Christina Romer
Datos Biográficos
| ID | 5847285 |
|---|---|
| NOMBRE | Christina Romer |
| NOMBRES | Christina |
| APELLIDO | Romer |
| FIRMA | ROMER C |
| AFILIACIONES | University of California, Berkeley |
| ORCID | 0000-0001-6615-5249 |
| VERIFICADO | Sí |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 19 |
| TOTAL DE CITAS | 132 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 19 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMER AÑO DE PUBLICACIÓN | 1986 |
| AÑO MÁS RECIENTE DE PUBLICACIÓN | 2022 |
| ÍNDICE H | 6 |
A Social Insurance Perspective on Pandemic Fiscal Policy
This paper considers fiscal policy during the pandemic through the lens of optimal social insurance. We develop a simple framework to analyze how government taxes and transfers could mimic the insurance that people would like to have had against pandemic income losses. Permutations of the framework provide insight into how unemployment insurance should be structured, when and how much hazard pay is called for, and whether fiscal policy should aim…
Debt and Entanglements Between the Wars
The seven chapters in this volume tell stories about correlated macroeconomic and political events that occurred in six countries and four Dominions of the British Commonwealth between 1914 and 1940. By a story, I mean a collection of observations ordered in time together with causal interpretations that come from projecting the observations onto a theory. Correlations among our stories arise partly from the international aspects of the events be…
Phillips Lecture – Why Some Times Are Different
Analysis based on a new measure of financial distress for 24 advanced economies in the postwar period shows substantial variation in the aftermath of financial crises. This paper examines the role that macroeconomic policy plays in explaining this variation. We find that the degree of monetary and fiscal policy space prior to financial distress—that is, whether the policy interest rate is above the zero lower bound and whether the debt‐to‐ GDP ra…
The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes
This paper investigates the impact of tax changes on economic activity. We use the narrative record, such as presidential speeches and Congressional reports, to identify the size, timing, and principal motivation for all major postwar tax policy actions. This analysis allows us to separate legislated changes into those taken for reasons related to prospective economic conditions and those taken for more exogenous reasons. The behavior of output f…
Was the Federal Reserve Constrained by the Gold Standard During the Great Depression? Evidence from the 1932 Open Market Purchase Program
Could the Federal Reserve have reversed the decline in the money supply during the Great Depression without causing a loss of confidence in the U.S. commitment to the gold standard? This article uses the $1 billion expansionary open market operation in 1932 as a crucial case study. Using forward exchange rates and interest rate differentials to measure devaluation expectations, we find virtually no evidence that the large monetary expansion led i…
A New Measure of Monetary Shocks
This paper develops a measure of U.S. monetary policy shocks for the period 1969–1996 that is relatively free of endogenous and anticipatory movements. Quantitative and narrative records are used to infer the Federal Reserve's intentions for the federal funds rate around FOMC meetings. This series is regressed on the Federal Reserve's internal forecasts to derive a measure free of systematic responses to information about future developments. Est…
Choosing the Federal Reserve Chair
This paper demonstrates that the key determinants of policy success have been policymakers' views about how the economy works and what monetary policy can accomplish. In the first major section of the paper, the authors analyze the narrative record of the Federal Reserve to discover what policymakers believed and why they chose the policies they did. The authors find that the well-tempered monetary policies of the 1950s and of the 1980s and 1990s…
Discussion of Hacker, Ward, and White
My assigned task is to discuss the three fine dissertations chosen as finalists for the Allan Nevins Prize. But, I want to start by mentioning the eight other dissertations that I read as part of the competition. I found it truly inspiring that so much good work is being done in American economic history. All 11 dissertations submitted were truly first rate and all of them deserved a chance to be recognized. So, to all who submitted, I want to sa…
Changes in Business Cycles
This paper shows that the volatility of annual real macroeconomic indicators for the United States and the average severity of recessions have declined only slightly between the pre-World War I and post-World War II eras. Recessions have, however, become somewhat less frequent and more uniform. It argues that the advent of macroeconomic policy after World War II can account for both the observed continuity and change. Countercyclical monetary pol…
Why Did Prices Rise in the 1930s
Prices rose in most years between 1933 and 1941 even though output was substantially below trend. This inflation cannot be explained as simply the effect of devaluation and changes in expectations. Rather, because prewar price changes depended significantly on the growth rate of real output, the extraordinarily rapid growth after 1933 was an important force leading to inflation. At the same time, the NIRA, by encouraging minimum wages and collusi…
Activities and Appointments
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. As you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button
Remeasuring Business Cycles
This article evaluates the consistency of the NBER business cycle reference dates. It finds that the early reference dates are derived from detrended data, whereas the dates after 1927 are derived from data in levels. To evaluate the importance of this and other changes in technique, I derive a simple algorithm that matches the postwar NBER peaks and troughs closely. When this algorithm is applied to data for 1884 to 1940, the new prewar dates di…
