Lauren Sukin
Datos Biográficos
| ID | 4134796 |
|---|---|
| NOMBRE | Lauren Sukin |
| NOMBRES | Lauren |
| APELLIDO | Sukin |
| FIRMA | SUKIN L |
| AFILIACIONES | London School of Economics and Political Science |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-5775-8790 |
| VERIFICADO | Sí |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 16 |
| TOTAL DE CITAS | 98 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 16 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMER AÑO DE PUBLICACIÓN | 2019 |
| AÑO MÁS RECIENTE DE PUBLICACIÓN | 2026 |
| ÍNDICE H | 5 |
Implausible Deniability and Escalation in the Gray Zone
Divisions at Home, Broken Promises Abroad? How Domestic Politics Shapes the United States’ Nuclear Credibility
How will the intensifying political challenges in the United States affect Washington’s nuclear credibility? Although the implications of US domestic politics often extend past American borders, few studies examine how foreign publics assess the US political environment. In the nuclear security domain, where the United States must maintain challenging extended deterrence commitments, domestic political conditions have especially destabilizing pot…
Rethinking the Deterrence-Disarmament Dichotomy
Backers of nuclear deterrence are thought to use strategic logic, while nuclear disarmament advocates are believed to embrace moral reasoning. Yet policy makers and diverse publics may hold both—ostensibly contradictory—preferences. Recent studies find that publics in Western democratic countries support the nuclear strikes underpinning long-standing conceptions of deterrence policy. But other scholarship indicates that these very same publics wa…
Atomic responsiveness
A recent wave of survey experiments has advanced scholarly understanding of public attitudes towards the use of nuclear weapons. In this article, we address the central question: can public opinion influence decision-makers’ views on nuclear weapon use? We bridge this critical gap in the literature with a survey experiment conducted on samples of UK parliamentarians and US and UK government employees in official policy roles. We varied public sup…
Allies and partners
Competition between China and the United States spurs renewed emphasis on security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific. However, this development in security collaboration unfolds differently from the past. While Washington's Cold War alliances endure, these are supplemented by less formal arrangements with new regional partners. This reflects a shift from the codified obligations of treaty alliances in favor of flexible forms of security partnership…
Winning Hearts and Minds? How the United States Reassured During the Russo-Ukrainian War
Decades of scholarship hold that great powers shore up global confidence during crises with strong demonstrations of resolve. A much smaller literature critiques these assumptions, suggesting that restraint may strengthen confidence. When and why do restraint or resolve reassure, and for whom? In light of Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, we appraise early U.S. attempts to reassure allies and partners using public opinion surveys in 2…
The Elements of Deterrence
Credibility in Crises
s How do citizens of US allies assess different reassurance strategies? This article investigates the effects of US reassurance policies on public opinion in allied states. We design and conduct a survey experiment in five Central–Eastern European states—Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Romania—in March 2022. Set against the backdrop of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, this experiment asked respondents to evaluate four types of reassurance st…
All Options on the Table
Rachel Elizabeth Whitlark. Ithaca, NY, Cornell University Press, 2021. 276 pp. $54.95
Responding to Uncertainty
This paper investigates the escalation dynamics of cyber attacks. Two main theories have been advanced. First, “means-based” theory argues attack type determines response; cyber attacks are less likely to escalate than kinetic attacks. Second, “effects-based” theory argues an attack’s material consequences determine the likelihood of retaliation. We advance a third perspective, arguing that the covertness of an attack has the largest effect on it…
The Disadvantage of Nuclear Superiority
When crises occur between nuclear-armed states, do relative nuclear capabilities affect the outcome? The literature offers no consensus about nuclear superiority’s effect on crisis victory, but this article demonstrates that this effect depends on the size of the disparity between states’ nuclear arsenals. Although superiority is correlated with victory in crises between states with similarly sized nuclear arsenals, superiority provides no advant…
Why “cheap” threats are meaningful
Threatening propaganda—particularly when extreme and frequent—is often considered “cheap talk.” However, this article argues systematic and comprehensive analysis of such threats can still lend valuable insights. In particular, the aggregate content of threats reveals information about the threat perceptions of the messenger, while the frequency of threats provides information about the messenger’s resolve. To test this theory, I analyze a compre…
Reducing Nuclear Salience
One of the Biden administration’s top foreign policy challenges is to reinvigorate US alliances. Regional threats in Eastern Europe and Northeast Asia have become more complex in recent years, just
Joint Military Exercises and Crisis Dynamics on the Korean Peninsula
