU on January 31, 2020. Although there we…
A new electoral map? Brexit, realignment and the changing geography of party support in England
Critical elections theory has linked fundamental changes in electoral geography to realignment. In the UK there has been much debate over whether Britain is going through a period of realignment and the extent to which this can be attributed to Brexit. In this paper we assess how far the 2016 EU referendum has contributed to creating a new electoral geography. The 2019 UK General Election was characterised by far-reaching changes to geographical …
Political Surveys Bias Self-Reported Economic Perceptions
If voters are to hold governments to account for the state of the economy, they must know how it has changed. Indeed, this is a prerequisite for democratic accountability. Yet the perceptions that voters report often show signs of clear partisan bias. At present, we do not know if this bias is real or instead due to priming in political surveys. To test this, I assign subjects at random to either a political or nonpolitical survey. I then record …
Who Cares If You Vote? Partisan Pressure and Social Norms of Voting
Social norms are important in explaining why people vote, but where do those norms come from and is social pressure motivated by partisanship? In this article, we use political discussion network data to examine the role of party identification in shaping the relationship between injunctive norms, civic duty and voter turnout. More specifically, we examine the extent to which both the application of injunctive norms and their impact on turnout is…
How Do Coronavirus Attitudes Fit into Britain’s Ideological Landscape
Coronavirus upended British politics in 2020 but where does it fit into the ideological map of party competition? Recent British elections have seen a shift from economic left–right competition between the major parties to competition on the cultural (liberal–authoritarian) dimension, most notably in terms of the issues of immigration and membership of the European Union. Using British Election Study data from June 2020, we find that coronavirus …
The fact remains
IEEE Transactions on Education publication information
Commercial Materials Suitable in the Education of Aboriginal Children
It is important to preface this talk with the observation that much of the
The British Co-Operative Movement
After a brief description of the early history of the Co-operative movement, the author turns to the Rochdale Pioneers and the foundations they lay for a co-operative community of a non-Owenite type
The fact remains
Who Cares If You Vote? Partisan Pressure and Social Norms of Voting
Social norms are important in explaining why people vote, but where do those norms come from and is social pressure motivated by partisanship? In this article, we use political discussion network data to examine the role of party identification in shaping the relationship between injunctive norms, civic duty and voter turnout. More specifically, we examine the extent to which both the application of injunctive norms and their impact on turnout is…
How Do Coronavirus Attitudes Fit into Britain’s Ideological Landscape
Coronavirus upended British politics in 2020 but where does it fit into the ideological map of party competition? Recent British elections have seen a shift from economic left–right competition between the major parties to competition on the cultural (liberal–authoritarian) dimension, most notably in terms of the issues of immigration and membership of the European Union. Using British Election Study data from June 2020, we find that coronavirus …
Do AIs know what the most important issue is? Using language models to code open-text social survey responses at scale
Can artificial intelligence accurately label open-text survey responses? We compare the accuracy of six large language models (LLMs) using a few-shot approach, three supervised learning algorithms (SVM, DistilRoBERTa, and a neural network trained on BERT embeddings), and a second human coder on the task of categorizing “most important issue” responses from the British Election Study Internet Panel into 50 categories. For the scenario where a rese…
Political Surveys Bias Self-Reported Economic Perceptions
If voters are to hold governments to account for the state of the economy, they must know how it has changed. Indeed, this is a prerequisite for democratic accountability. Yet the perceptions that voters report often show signs of clear partisan bias. At present, we do not know if this bias is real or instead due to priming in political surveys. To test this, I assign subjects at random to either a political or nonpolitical survey. I then record …
Volatility, Realignment, and Electoral Shocks
The 2019 UK General Election had seismic consequences for British politics. After three years of political turmoil following the 2016 referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union (EU), the 2019 election marked a victory for the Leave side of the Brexit debate, putting to rest questions of a second referendum and any chance of Parliament blocking the Withdrawal Bill. The United Kingdom left the EU on January 31, 2020. Although there we…
Who lacks voter identification? The electoral implications of the Elections Act 2022
The Elections Act 2022 requires voters to present photo identification at general elections in Great Britain and local elections in England. In this article, we use data from the British Election Study Internet Panel to identify who does and does not own the necessary photo documents and how this affected turnout in the 2023 and 2024 local elections, as well as the 2024 General Election. We find that around 5% of the voting-age population lack va…
A new electoral map? Brexit, realignment and the changing geography of party support in England