The Nation in Depression
This paper examines the American Great Depression and the ways in which the U.S. experience during the 1930s resembled that of other countries in some regards and fundamentally differed in other aspects. I also evaluate the evidence on the causes of the Great Depression in the United States and the sources of the eventual recovery. The picture painted of the American Great Depression is one that stresses the importance of national, rather than in…
What Ended the Great Depression
This paper examines the role of aggregate-demand stimulus in ending the Great Depression. Plausible estimates of the effects of fiscal and monetary changes indicate that nearly all the observed recovery of the U.S. economy prior to 1942 was due to monetary expansion. A huge gold inflow in the mid- and late 1930s swelled the money stock and stimulated the economy by lowering real interest rates and encouraging investment spending and purchases of …
A New Monthly Index of Industrial Production, 1884–1940
The article derives a new monthly index of industrial production for the United States for 1884 to 1940. This index improves upon existing measures of industrial production by excluding indirect proxies for industrial activity, using only component series that are consistent over time, and not making ad hoc adjustments to the data. Analysis of the new index shows that it has more within-year volatility than conventional indexes, has relatively un…
The Prewar Business Cycle Reconsidered
Traditional estimates of prewar gross national product (GNP) exaggerate the size of cycles because they are based on the assumption that GNP moves approximately one for one with commodity output valued in producer prices. This paper derives new estimates of GNP for 1869-1908 using an estimate of the actual relationship between GNP and commodity output. This estimated relationship is allowed to be time-varying and is derived from a regression cove…
Spurious Volatility in Historical Unemployment Data
This paper shows that the stabilization of the unemployment rate between the pre-1930 and post-1948 eras is an artifact of improvements in data collection procedures. Prewar methods are used to construct postwar unemployment data that are consistent with the historical data. The constructed postwar series is nearly as volatile as the pre-1930 unemployment data. The constructed postwar data are systematically more volatile than the actual postwar …
New Estimates of Prewar Gross National Product and Unemployment
The paper examines in detail revised estimates of unemployment and gross national product for the United States before 1929. It first discusses the nature of the revisions to each series and contrasts the assumptions underlying the new data with those underlying the Kuznets GNP series and the Lebergott unemployment rate series. It then examines the business cycle properties of the new prewar estimates. In analyzes the volatility and serial correl…
The Instability of the Prewar Economy Reconsidered
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
The Prewar Business Cycle Reconsidered
Traditional estimates of prewar gross national product (GNP) exaggerate the size of cycles because they are based on the assumption that GNP moves approximately one for one with commodity output valued in producer prices. This paper derives new estimates of GNP for 1869-1908 using an estimate of the actual relationship between GNP and commodity output. This estimated relationship is allowed to be time-varying and is derived from a regression cove…
Spurious Volatility in Historical Unemployment Data
This paper shows that the stabilization of the unemployment rate between the pre-1930 and post-1948 eras is an artifact of improvements in data collection procedures. Prewar methods are used to construct postwar unemployment data that are consistent with the historical data. The constructed postwar series is nearly as volatile as the pre-1930 unemployment data. The constructed postwar data are systematically more volatile than the actual postwar …
What Ended the Great Depression
This paper examines the role of aggregate-demand stimulus in ending the Great Depression. Plausible estimates of the effects of fiscal and monetary changes indicate that nearly all the observed recovery of the U.S. economy prior to 1942 was due to monetary expansion. A huge gold inflow in the mid- and late 1930s swelled the money stock and stimulated the economy by lowering real interest rates and encouraging investment spending and purchases of …
A New Monthly Index of Industrial Production, 1884–1940
The article derives a new monthly index of industrial production for the United States for 1884 to 1940. This index improves upon existing measures of industrial production by excluding indirect proxies for industrial activity, using only component series that are consistent over time, and not making ad hoc adjustments to the data. Analysis of the new index shows that it has more within-year volatility than conventional indexes, has relatively un…
Remeasuring Business Cycles
This article evaluates the consistency of the NBER business cycle reference dates. It finds that the early reference dates are derived from detrended data, whereas the dates after 1927 are derived from data in levels. To evaluate the importance of this and other changes in technique, I derive a simple algorithm that matches the postwar NBER peaks and troughs closely. When this algorithm is applied to data for 1884 to 1940, the new prewar dates di…
The Nation in Depression
This paper examines the American Great Depression and the ways in which the U.S. experience during the 1930s resembled that of other countries in some regards and fundamentally differed in other aspects. I also evaluate the evidence on the causes of the Great Depression in the United States and the sources of the eventual recovery. The picture painted of the American Great Depression is one that stresses the importance of national, rather than in…