A number of proposals for reducing tensions with North Korea have discussed alterations to the program of joint military exercises (JMEs) that South Korea holds. North Korea has also repeatedly called for a reduction or secession of JMEs. Would limiting or halting JMEs be a useful concession for securing a reduction of tensions on the peninsula? We argue that JMEs do not deter North Korea but, instead, provoke provocative rhetoric and actions, de…
Credible Nuclear Security Commitments Can Backfire
How does the alliance between a client state and its nuclear ally influence support for proliferation in the client? Conventional wisdom suggests that when nuclear security guarantees are not credible, support for proliferation will be high, since a domestic nuclear capability offers an alternative source of deterrence. I introduce a new theory, which posits that highly credible security guarantees can backfire by causing some individuals to fear…
Experimental evidence on determinants of support for nuclear use in response to threats of nuclear retaliation
Credible Nuclear Security Commitments Can Backfire
How does the alliance between a client state and its nuclear ally influence support for proliferation in the client? Conventional wisdom suggests that when nuclear security guarantees are not credible, support for proliferation will be high, since a domestic nuclear capability offers an alternative source of deterrence. I introduce a new theory, which posits that highly credible security guarantees can backfire by causing some individuals to fear…
Joint Military Exercises and Crisis Dynamics on the Korean Peninsula
A number of proposals for reducing tensions with North Korea have discussed alterations to the program of joint military exercises (JMEs) that South Korea holds. North Korea has also repeatedly called for a reduction or secession of JMEs. Would limiting or halting JMEs be a useful concession for securing a reduction of tensions on the peninsula? We argue that JMEs do not deter North Korea but, instead, provoke provocative rhetoric and actions, de…
Experimental evidence on determinants of support for nuclear use in response to threats of nuclear retaliation
Responding to Uncertainty
This paper investigates the escalation dynamics of cyber attacks. Two main theories have been advanced. First, “means-based” theory argues attack type determines response; cyber attacks are less likely to escalate than kinetic attacks. Second, “effects-based” theory argues an attack’s material consequences determine the likelihood of retaliation. We advance a third perspective, arguing that the covertness of an attack has the largest effect on it…
Why “cheap” threats are meaningful
Threatening propaganda—particularly when extreme and frequent—is often considered “cheap talk.” However, this article argues systematic and comprehensive analysis of such threats can still lend valuable insights. In particular, the aggregate content of threats reveals information about the threat perceptions of the messenger, while the frequency of threats provides information about the messenger’s resolve. To test this theory, I analyze a compre…
Credibility in Crises
s How do citizens of US allies assess different reassurance strategies? This article investigates the effects of US reassurance policies on public opinion in allied states. We design and conduct a survey experiment in five Central–Eastern European states—Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Romania—in March 2022. Set against the backdrop of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, this experiment asked respondents to evaluate four types of reassurance st…
The Disadvantage of Nuclear Superiority
When crises occur between nuclear-armed states, do relative nuclear capabilities affect the outcome? The literature offers no consensus about nuclear superiority’s effect on crisis victory, but this article demonstrates that this effect depends on the size of the disparity between states’ nuclear arsenals. Although superiority is correlated with victory in crises between states with similarly sized nuclear arsenals, superiority provides no advant…
Atomic responsiveness
A recent wave of survey experiments has advanced scholarly understanding of public attitudes towards the use of nuclear weapons. In this article, we address the central question: can public opinion influence decision-makers’ views on nuclear weapon use? We bridge this critical gap in the literature with a survey experiment conducted on samples of UK parliamentarians and US and UK government employees in official policy roles. We varied public sup…
The Elements of Deterrence
Reducing Nuclear Salience
One of the Biden administration’s top foreign policy challenges is to reinvigorate US alliances. Regional threats in Eastern Europe and Northeast Asia have become more complex in recent years, just
Experimental evidence on determinants of support for nuclear use in response to threats of nuclear retaliation
Credible Nuclear Security Commitments Can Backfire
How does the alliance between a client state and its nuclear ally influence support for proliferation in the client? Conventional wisdom suggests that when nuclear security guarantees are not credible, support for proliferation will be high, since a domestic nuclear capability offers an alternative source of deterrence. I introduce a new theory, which posits that highly credible security guarantees can backfire by causing some individuals to fear…
Reducing Nuclear Salience
One of the Biden administration’s top foreign policy challenges is to reinvigorate US alliances. Regional threats in Eastern Europe and Northeast Asia have become more complex in recent years, just
