Scott D Sagan
Datos Biográficos
| ID | 955381 |
|---|---|
| NOMBRE | Scott D Sagan |
| NOMBRES | Scott D |
| APELLIDO | Sagan |
| FIRMA | SAGAN S D |
| AFILIACIONES | Stanford University |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-0194-417X |
| VERIFICADO | Sí |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 70 |
| TOTAL DE CITAS | 709 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 69 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 1 |
| PRIMER AÑO DE PUBLICACIÓN | 1979 |
| AÑO MÁS RECIENTE DE PUBLICACIÓN | 2025 |
| ÍNDICE H | 13 |
Creeds and Contestation
Introduction
The Role of Law in Global Nuclear Politics
Atomic Arguments and Counter-Arguments
In this paper, we introduce a novel approach for assessing the effectiveness of messaging designed to influence public opinion on the use of nuclear weapons. We argue that messages intended to decrease support for nuclear use are most effective when they meet three conditions. First, they must present subjects with novel counter-attitudinal information or interpretations that were not likely to be already incorporated into subjects’ opinions. Sec…
The Fragile Balance of Terror
In The Fragile Balance of Terror , the foremost experts on nuclear policy and strategy offer insight into an era rife with more nuclear powers. Some of these new powers suffer domestic instability, others are led by pathological personalist dictators, and many are situated in highly unstable regions of the world—a volatile mix of variables. The increasing fragility of deterrence in the twenty-first century is created by a confluence of forces: mi…
Public Opinion and the Nuclear Taboo Across Nations
Just and Unjust Nuclear Deterrence
In this essay, I propose five principles to make U.S. nuclear deterrence policy more just and effective in the future: sever the link between the mass killing of innocent civilians and nuclear deterrence by focusing targeting on adversaries’ military power and senior political leadership, not their population; never use or plan to use a nuclear weapon against any target that could be destroyed or neutralized by conventional weapons; reject “belli…
Inconstant Care
The choice between protecting friendly soldiers or foreign civilians is a critical strategic dilemma faced in modern war. Prevailing theories suggest that casualties among both groups depress war support in Western democratic societies. Yet we know little about how ordinary citizens balance force protection and civilian casualty avoidance, and whether public opinion differs across Western democracies. Using survey experiments, we test three micro…
Kettles of Hawks
Recent scholarship has established that a majority of Americans will support the use of nuclear weapons and violate the principle of noncombatant immunity when American lives are on the line. Some scholars contend, however, that these hawkish American attitudes are an outlier and that other Western democratic publics have more fully internalized the nuclear taboo, as well as the prohibition on deliberately killing civilians. To investigate cross-…
The Rule of Law and the Role of Strategy in U.S. Nuclear Doctrine
In 2013, the U.S. government announced that its nuclear war plans would be “consistent with the fundamental principles of the Law of Armed Conflict” and would “apply the principles of distinction and proportionality and seek to minimize collateral damage to civilian populations and civilian objects.” If properly applied, these legal principles can have a profound impact on U.S. nuclear doctrine. The prohibition against targeting civilians means t…
Are Belligerent Reprisals against Civilians Legal
October 25 2021 Are Belligerent Reprisals against Civilians Legal? Christopher A. Ford, Christopher A. Ford Christopher A. Ford is a visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. He served four years in President Donald Trump's administration, including three as U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for International Security and Nonproliferation. The views expressed in both letters to the editors are those of the authors and do n…
Why the atomic bombing of Hiroshima would be illegal today
The archival record makes clear that killing large numbers of civilians was the primary purpose of the atomic bombing of Hiroshima; destruction of military targets and war industry was a secondary goal and one that “legitimized” the intentional destruction of a city in the minds of some participants. The atomic bomb was detonated over the center of Hiroshima. More than 70,000 men, women, and children were killed immediately; the munitions factori…
Does the Noncombatant Immunity Norm Have Stopping Power? A Debate
Our 2015 survey experiment—reported in the 2017 International Security article “Revisiting Hiroshima in Iran”—asked a representative sample of Americans to choose between continuing a ground invasion of Iran that would kill an estimated 20,000 U.S. soldiers or launching a nuclear attack on an Iranian city that would kill an estimated 100,000 civilians.1 Fifty-six percent of the respondents preferred the nuclear strike. When a different set of sub…
Weighing Lives in War
This article explores how the American public weighs tradeoffs between foreign and compatriot fatalities during war. This focus provides an important window into the meaning and significance of citizenship and national identity and, in turn, the most fateful consequences of inclusion and exclusion in the international context. To examine these attitudes, we conducted an original survey experiment asking subjects to consider a fictional US militar…
On Reciprocity, Revenge, and Replication
In their contributions to the symposium “Just War and Unjust Soldiers,” Michael Walzer, Jeff McMahan, and Robert O. Keohane add greatly to our understanding of how best to study and apply just war doctrine to real-world conflicts. We argue, however, that they underestimate both the degree to which the American public seeks revenge, rather than just reciprocity, and the extent of popular acceptance of violations of noncombatant immunity by soldier…
Just War and Unjust Soldiers