Phillips Lecture – Why Some Times Are Different
Analysis based on a new measure of financial distress for 24 advanced economies in the postwar period shows substantial variation in the aftermath of financial crises. This paper examines the role that macroeconomic policy plays in explaining this variation. We find that the degree of monetary and fiscal policy space prior to financial distress—that is, whether the policy interest rate is above the zero lower bound and whether the debt‐to‐ GDP ra…
Was the Federal Reserve Constrained by the Gold Standard During the Great Depression? Evidence from the 1932 Open Market Purchase Program
Could the Federal Reserve have reversed the decline in the money supply during the Great Depression without causing a loss of confidence in the U.S. commitment to the gold standard? This article uses the $1 billion expansionary open market operation in 1932 as a crucial case study. Using forward exchange rates and interest rate differentials to measure devaluation expectations, we find virtually no evidence that the large monetary expansion led i…
Why Did Prices Rise in the 1930s
Prices rose in most years between 1933 and 1941 even though output was substantially below trend. This inflation cannot be explained as simply the effect of devaluation and changes in expectations. Rather, because prewar price changes depended significantly on the growth rate of real output, the extraordinarily rapid growth after 1933 was an important force leading to inflation. At the same time, the NIRA, by encouraging minimum wages and collusi…
Choosing the Federal Reserve Chair
This paper demonstrates that the key determinants of policy success have been policymakers' views about how the economy works and what monetary policy can accomplish. In the first major section of the paper, the authors analyze the narrative record of the Federal Reserve to discover what policymakers believed and why they chose the policies they did. The authors find that the well-tempered monetary policies of the 1950s and of the 1980s and 1990s…
Changes in Business Cycles
This paper shows that the volatility of annual real macroeconomic indicators for the United States and the average severity of recessions have declined only slightly between the pre-World War I and post-World War II eras. Recessions have, however, become somewhat less frequent and more uniform. It argues that the advent of macroeconomic policy after World War II can account for both the observed continuity and change. Countercyclical monetary pol…
New Estimates of Prewar Gross National Product and Unemployment
The paper examines in detail revised estimates of unemployment and gross national product for the United States before 1929. It first discusses the nature of the revisions to each series and contrasts the assumptions underlying the new data with those underlying the Kuznets GNP series and the Lebergott unemployment rate series. It then examines the business cycle properties of the new prewar estimates. In analyzes the volatility and serial correl…
Spurious Volatility in Historical Unemployment Data
This paper shows that the stabilization of the unemployment rate between the pre-1930 and post-1948 eras is an artifact of improvements in data collection procedures. Prewar methods are used to construct postwar unemployment data that are consistent with the historical data. The constructed postwar series is nearly as volatile as the pre-1930 unemployment data. The constructed postwar data are systematically more volatile than the actual postwar …
New Estimates of Prewar Gross National Product and Unemployment
The paper examines in detail revised estimates of unemployment and gross national product for the United States before 1929. It first discusses the nature of the revisions to each series and contrasts the assumptions underlying the new data with those underlying the Kuznets GNP series and the Lebergott unemployment rate series. It then examines the business cycle properties of the new prewar estimates. In analyzes the volatility and serial correl…
The Instability of the Prewar Economy Reconsidered
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
The Prewar Business Cycle Reconsidered
Traditional estimates of prewar gross national product (GNP) exaggerate the size of cycles because they are based on the assumption that GNP moves approximately one for one with commodity output valued in producer prices. This paper derives new estimates of GNP for 1869-1908 using an estimate of the actual relationship between GNP and commodity output. This estimated relationship is allowed to be time-varying and is derived from a regression cove…
A New Monthly Index of Industrial Production, 1884–1940
The article derives a new monthly index of industrial production for the United States for 1884 to 1940. This index improves upon existing measures of industrial production by excluding indirect proxies for industrial activity, using only component series that are consistent over time, and not making ad hoc adjustments to the data. Analysis of the new index shows that it has more within-year volatility than conventional indexes, has relatively un…
What Ended the Great Depression
This paper examines the role of aggregate-demand stimulus in ending the Great Depression. Plausible estimates of the effects of fiscal and monetary changes indicate that nearly all the observed recovery of the U.S. economy prior to 1942 was due to monetary expansion. A huge gold inflow in the mid- and late 1930s swelled the money stock and stimulated the economy by lowering real interest rates and encouraging investment spending and purchases of …
The Nation in Depression
This paper examines the American Great Depression and the ways in which the U.S. experience during the 1930s resembled that of other countries in some regards and fundamentally differed in other aspects. I also evaluate the evidence on the causes of the Great Depression in the United States and the sources of the eventual recovery. The picture painted of the American Great Depression is one that stresses the importance of national, rather than in…
