Jason Lennard
Datos Biográficos
| ID | 3953108 |
|---|---|
| NOMBRE | Jason Lennard |
| NOMBRES | Jason |
| APELLIDO | Lennard |
| FIRMA | LENNARD J |
| AFILIACIONES | London School of Economics and Political Science |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-6700-8969 |
| VERIFICADO | Sí |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 11 |
| TOTAL DE CITAS | 26 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 11 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMER AÑO DE PUBLICACIÓN | 2018 |
| AÑO MÁS RECIENTE DE PUBLICACIÓN | 2026 |
| ÍNDICE H | 4 |
Banks and the economy
This paper studies the macroeconomic impact of the Irish bank strike of 1966, which led to the closure of the major commercial banks for 3 months. We collect a variety of new evidence, such as high‐frequency macro data, economic forecasts, micro data and narrative sources. Our findings suggest that the bank strike was associated with a shortfall in economic activity that punctuated a decade of robust growth. The qualitative evidence depicts the s…
The Aftermath of Sovereign Debt Crises
This paper investigates the causal effects of sovereign debt crises in a sample of 50 defaulting economies between 1870 and 2010. As default is potentially endogenous, we use the narrative approach to identify plausibly exogenous episodes. We find economically and statistically significant costs of up to 3.2 percent of GDP before recovering to the pre-crisis level after five years. The average aftermath, however, conceals a large heterogeneity by…
Devaluation, Exports, and Recovery from the Great Depression
This paper evaluates how a major policy shift—the suspension of the gold standard in September 1931—affected employment outcomes in interwar Britain. We use a new high-frequency industry-level dataset and difference-in-differences techniques to isolate the impact of devaluation on exporters. At the micro level, the break from gold reduced the unemployment rate by 2.7 percentage points for export-intensive industries relative to non-export industr…
European business cycles and economic growth, 1300–2000
The modern business cycle features long expansions combined with short recessions, and is thus related to the emergence of sustained economic growth. It also features significant international co-movement, and is therefore associated with growing market integration and globalisation. When did these patterns first appear? This paper explores the changing nature of the business cycle using historical national accounts for nine European economies be…
Dating business cycles in the United Kingdom, 1700-2010
This paper constructs a new chronology of the business cycle in the United Kingdom from 1700 on an annual basis and from 1920 on a quarterly basis to 2010. The new chronology points to several observations about the business cycle. First, the cycle has significantly increased in duration and amplitude over time. Second, contractions have become less frequent but are as persistent and costly as at other times in history. Third, the typical recessi…
Measuring inflation expectations in interwar Britain
What caused the recovery from the British Great Depression? A leading explanation - the 'expectations channel' - suggests that a shift in expected inflation lowered real interest rates and stimulated consumption and investment. However, few studies have measured, or tested the economic consequences of, inflation expectations. In this paper, we collect high-frequency information from primary and secondary sources to measure expected inflation in t…
An annual index of Irish industrial production, 1800–1913
We assemble the Irish industrial data currently available for the years 1800–1921, the period during which the entire island was in a political union with Great Britain, and construct an annual index of Irish industrial output for 1800–1913. We also construct a new industrial price index. Irish industrial output grew by an average of 1.3 per cent per annum between 1800 and the outbreak of the First World War. Industrial growth was slightly slower…
The macroeconomic effects of banking crises
This paper analyses the macroeconomic effects of banking crises in the United Kingdom between 1750 and 1938. We construct a new annual chronology of banking crises, which we define as episodes of runs and panics combined with significant, geographically-dispersed failures and suspensions. Using a vector autoregression, we find that banking crises are associated with short, sharp and significant drops in economic growth. Using the narrative record…
Uncertainty and the Great Slump
This article investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the British interwar economy. The first type of evidence examined is qualitative. The historical record shows that contemporaries regularly reported the incidence and consequences of major uncertainty shocks. The second type of evidence analysed is quantitative. Based on a new index of economic policy uncertainty constructed from newspapers and vector autoregressions, the resu…
Did monetary policy matter? Narrative evidence from the classical gold standard
Monetary aggregates for Ireland, 1840-1921
This article constructs new monetary aggregates for Ireland between 1840 and 1921. Three major findings are gleaned from the data. First, we find that the degree of monetization on the eve of the Famine was comparatively high. Second, we find an unprecedented monetary contraction during the Famine. Third, in contrast to previous research, we find that the failure of the Munster Bank in 1885 had ramifications for confidence in, and the stability o…
The macroeconomic effects of banking crises
This paper analyses the macroeconomic effects of banking crises in the United Kingdom between 1750 and 1938. We construct a new annual chronology of banking crises, which we define as episodes of runs and panics combined with significant, geographically-dispersed failures and suspensions. Using a vector autoregression, we find that banking crises are associated with short, sharp and significant drops in economic growth. Using the narrative record…
Did monetary policy matter? Narrative evidence from the classical gold standard
Uncertainty and the Great Slump
This article investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the British interwar economy. The first type of evidence examined is qualitative. The historical record shows that contemporaries regularly reported the incidence and consequences of major uncertainty shocks. The second type of evidence analysed is quantitative. Based on a new index of economic policy uncertainty constructed from newspapers and vector autoregressions, the resu…
Monetary aggregates for Ireland, 1840-1921
This article constructs new monetary aggregates for Ireland between 1840 and 1921. Three major findings are gleaned from the data. First, we find that the degree of monetization on the eve of the Famine was comparatively high. Second, we find an unprecedented monetary contraction during the Famine. Third, in contrast to previous research, we find that the failure of the Munster Bank in 1885 had ramifications for confidence in, and the stability o…
