Lukas F Stoetzer
Datos Biográficos
| ID | 947431 |
|---|---|
| NOMBRE | Lukas F Stoetzer |
| NOMBRES | Lukas F |
| APELLIDO | Stoetzer |
| FIRMA | STOETZER L F |
| AFILIACIONES | Witten/Herdecke University |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-2486-7496 |
| VERIFICADO | Sí |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 37 |
| TOTAL DE CITAS | 236 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 37 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMER AÑO DE PUBLICACIÓN | 2015 |
| AÑO MÁS RECIENTE DE PUBLICACIÓN | 2026 |
| ÍNDICE H | 9 |
Estimating Treatment Effects on Proportions with Synthetic Controls
Synthetic control methods are widely used for causal inference in case studies and panel data settings, often applied to model counterfactuals for proportional outcomes. However, conventional synthetic control methods are designed for univariate outcomes, leading researchers to model counterfactuals for each proportion separately. We make the case for jointly estimating synthetic controls across multiple compositional outcomes. Using the same wei…
How swing model assumptions shape vote-to-seat predictions
Most democracies distribute parliamentary seats based on electoral districts. Due to a lack of district-level polls, forecasters project national voting trends to district-level outcomes – drawing substantial public attention from voters. We know little about how different assumptions about these models influence forecasts. We address this gap by comparing uniform and proportional swing models, alongside additional variants. Using data from the p…
Parties’ issue responsiveness between elections
Are parties responsive to short-term changes in election polls? While party responsiveness to election outcomes has been widely studied, less is known about how parties adjust issue attention between elections. This study addresses this question using the comprehensive PARTYPRESS database. Supervised machine learning methods are employed to construct a dynamic measure of parties’ issue attention based on over 250,000 press releases from 68 partie…
Measuring inter-party communication
Inter-party communication is crucial in representative democracies, facilitating information exchange and dialogue among political parties. Despite its importance, research on this topic remains limited due to lacking conceptual clarity and challenges in large-scale measurement. This article offers a comprehensive definition of inter-party communication as public communication by parties about others, with a positive, neutral, or negative stance,…
The Zweitstimme Forecast for the German Federal Election 2025
This article forecasts the German Federal Election of 2025. We used our previous forecasting models to provide national-level forecasts for party-vote shares and district-level outcomes for candidate votes. We show that the combination of both models allowed us to calculate forecasts for both coalition majorities in Parliament and “vacant districts” under recent electoral reforms
Perceived inequality and populism
Rising inequalities have been described as fertile ground for populist parties across the world. In this article, we investigate the role that inequality perception plays in strengthening populist attitudes and increasing support for populist parties. Using data from the International Social Survey Programme, we find that those who perceive greater inequality in society are more likely to support populist parties. To explore the causal relationsh…
An election forecasting model for subnational elections
While election forecasts predominantly focus on national contests, many democratic elections take place at the subnational level. Subnational elections pose unique challenges for traditional fundamentals forecasting models due to less available polling data and idiosyncratic subnational politics. In this article, we present and evaluate the performance of Bayesian forecasting models for German state elections from 1990 to 2024. Our forecasts demo…
Coalition-directed Voting under Uncertainty
Causal inference with latent outcomes
While causal inference has become front and center in empirical political science, we know little about how to analyze causality with latent outcomes, such as political values, beliefs, and attitudes. In this article, we develop a framework for defining, identifying, and estimating the causal effect of an observed treatment on a latent outcome, which we call the latent treatment effect (LTE). We describe a set of assumptions that allow us to iden…
Extreme weather events do not increase political parties' environmental attention
Exposure to extreme weather events can make people more aware of environmental changes; however, it remains unclear how such events influence politicians’ behaviour. Combining supervised learning algorithms on over 260,000 press releases by European parties with a difference-in-differences design, we find that apart from Green parties, extreme weather events do not increase attention towards environmental issues. This suggests the consequences of…
The backlash against free movement
The free movement of people is a fundamental principle of the European Union (EU) that has led to an increase in EU‐internal migration. This study investigates the impact of increased immigration to Germany resulting from the 2004 and 2007 eastern enlargement of the EU on concerns about immigration within the German population. By merging 20 years of annual migration statistics with panel data on individual attitudes and exploiting exogenous vari…