Remeasuring Business Cycles
This article evaluates the consistency of the NBER business cycle reference dates. It finds that the early reference dates are derived from detrended data, whereas the dates after 1927 are derived from data in levels. To evaluate the importance of this and other changes in technique, I derive a simple algorithm that matches the postwar NBER peaks and troughs closely. When this algorithm is applied to data for 1884 to 1940, the new prewar dates di…
Activities and Appointments
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. As you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button
Changes in Business Cycles
This paper shows that the volatility of annual real macroeconomic indicators for the United States and the average severity of recessions have declined only slightly between the pre-World War I and post-World War II eras. Recessions have, however, become somewhat less frequent and more uniform. It argues that the advent of macroeconomic policy after World War II can account for both the observed continuity and change. Countercyclical monetary pol…
Why Did Prices Rise in the 1930s
Prices rose in most years between 1933 and 1941 even though output was substantially below trend. This inflation cannot be explained as simply the effect of devaluation and changes in expectations. Rather, because prewar price changes depended significantly on the growth rate of real output, the extraordinarily rapid growth after 1933 was an important force leading to inflation. At the same time, the NIRA, by encouraging minimum wages and collusi…
Discussion of Hacker, Ward, and White
My assigned task is to discuss the three fine dissertations chosen as finalists for the Allan Nevins Prize. But, I want to start by mentioning the eight other dissertations that I read as part of the competition. I found it truly inspiring that so much good work is being done in American economic history. All 11 dissertations submitted were truly first rate and all of them deserved a chance to be recognized. So, to all who submitted, I want to sa…
A New Measure of Monetary Shocks
This paper develops a measure of U.S. monetary policy shocks for the period 1969–1996 that is relatively free of endogenous and anticipatory movements. Quantitative and narrative records are used to infer the Federal Reserve's intentions for the federal funds rate around FOMC meetings. This series is regressed on the Federal Reserve's internal forecasts to derive a measure free of systematic responses to information about future developments. Est…
Choosing the Federal Reserve Chair
This paper demonstrates that the key determinants of policy success have been policymakers' views about how the economy works and what monetary policy can accomplish. In the first major section of the paper, the authors analyze the narrative record of the Federal Reserve to discover what policymakers believed and why they chose the policies they did. The authors find that the well-tempered monetary policies of the 1950s and of the 1980s and 1990s…
Was the Federal Reserve Constrained by the Gold Standard During the Great Depression? Evidence from the 1932 Open Market Purchase Program
Could the Federal Reserve have reversed the decline in the money supply during the Great Depression without causing a loss of confidence in the U.S. commitment to the gold standard? This article uses the $1 billion expansionary open market operation in 1932 as a crucial case study. Using forward exchange rates and interest rate differentials to measure devaluation expectations, we find virtually no evidence that the large monetary expansion led i…
The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes
This paper investigates the impact of tax changes on economic activity. We use the narrative record, such as presidential speeches and Congressional reports, to identify the size, timing, and principal motivation for all major postwar tax policy actions. This analysis allows us to separate legislated changes into those taken for reasons related to prospective economic conditions and those taken for more exogenous reasons. The behavior of output f…
Phillips Lecture – Why Some Times Are Different
Analysis based on a new measure of financial distress for 24 advanced economies in the postwar period shows substantial variation in the aftermath of financial crises. This paper examines the role that macroeconomic policy plays in explaining this variation. We find that the degree of monetary and fiscal policy space prior to financial distress—that is, whether the policy interest rate is above the zero lower bound and whether the debt‐to‐ GDP ra…
Debt and Entanglements Between the Wars
The seven chapters in this volume tell stories about correlated macroeconomic and political events that occurred in six countries and four Dominions of the British Commonwealth between 1914 and 1940. By a story, I mean a collection of observations ordered in time together with causal interpretations that come from projecting the observations onto a theory. Correlations among our stories arise partly from the international aspects of the events be…
A Social Insurance Perspective on Pandemic Fiscal Policy
This paper considers fiscal policy during the pandemic through the lens of optimal social insurance. We develop a simple framework to analyze how government taxes and transfers could mimic the insurance that people would like to have had against pandemic income losses. Permutations of the framework provide insight into how unemployment insurance should be structured, when and how much hazard pay is called for, and whether fiscal policy should aim…
Economics (18 obras) · Macroeconomics (14 obras) · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact (11 obras) · Keynesian economics (9 obras) · Monetary economics (8 obras) · Computer Science (6 obras) · Econometrics (6 obras) · Monetary policy (6 obras) · Global Financial Crisis and Policies (5 obras) · Political science (5 obras)