Traditional just war doctrine holds that political leaders are morally responsible for the decision to initiate war, while individual soldiers should be judged solely by their conduct in war. According to this view, soldiers fighting in an unjust war of aggression and soldiers on the opposing side seeking to defend their country are morally equal as long as each obeys the rules of combat. Revisionist scholars, however, maintain that soldiers who …
Not Just a War Theory
In this article we assess American public attitudes toward the just war principles of proportionality, due care and distinction. Consistent with the logic of proportionality, we find that Americans are less willing to inflict collateral deaths on foreign civilians when the military advantage of destroying a target is lower. Most Americans also are willing to risk the deaths of American soldiers to avert a larger number of collateral foreign civil…
Revisiting Hiroshima in Iran
Numerous polls demonstrate that U.S. public approval of President Harry Truman's decision to drop the atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki has declined significantly since 1945. Many scholars and political figures argue that this decline constitutes compelling evidence of the emergence of a “nuclear taboo” or that the principle of noncombatant immunity has become a deeply held norm. An original survey experiment, recreating the situation that t…
The Face of Battle without the Rules of War
This essay analyzes the extraordinary drawings of Red Horse, a Minneconjou warrior who fought at the 1876 Battle of the Little Bighorn, to provide insights into what warfare was like without just war doctrine or the laws of armed conflict to place constraints on violence. The artist's candid vision of the battle and its aftermath portrays the indiscriminant brutality of the Great Sioux War, the disrespect given to a hated enemy, and the lingering…
The Changing Rules of War
In his historic May 2016 speech in Hiroshima, President Barack Obama highlighted the need to strengthen the institutions that govern, however imperfectly, the initiation, conduct, and aftermath of war. The speech marked the first time a sitting American president had visited Hiroshima, a city the United States destroyed in August 1945 with a single atomic bomb, killing well over one hundred thousand men, women, and children. Obama ended his speec…
The Nuclear Necessity Principle
In 2013, Obama administration spokesmen stated that all U.S. nuclear war plans “apply the principles of distinction and proportionality and seek to minimize collateral damage to civilian populations and civilian objects.” We analyze U.S. nuclear policy documents and argue that major changes must be made if U.S. nuclear war plans are to conform to these principles of just war doctrine and the law of armed conflict. We propose that the U.S. preside…
Ethics, Technology & War
“All's fair in love and war,” so the saying goes. But, of course, we know that it's not true. For we commonly judge and sometimes punish individuals, in the arena of love, for infidelity, deceit, and crimes of passion; and we commonly judge and sometimes punish individuals, in the arena of combat, for acts of aggression, rape and pillage in war, and crimes against humanity. The intense pressure of competition, in both affairs of the heart and the…
The Future of the Nuclear Order
Keeping the nuclear peace will require vigilance, restraint, wisdom, and a bit of luck
The spread of nuclear weapons
In this text, two leading scholars of international politics debate the pros and cons of nuclear weaponry. This text serves as a concise introduction to an issue that encapsulates some of the most basic themes in international relations: are states rational? Are states sovereign? Does international organization work? New to this second edition is a case study of the precarious relations between India and Pakistan, exploring specific problems and …
Learning from a Disaster
Atomic Aversion
How strong are normative prohibitions on state behavior? We examine this question by analyzing anti-nuclear norms, sometimes called the "nuclear taboo," using an original survey experiment to evaluate American attitudes regarding nuclear use. We find that the public has only a weak aversion to using nuclear weapons and that this aversion has few characteristics of an "unthinkable" behavior or taboo. Instead, public attitudes about whether to use …
Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons
The Causes of Nuclear Weapons Proliferation
This critical review of the new political science literature on the causes of nuclear weapons proliferation consists of seven parts. The first section briefly presents what we know about which states developed nuclear weapons and which states started but abandoned weapons development programs. I highlight the problems that result from uncertainty about the accuracy and completeness of the data. The second and third sections review the literature …
The Limits of Safety
Environmental tragedies such as Chernobyl and the Exxon Valdez remind us that catastrophic accidents are always possible in a world full of hazardous technologies. Yet, the apparently excellent safety record with nuclear weapons has led scholars, policy-makers, and the public alike to believe that nuclear arsenals can serve as a secure deterrent for the foreseeable future. In this provocative book, Scott Sagan challenges such optimism. Sagan's re…
The Perils of Proliferation
Revisiting Hiroshima in Iran
Numerous polls demonstrate that U.S. public approval of President Harry Truman's decision to drop the atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki has declined significantly since 1945. Many scholars and political figures argue that this decline constitutes compelling evidence of the emergence of a “nuclear taboo” or that the principle of noncombatant immunity has become a deeply held norm. An original survey experiment, recreating the situation that t…
The Perils of Predicting Proliferation
Studies of nuclear proliferation share five serious problems. First, nuclear programs' initiation and completion dates are ambiguous and difficult to code, but findings are rarely subjected to sufficient robustness tests using alternative codings. Second, independent variables overlook important factors such as prestige and bureaucratic power and often use poor proxies for concepts such as the nonproliferation regime. Third, methodologies and dat…