Voters’ Expectations in Constituency Elections without Local Polls
How do voters form accurate expectations about the strength of political candidates in constituency elections if there are no reliable constituency polls available? We argue that voters can use national election polls and past election results to increase the accuracy of their expectations. A survey experiment during the German federal election of 2021 confirms that the provision of national election polls and past results increases the accuracy …
Learning from Polls During Electoral Campaigns
Voters’ beliefs about the strength of political parties are a central part of many foundational political science theories. In this article, we present a dynamic Bayesian learning model that allows us to study how voters form these beliefs by learning from pre-election polls over the course of an election campaign. In the model, belief adaptation to new polls can vary due to the perceived precision of the poll or the reliance on prior beliefs. We…
The Partypress Database
We present the PARTYPRESS Database, which compiles more than 250,000 published press releases from 68 parties in 9 European countries. The database covers the press releases of the most relevant political parties in these countries from 2010 onward. It provides a supervised machine learning classification of press releases into 21 unique issue categories according to a general codebook. The PARTYPRESS Database can be used to study parties’ issue …
Group-based public opinion polarisation in multi-party systems
Public opinion polarisation can impair society’s ability to reach a democratic consensus in different political issue areas. This appears particularly true when the polarisation of opinions coincides with clearly identifiable social groups. The literature on public opinion polarisation has mostly focussed on the US two-party context. We lack concepts and measures that can be adapted to European countries with multi-party systems and multi-layered…
Affective partisan polarization and moral dilemmas during the Covid-19 pandemic
Recent scholarship on affective polarization documents partisan animosity in people's everyday lives. But does partisan dislike go so far as to deny fundamental rights? We study this question through a moral dilemma that gained notoriety during the COVID-19 pandemic: triage decisions on the allocation of intensive medical care. Using a conjoint experiment in five countries we analyze the influence of patients’ partisanship next to commonly discus…
Non-Separable Preferences in the Statistical Analysis of Roll Call Votes
Conventional multidimensional statistical models of roll call votes assume that legislators’ preferences are additively separable over dimensions. In this article, we introduce an item response model of roll call votes that allows for non-separability over latent dimensions. Conceptually, non-separability matters if outcomes over dimensions are related rather than independent in legislators’ decisions. Monte Carlo simulations highlight that separ…
How does income inequality affect the support for populist parties
Recent studies provide evidence that income inequality is a relevant driver for the electoral success of populist parties all over Europe. In this article, we aim to understand how exactly increasing income inequality can lead to support for populist parties. More specifically, we discuss four different attitudinal mechanisms from previous research: economic insecurities, trust in political elites, social integration, and national identity. We re…
Can wedge strategies by mainstream parties cross-cut the anti-immigration far right vote
Anti-immigration campaigns have helped far right parties to establish themselves in party systems around the world. We examine whether mainstream parties can employ wedge issue campaigns that divide the far right anti-immigration vote to win back electoral support. Wedge issues that cross-cut the anti-immigration vote may enhance the electoral support of mainstream parties, as long as they do not simultaneously alienate pro-immigration voters. We…
When information is not enough for strategic voting
Voters frequently have to decide between supporting their preferred candidate or choosing a less appealing but more viable alternative. Previous research argues that different aspects of political sophistication, but especially political information, permit citizens to navigate these strategic trade-offs. In this research note, we disentangle the effect of political information from the effect of cognitive capacity on strategic voting in an exper…
Prioritization preferences for Covid-19 vaccination are consistent across five countries
Vaccination against COVID-19 is making progress globally, but vaccine doses remain a rare commodity in many parts of the world. New virus variants require vaccines to be updated, hampering the availability of effective vaccines. Policymakers have defined criteria to regulate who gets priority access to the vaccination, such as age, health complications, or those who hold system-relevant jobs. But how does the public think about vaccine allocation…
The Zweitstimme Model
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
Eliciting Beliefs as Distributions in Online Surveys