Dating business cycles in the United Kingdom, 1700-2010
This paper constructs a new chronology of the business cycle in the United Kingdom from 1700 on an annual basis and from 1920 on a quarterly basis to 2010. The new chronology points to several observations about the business cycle. First, the cycle has significantly increased in duration and amplitude over time. Second, contractions have become less frequent but are as persistent and costly as at other times in history. Third, the typical recessi…
European business cycles and economic growth, 1300–2000
The modern business cycle features long expansions combined with short recessions, and is thus related to the emergence of sustained economic growth. It also features significant international co-movement, and is therefore associated with growing market integration and globalisation. When did these patterns first appear? This paper explores the changing nature of the business cycle using historical national accounts for nine European economies be…
Measuring inflation expectations in interwar Britain
What caused the recovery from the British Great Depression? A leading explanation - the 'expectations channel' - suggests that a shift in expected inflation lowered real interest rates and stimulated consumption and investment. However, few studies have measured, or tested the economic consequences of, inflation expectations. In this paper, we collect high-frequency information from primary and secondary sources to measure expected inflation in t…
Did monetary policy matter? Narrative evidence from the classical gold standard
Monetary aggregates for Ireland, 1840-1921
This article constructs new monetary aggregates for Ireland between 1840 and 1921. Three major findings are gleaned from the data. First, we find that the degree of monetization on the eve of the Famine was comparatively high. Second, we find an unprecedented monetary contraction during the Famine. Third, in contrast to previous research, we find that the failure of the Munster Bank in 1885 had ramifications for confidence in, and the stability o…
Uncertainty and the Great Slump
This article investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the British interwar economy. The first type of evidence examined is qualitative. The historical record shows that contemporaries regularly reported the incidence and consequences of major uncertainty shocks. The second type of evidence analysed is quantitative. Based on a new index of economic policy uncertainty constructed from newspapers and vector autoregressions, the resu…
The macroeconomic effects of banking crises
This paper analyses the macroeconomic effects of banking crises in the United Kingdom between 1750 and 1938. We construct a new annual chronology of banking crises, which we define as episodes of runs and panics combined with significant, geographically-dispersed failures and suspensions. Using a vector autoregression, we find that banking crises are associated with short, sharp and significant drops in economic growth. Using the narrative record…
An annual index of Irish industrial production, 1800–1913
We assemble the Irish industrial data currently available for the years 1800–1921, the period during which the entire island was in a political union with Great Britain, and construct an annual index of Irish industrial output for 1800–1913. We also construct a new industrial price index. Irish industrial output grew by an average of 1.3 per cent per annum between 1800 and the outbreak of the First World War. Industrial growth was slightly slower…
Dating business cycles in the United Kingdom, 1700-2010
This paper constructs a new chronology of the business cycle in the United Kingdom from 1700 on an annual basis and from 1920 on a quarterly basis to 2010. The new chronology points to several observations about the business cycle. First, the cycle has significantly increased in duration and amplitude over time. Second, contractions have become less frequent but are as persistent and costly as at other times in history. Third, the typical recessi…
Measuring inflation expectations in interwar Britain
What caused the recovery from the British Great Depression? A leading explanation - the 'expectations channel' - suggests that a shift in expected inflation lowered real interest rates and stimulated consumption and investment. However, few studies have measured, or tested the economic consequences of, inflation expectations. In this paper, we collect high-frequency information from primary and secondary sources to measure expected inflation in t…
European business cycles and economic growth, 1300–2000
The modern business cycle features long expansions combined with short recessions, and is thus related to the emergence of sustained economic growth. It also features significant international co-movement, and is therefore associated with growing market integration and globalisation. When did these patterns first appear? This paper explores the changing nature of the business cycle using historical national accounts for nine European economies be…
Banks and the economy
This paper studies the macroeconomic impact of the Irish bank strike of 1966, which led to the closure of the major commercial banks for 3 months. We collect a variety of new evidence, such as high‐frequency macro data, economic forecasts, micro data and narrative sources. Our findings suggest that the bank strike was associated with a shortfall in economic activity that punctuated a decade of robust growth. The qualitative evidence depicts the s…
The Aftermath of Sovereign Debt Crises
This paper investigates the causal effects of sovereign debt crises in a sample of 50 defaulting economies between 1870 and 2010. As default is potentially endogenous, we use the narrative approach to identify plausibly exogenous episodes. We find economically and statistically significant costs of up to 3.2 percent of GDP before recovering to the pre-crisis level after five years. The average aftermath, however, conceals a large heterogeneity by…
Devaluation, Exports, and Recovery from the Great Depression
This paper evaluates how a major policy shift—the suspension of the gold standard in September 1931—affected employment outcomes in interwar Britain. We use a new high-frequency industry-level dataset and difference-in-differences techniques to isolate the impact of devaluation on exporters. At the micro level, the break from gold reduced the unemployment rate by 2.7 percentage points for export-intensive industries relative to non-export industr…
Economics (9 obras) · Macroeconomics (7 obras) · Monetary economics (6 obras) · Keynesian economics (5 obras) · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact (5 obras) · Global Financial Crisis and Policies (4 obras) · Historical Economic and Social Studies (4 obras) · Archaeology (3 obras) · Business cycle (3 obras) · Econometrics (3 obras)