Joint Military Exercises and Crisis Dynamics on the Korean Peninsula
A number of proposals for reducing tensions with North Korea have discussed alterations to the program of joint military exercises (JMEs) that South Korea holds. North Korea has also repeatedly called for a reduction or secession of JMEs. Would limiting or halting JMEs be a useful concession for securing a reduction of tensions on the peninsula? We argue that JMEs do not deter North Korea but, instead, provoke provocative rhetoric and actions, de…
Why “cheap” threats are meaningful
Threatening propaganda—particularly when extreme and frequent—is often considered “cheap talk.” However, this article argues systematic and comprehensive analysis of such threats can still lend valuable insights. In particular, the aggregate content of threats reveals information about the threat perceptions of the messenger, while the frequency of threats provides information about the messenger’s resolve. To test this theory, I analyze a compre…
All Options on the Table
Rachel Elizabeth Whitlark. Ithaca, NY, Cornell University Press, 2021. 276 pp. $54.95
Responding to Uncertainty
This paper investigates the escalation dynamics of cyber attacks. Two main theories have been advanced. First, “means-based” theory argues attack type determines response; cyber attacks are less likely to escalate than kinetic attacks. Second, “effects-based” theory argues an attack’s material consequences determine the likelihood of retaliation. We advance a third perspective, arguing that the covertness of an attack has the largest effect on it…
The Disadvantage of Nuclear Superiority
When crises occur between nuclear-armed states, do relative nuclear capabilities affect the outcome? The literature offers no consensus about nuclear superiority’s effect on crisis victory, but this article demonstrates that this effect depends on the size of the disparity between states’ nuclear arsenals. Although superiority is correlated with victory in crises between states with similarly sized nuclear arsenals, superiority provides no advant…
Credibility in Crises
s How do citizens of US allies assess different reassurance strategies? This article investigates the effects of US reassurance policies on public opinion in allied states. We design and conduct a survey experiment in five Central–Eastern European states—Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Romania—in March 2022. Set against the backdrop of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, this experiment asked respondents to evaluate four types of reassurance st…
Atomic responsiveness
A recent wave of survey experiments has advanced scholarly understanding of public attitudes towards the use of nuclear weapons. In this article, we address the central question: can public opinion influence decision-makers’ views on nuclear weapon use? We bridge this critical gap in the literature with a survey experiment conducted on samples of UK parliamentarians and US and UK government employees in official policy roles. We varied public sup…
Allies and partners
Competition between China and the United States spurs renewed emphasis on security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific. However, this development in security collaboration unfolds differently from the past. While Washington's Cold War alliances endure, these are supplemented by less formal arrangements with new regional partners. This reflects a shift from the codified obligations of treaty alliances in favor of flexible forms of security partnership…
Winning Hearts and Minds? How the United States Reassured During the Russo-Ukrainian War
Decades of scholarship hold that great powers shore up global confidence during crises with strong demonstrations of resolve. A much smaller literature critiques these assumptions, suggesting that restraint may strengthen confidence. When and why do restraint or resolve reassure, and for whom? In light of Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, we appraise early U.S. attempts to reassure allies and partners using public opinion surveys in 2…
The Elements of Deterrence
Implausible Deniability and Escalation in the Gray Zone
Divisions at Home, Broken Promises Abroad? How Domestic Politics Shapes the United States’ Nuclear Credibility
How will the intensifying political challenges in the United States affect Washington’s nuclear credibility? Although the implications of US domestic politics often extend past American borders, few studies examine how foreign publics assess the US political environment. In the nuclear security domain, where the United States must maintain challenging extended deterrence commitments, domestic political conditions have especially destabilizing pot…
Rethinking the Deterrence-Disarmament Dichotomy
Backers of nuclear deterrence are thought to use strategic logic, while nuclear disarmament advocates are believed to embrace moral reasoning. Yet policy makers and diverse publics may hold both—ostensibly contradictory—preferences. Recent studies find that publics in Western democratic countries support the nuclear strikes underpinning long-standing conceptions of deterrence policy. But other scholarship indicates that these very same publics wa…
Nuclear Issues and Defense (10 obras) · Political science (10 obras) · International Relations and Foreign Policy (9 obras) · Law (8 obras) · Law (8 obras) · Economics (6 obras) · Nuclear weapon (6 obras) · Deterrence theory (5 obras) · Political economy (5 obras) · Politics (5 obras)