Citizens’ beliefs about uncertain events are fundamental variables in many areas of political science. While beliefs are often conceptualized in the form of distributions, obtaining reliable measures in terms of full probability densities is a difficult task. In this letter, we ask if there is an effective way of eliciting beliefs as distributions in the context of online surveys. Relying on experimental evidence, we evaluate the performance of f…
The Two Faces of Party Ambiguity
Recent research on electoral behavior has suggested that policy-informed vote choices are frequently obstructed by uncertainty about party positions. Given the significance of clear and distinct party platforms for meaningful representation, several studies have investigated the conditions under which parties are perceived as ambiguous. Yet previous studies have often relied on measures of perceived positional ambiguity that are fairly remote fro…
Tracking and promoting the usage of a Covid-19 contact tracing app
Attitudes towards highly skilled and low‐skilled immigration in Europe
To what extent do economic concerns drive anti‐migrant attitudes? Key theoretical arguments extract two central motives: increased labour market competition and the fiscal burden linked to the influx of migrants. This article provides new evidence regarding the impact of material self‐interest on attitudes towards immigrants. It reports the results of a survey experiment embedded in representative surveys in 15 European countries before and after…
Weighting Parties and Coalitions
Democratic accountability is characterized as weak in parliamentary systems where voters cannot choose their government directly. We argue that coalition signals about desirable and undesirable coalitions that might be formed after the election help to provide this essential aspect of democratic government. We propose a simple model that identi es the e ect of coalition signals on individual vote decisions. Based on survey experiments in two di e…
How Parties React to Voter Transitions
This letter investigates how voter transitions between parties affect parties' policy positioning. While a growing literature investigates the role of election results as signals for parties' policy adaption, it has mostly focused on vote changes of individual parties. However, parties do not know only whether they have won or lost in an election; they also have detailed information on which parties they won votes from and which parties they lost…
How does income inequality affect the support for populist parties
Recent studies provide evidence that income inequality is a relevant driver for the electoral success of populist parties all over Europe. In this article, we aim to understand how exactly increasing income inequality can lead to support for populist parties. More specifically, we discuss four different attitudinal mechanisms from previous research: economic insecurities, trust in political elites, social integration, and national identity. We re…
Immigration and support for redistribution
In times of increasing globalisation scholars put considerable efforts into understanding the consequences of immigration to the welfare state. One important factor in this respect is public support for the welfare state and redistribution. This article presents results from a unique survey experiment and a panel study in three European countries (Norway, Germany and the Netherlands) in order to examine whether and how individuals change their pr…
Tracking and promoting the usage of a Covid-19 contact tracing app
What drives rental votes? How coalitions signals facilitate strategic coalition voting
Vote Choice and the Nonseparability of Economic and Social Issues
How voters use political issues to elect political candidates is of central importance to our understanding of democratic representation. Research on voting behavior often assumes that American voters hold distinct economic and cultural issue preferences. In this research note, we point out that this does not necessarily imply that preferences for candidates’ positions on the two issue dimensions are also additively separable in voters’ decisions…
How do coalition signals shape voting behavior? Revealing the mediating role of coalition expectations
Multidimensional Spatial Voting with Non-separable Preferences
In most multidimensional spatial models, the systematic component of agent utility functions is specified as additive separable. We argue that this assumption is too restrictive, at least in the context of spatial voting in mass elections. Here, assuming separability would stipulate that voters do not care about how policy platforms combine positions on multiple policy dimensions. We present a statistical implementation of Davis, Hinich, and Orde…
Group-based public opinion polarisation in multi-party systems
Public opinion polarisation can impair society’s ability to reach a democratic consensus in different political issue areas. This appears particularly true when the polarisation of opinions coincides with clearly identifiable social groups. The literature on public opinion polarisation has mostly focussed on the US two-party context. We lack concepts and measures that can be adapted to European countries with multi-party systems and multi-layered…
Affective partisan polarization and moral dilemmas during the Covid-19 pandemic