Critical elections theory has linked fundamental changes in electoral geography to realignment. In the UK there has been much debate over whether Britain is going through a period of realignment and the extent to which this can be attributed to Brexit. In this paper we assess how far the 2016 EU referendum has contributed to creating a new electoral geography. The 2019 UK General Election was characterised by far-reaching changes to geographical …
The British Co-Operative Movement
After a brief description of the early history of the Co-operative movement, the author turns to the Rochdale Pioneers and the foundations they lay for a co-operative community of a non-Owenite type
The British Co-Operative Movement
After a brief description of the early history of the Co-operative movement, the author turns to the Rochdale Pioneers and the foundations they lay for a co-operative community of a non-Owenite type
Commercial Materials Suitable in the Education of Aboriginal Children
It is important to preface this talk with the observation that much of the
IEEE Transactions on Education publication information
The fact remains
How Do Coronavirus Attitudes Fit into Britain’s Ideological Landscape
Coronavirus upended British politics in 2020 but where does it fit into the ideological map of party competition? Recent British elections have seen a shift from economic left–right competition between the major parties to competition on the cultural (liberal–authoritarian) dimension, most notably in terms of the issues of immigration and membership of the European Union. Using British Election Study data from June 2020, we find that coronavirus …
Political Surveys Bias Self-Reported Economic Perceptions
If voters are to hold governments to account for the state of the economy, they must know how it has changed. Indeed, this is a prerequisite for democratic accountability. Yet the perceptions that voters report often show signs of clear partisan bias. At present, we do not know if this bias is real or instead due to priming in political surveys. To test this, I assign subjects at random to either a political or nonpolitical survey. I then record …
Who Cares If You Vote? Partisan Pressure and Social Norms of Voting
Social norms are important in explaining why people vote, but where do those norms come from and is social pressure motivated by partisanship? In this article, we use political discussion network data to examine the role of party identification in shaping the relationship between injunctive norms, civic duty and voter turnout. More specifically, we examine the extent to which both the application of injunctive norms and their impact on turnout is…
Volatility, Realignment, and Electoral Shocks
The 2019 UK General Election had seismic consequences for British politics. After three years of political turmoil following the 2016 referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union (EU), the 2019 election marked a victory for the Leave side of the Brexit debate, putting to rest questions of a second referendum and any chance of Parliament blocking the Withdrawal Bill. The United Kingdom left the EU on January 31, 2020. Although there we…
A new electoral map? Brexit, realignment and the changing geography of party support in England
Critical elections theory has linked fundamental changes in electoral geography to realignment. In the UK there has been much debate over whether Britain is going through a period of realignment and the extent to which this can be attributed to Brexit. In this paper we assess how far the 2016 EU referendum has contributed to creating a new electoral geography. The 2019 UK General Election was characterised by far-reaching changes to geographical …
Do AIs know what the most important issue is? Using language models to code open-text social survey responses at scale
Can artificial intelligence accurately label open-text survey responses? We compare the accuracy of six large language models (LLMs) using a few-shot approach, three supervised learning algorithms (SVM, DistilRoBERTa, and a neural network trained on BERT embeddings), and a second human coder on the task of categorizing “most important issue” responses from the British Election Study Internet Panel into 50 categories. For the scenario where a rese…
The Brexit realignment amid electoral volatility
Brexit accelerated the long-term realignment of how demographic groups vote in Britain. However, Europe is no longer salient to voters, support for the pro-Brexit Conservatives has collapsed, and the 2024 UK General Election was the most volatile on record. So, did the Brexit realignment persist? We address this question by examining the relationship between Brexit preferences and demographic groups with vote choice. We find that the demographic …
Who lacks voter identification? The electoral implications of the Elections Act 2022
The Elections Act 2022 requires voters to present photo identification at general elections in Great Britain and local elections in England. In this article, we use data from the British Election Study Internet Panel to identify who does and does not own the necessary photo documents and how this affected turnout in the 2023 and 2024 local elections, as well as the 2024 General Election. We find that around 5% of the voting-age population lack va…
Disproportionality often cannot range from zero to one
The Gallagher index is the most popular measure of disproportionality in political science. While many assume that it can range from 0 (perfect proportionality) to 1 (perfect disproportionality), I prove that its maximum value is constrained by the size of the party system. For any election with N V effective vote-winning parties, the Gallagher index cannot exceed ( N V + 1 ) / 2 N V . Given that party-system fragmentation has risen across develo…
Political science (9 obras) · Electoral Systems and Political Participation (7 obras) · Political economy (7 obras) · Economics (6 obras) · Law (6 obras) · Politics (6 obras) · Populism, Right-Wing Movements (5 obras) · Law (4 obras) · Psychology (4 obras) · Sociology (4 obras)