Recent scholarship on affective polarization documents partisan animosity in people's everyday lives. But does partisan dislike go so far as to deny fundamental rights? We study this question through a moral dilemma that gained notoriety during the COVID-19 pandemic: triage decisions on the allocation of intensive medical care. Using a conjoint experiment in five countries we analyze the influence of patients’ partisanship next to commonly discus…
The Two Faces of Party Ambiguity
Recent research on electoral behavior has suggested that policy-informed vote choices are frequently obstructed by uncertainty about party positions. Given the significance of clear and distinct party platforms for meaningful representation, several studies have investigated the conditions under which parties are perceived as ambiguous. Yet previous studies have often relied on measures of perceived positional ambiguity that are fairly remote fro…
Forecasting Elections in Multiparty Systems
We offer a dynamic Bayesian forecasting model for multiparty elections. It combines data from published pre-election public opinion polls with information from fundamentals-based forecasting models. The model takes care of the multiparty nature of the setting and allows making statements about the probability of other quantities of interest, such as the probability of a plurality of votes for a party or the majority for certain coalitions in parl…
Eliciting Beliefs as Distributions in Online Surveys
Citizens’ beliefs about uncertain events are fundamental variables in many areas of political science. While beliefs are often conceptualized in the form of distributions, obtaining reliable measures in terms of full probability densities is a difficult task. In this letter, we ask if there is an effective way of eliciting beliefs as distributions in the context of online surveys. Relying on experimental evidence, we evaluate the performance of f…
Can wedge strategies by mainstream parties cross-cut the anti-immigration far right vote
Anti-immigration campaigns have helped far right parties to establish themselves in party systems around the world. We examine whether mainstream parties can employ wedge issue campaigns that divide the far right anti-immigration vote to win back electoral support. Wedge issues that cross-cut the anti-immigration vote may enhance the electoral support of mainstream parties, as long as they do not simultaneously alienate pro-immigration voters. We…
Causal inference with latent outcomes
While causal inference has become front and center in empirical political science, we know little about how to analyze causality with latent outcomes, such as political values, beliefs, and attitudes. In this article, we develop a framework for defining, identifying, and estimating the causal effect of an observed treatment on a latent outcome, which we call the latent treatment effect (LTE). We describe a set of assumptions that allow us to iden…
The Partypress Database
We present the PARTYPRESS Database, which compiles more than 250,000 published press releases from 68 parties in 9 European countries. The database covers the press releases of the most relevant political parties in these countries from 2010 onward. It provides a supervised machine learning classification of press releases into 21 unique issue categories according to a general codebook. The PARTYPRESS Database can be used to study parties’ issue …
A Matter of Representation
The application of spatial voting theories to popular elections presupposes an electorate that chooses political representatives on the basis of their well-structured policy preferences. Behavioral researchers have long contended that parts of the electorate instead hold unstructured and inconsistent policy beliefs. This article proposes an extension to spatial voting theories to analyze the effect of varying consistency in policy preferences on …
When information is not enough for strategic voting
Voters frequently have to decide between supporting their preferred candidate or choosing a less appealing but more viable alternative. Previous research argues that different aspects of political sophistication, but especially political information, permit citizens to navigate these strategic trade-offs. In this research note, we disentangle the effect of political information from the effect of cognitive capacity on strategic voting in an exper…
The Zweitstimme Model
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
Election fraud, digit tests and how humans fabricate vote counts - An experimental approach
Voters’ Expectations in Constituency Elections without Local Polls
How do voters form accurate expectations about the strength of political candidates in constituency elections if there are no reliable constituency polls available? We argue that voters can use national election polls and past election results to increase the accuracy of their expectations. A survey experiment during the German federal election of 2021 confirms that the provision of national election polls and past results increases the accuracy …
Learning from Polls During Electoral Campaigns
Voters’ beliefs about the strength of political parties are a central part of many foundational political science theories. In this article, we present a dynamic Bayesian learning model that allows us to study how voters form these beliefs by learning from pre-election polls over the course of an election campaign. In the model, belief adaptation to new polls can vary due to the perceived precision of the poll or the reliance on prior beliefs. We…
Non-Separable Preferences in the Statistical Analysis of Roll Call Votes
Conventional multidimensional statistical models of roll call votes assume that legislators’ preferences are additively separable over dimensions. In this article, we introduce an item response model of roll call votes that allows for non-separability over latent dimensions. Conceptually, non-separability matters if outcomes over dimensions are related rather than independent in legislators’ decisions. Monte Carlo simulations highlight that separ…
Multidimensional Spatial Voting with Non-separable Preferences
In most multidimensional spatial models, the systematic component of agent utility functions is specified as additive separable. We argue that this assumption is too restrictive, at least in the context of spatial voting in mass elections. Here, assuming separability would stipulate that voters do not care about how policy platforms combine positions on multiple policy dimensions. We present a statistical implementation of Davis, Hinich, and Orde…
What drives rental votes? How coalitions signals facilitate strategic coalition voting
Immigration and support for redistribution
In times of increasing globalisation scholars put considerable efforts into understanding the consequences of immigration to the welfare state. One important factor in this respect is public support for the welfare state and redistribution. This article presents results from a unique survey experiment and a panel study in three European countries (Norway, Germany and the Netherlands) in order to examine whether and how individuals change their pr…
Weighting Parties and Coalitions
Democratic accountability is characterized as weak in parliamentary systems where voters cannot choose their government directly. We argue that coalition signals about desirable and undesirable coalitions that might be formed after the election help to provide this essential aspect of democratic government. We propose a simple model that identi es the e ect of coalition signals on individual vote decisions. Based on survey experiments in two di e…
Attitudes towards highly skilled and low‐skilled immigration in Europe
To what extent do economic concerns drive anti‐migrant attitudes? Key theoretical arguments extract two central motives: increased labour market competition and the fiscal burden linked to the influx of migrants. This article provides new evidence regarding the impact of material self‐interest on attitudes towards immigrants. It reports the results of a survey experiment embedded in representative surveys in 15 European countries before and after…
Forecasting Elections in Multiparty Systems
We offer a dynamic Bayesian forecasting model for multiparty elections. It combines data from published pre-election public opinion polls with information from fundamentals-based forecasting models. The model takes care of the multiparty nature of the setting and allows making statements about the probability of other quantities of interest, such as the probability of a plurality of votes for a party or the majority for certain coalitions in parl…
A Matter of Representation
The application of spatial voting theories to popular elections presupposes an electorate that chooses political representatives on the basis of their well-structured policy preferences. Behavioral researchers have long contended that parts of the electorate instead hold unstructured and inconsistent policy beliefs. This article proposes an extension to spatial voting theories to analyze the effect of varying consistency in policy preferences on …
Election fraud, digit tests and how humans fabricate vote counts - An experimental approach
Vote Choice and the Nonseparability of Economic and Social Issues
How voters use political issues to elect political candidates is of central importance to our understanding of democratic representation. Research on voting behavior often assumes that American voters hold distinct economic and cultural issue preferences. In this research note, we point out that this does not necessarily imply that preferences for candidates’ positions on the two issue dimensions are also additively separable in voters’ decisions…
How do coalition signals shape voting behavior? Revealing the mediating role of coalition expectations
How Parties React to Voter Transitions
This letter investigates how voter transitions between parties affect parties' policy positioning. While a growing literature investigates the role of election results as signals for parties' policy adaption, it has mostly focused on vote changes of individual parties. However, parties do not know only whether they have won or lost in an election; they also have detailed information on which parties they won votes from and which parties they lost…
Eliciting Beliefs as Distributions in Online Surveys
Citizens’ beliefs about uncertain events are fundamental variables in many areas of political science. While beliefs are often conceptualized in the form of distributions, obtaining reliable measures in terms of full probability densities is a difficult task. In this letter, we ask if there is an effective way of eliciting beliefs as distributions in the context of online surveys. Relying on experimental evidence, we evaluate the performance of f…
The Two Faces of Party Ambiguity
Recent research on electoral behavior has suggested that policy-informed vote choices are frequently obstructed by uncertainty about party positions. Given the significance of clear and distinct party platforms for meaningful representation, several studies have investigated the conditions under which parties are perceived as ambiguous. Yet previous studies have often relied on measures of perceived positional ambiguity that are fairly remote fro…
Tracking and promoting the usage of a Covid-19 contact tracing app
The effect of televised candidate debates on the support for political parties
Prioritization preferences for Covid-19 vaccination are consistent across five countries
Vaccination against COVID-19 is making progress globally, but vaccine doses remain a rare commodity in many parts of the world. New virus variants require vaccines to be updated, hampering the availability of effective vaccines. Policymakers have defined criteria to regulate who gets priority access to the vaccination, such as age, health complications, or those who hold system-relevant jobs. But how does the public think about vaccine allocation…
The Zweitstimme Model
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
The Partypress Database
We present the PARTYPRESS Database, which compiles more than 250,000 published press releases from 68 parties in 9 European countries. The database covers the press releases of the most relevant political parties in these countries from 2010 onward. It provides a supervised machine learning classification of press releases into 21 unique issue categories according to a general codebook. The PARTYPRESS Database can be used to study parties’ issue …
Group-based public opinion polarisation in multi-party systems
Public opinion polarisation can impair society’s ability to reach a democratic consensus in different political issue areas. This appears particularly true when the polarisation of opinions coincides with clearly identifiable social groups. The literature on public opinion polarisation has mostly focussed on the US two-party context. We lack concepts and measures that can be adapted to European countries with multi-party systems and multi-layered…
Affective partisan polarization and moral dilemmas during the Covid-19 pandemic
Recent scholarship on affective polarization documents partisan animosity in people's everyday lives. But does partisan dislike go so far as to deny fundamental rights? We study this question through a moral dilemma that gained notoriety during the COVID-19 pandemic: triage decisions on the allocation of intensive medical care. Using a conjoint experiment in five countries we analyze the influence of patients’ partisanship next to commonly discus…
Non-Separable Preferences in the Statistical Analysis of Roll Call Votes
Conventional multidimensional statistical models of roll call votes assume that legislators’ preferences are additively separable over dimensions. In this article, we introduce an item response model of roll call votes that allows for non-separability over latent dimensions. Conceptually, non-separability matters if outcomes over dimensions are related rather than independent in legislators’ decisions. Monte Carlo simulations highlight that separ…
How does income inequality affect the support for populist parties
Recent studies provide evidence that income inequality is a relevant driver for the electoral success of populist parties all over Europe. In this article, we aim to understand how exactly increasing income inequality can lead to support for populist parties. More specifically, we discuss four different attitudinal mechanisms from previous research: economic insecurities, trust in political elites, social integration, and national identity. We re…
Can wedge strategies by mainstream parties cross-cut the anti-immigration far right vote
Anti-immigration campaigns have helped far right parties to establish themselves in party systems around the world. We examine whether mainstream parties can employ wedge issue campaigns that divide the far right anti-immigration vote to win back electoral support. Wedge issues that cross-cut the anti-immigration vote may enhance the electoral support of mainstream parties, as long as they do not simultaneously alienate pro-immigration voters. We…
When information is not enough for strategic voting
Voters frequently have to decide between supporting their preferred candidate or choosing a less appealing but more viable alternative. Previous research argues that different aspects of political sophistication, but especially political information, permit citizens to navigate these strategic trade-offs. In this research note, we disentangle the effect of political information from the effect of cognitive capacity on strategic voting in an exper…
Extreme weather events do not increase political parties' environmental attention
Exposure to extreme weather events can make people more aware of environmental changes; however, it remains unclear how such events influence politicians’ behaviour. Combining supervised learning algorithms on over 260,000 press releases by European parties with a difference-in-differences design, we find that apart from Green parties, extreme weather events do not increase attention towards environmental issues. This suggests the consequences of…
Electoral Systems and Political Participation (27 obras) · Political science (27 obras) · Politics (26 obras) · Law (20 obras) · Economics (18 obras) · Law (17 obras) · Computer Science (15 obras) · Psychology (11 obras) · Voting (10 obras) · Political economy (9 obras)