The Spread of Nuclear Weapons
If the build-up of nuclear weapons was a significant factor in maintaining the long peace between the United States and the Soviet Union, will the spread of nuclear weapons beyond these two superpowers stabilize or disrupt international relations. In this book, two scholars of international politics debate the issue. Kenneth Waltz argues that fear of the spread of nuclear weapons is unfounded - may be better. Nuclear proliferation may be a stabil…
Not Just a War Theory
In this article we assess American public attitudes toward the just war principles of proportionality, due care and distinction. Consistent with the logic of proportionality, we find that Americans are less willing to inflict collateral deaths on foreign civilians when the military advantage of destroying a target is lower. Most Americans also are willing to risk the deaths of American soldiers to avert a larger number of collateral foreign civil…
Revisited
Kettles of Hawks
Recent scholarship has established that a majority of Americans will support the use of nuclear weapons and violate the principle of noncombatant immunity when American lives are on the line. Some scholars contend, however, that these hawkish American attitudes are an outlier and that other Western democratic publics have more fully internalized the nuclear taboo, as well as the prohibition on deliberately killing civilians. To investigate cross-…
Nuclear Alerts and Crisis Management
The Madman Nuclear Alert
April 01 2003 The Madman Nuclear Alert: Secrecy, Signaling, and Safety in October 1969 Scott D. Sagan, Scott D. Sagan Professor of Political Science and Co-director of the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University. Search for other works by this author on: This Site Google Scholar Jeremi Suri Jeremi Suri Assistant Professor of History at the University of Wisconsin, Madison. Search for other works by this author on:…
The Commitment Trap
April 01 2000 The Commitment Trap: Why the United States Should Not Use Nuclear Threats to Deter Biological and Chemical Weapons Attacks Scott D. Sagan Scott D. Sagan Associate Professor of Political Science and Co-Director of the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University. Search for other works by this author on: This Site Google Scholar Author and Article Information Scott D. Sagan Associate Professor of Political…
Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons? Three Models in Search of a Bomb
January 01 1997 Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons? Three Models in Search of a Bomb Scott D. Sagan Scott D. Sagan Scott D. Sagan is Associate Professor of Political Science and a faculty associate of the Center for International Security and Arms Control at Stanford University. Search for other works by this author on: This Site Google Scholar Author and Article Information Scott D. Sagan Scott D. Sagan is Associate Professor of Political Scien…
The Origins of the Pacific War
Nuclear power without nuclear proliferation
Sagan on the global nuclear future capability.) Condence in the npt regime seems to be eroding even as interest in nuclear power is expanding
Siop-62
Just War and Unjust Soldiers
Traditional just war doctrine holds that political leaders are morally responsible for the decision to initiate war, while individual soldiers should be judged solely by their conduct in war. According to this view, soldiers fighting in an unjust war of aggression and soldiers on the opposing side seeking to defend their country are morally equal as long as each obeys the rules of combat. Revisionist scholars, however, maintain that soldiers who …
The Case for No First Use
The forthcoming US Nuclear Posture Review should broaden the traditional focus of such policy reviews on deterrence requirements and include a thorough analysis of how US nuclear declaratory policy influences the likelihood of nuclear proliferation, the consequences of proliferation, and perceptions of the illegitimacy of nuclear terrorism. Such a broader frame of analysis leads to the conclusion that it would be in the US national interest to ad…
Atomic Arguments and Counter-Arguments
In this paper, we introduce a novel approach for assessing the effectiveness of messaging designed to influence public opinion on the use of nuclear weapons. We argue that messages intended to decrease support for nuclear use are most effective when they meet three conditions. First, they must present subjects with novel counter-attitudinal information or interpretations that were not likely to be already incorporated into subjects’ opinions. Sec…
How to Keep the Bomb from Iran
The ongoing crisis with Tehran is not the first time Washington has had to face a hostile government attempting to develop nuclear weapons. Nor is it likely to be the last. Yet the reasoning of U.S. officials now struggling to deal with Iran's nuclear ambitions is clouded by a kind of historical amnesia, which leads to both creeping fatalism about the United States' ability to keep Iran from getting the bomb and excessive optimism about the Unite…
The Perils of Proliferation in South Asia
Research Article| December 01 2001 The Perils of Proliferation in South Asia Scott D. Sagan Scott D. Sagan Search for other works by this author on: This Site PubMed Google Scholar Asian Survey (2001) 41 (6): 1064–1086. https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2001.41.6.1064 Views Icon Views Article contents Figures & tables Video Audio Supplementary Data Peer Review Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Email Tools Icon Tools Get Permissions Cite Icon Ci…
Moving Targets
Does the Noncombatant Immunity Norm Have Stopping Power? A Debate
Our 2015 survey experiment—reported in the 2017 International Security article “Revisiting Hiroshima in Iran”—asked a representative sample of Americans to choose between continuing a ground invasion of Iran that would kill an estimated 20,000 U.S. soldiers or launching a nuclear attack on an Iranian city that would kill an estimated 100,000 civilians.1 Fifty-six percent of the respondents preferred the nuclear strike. When a different set of sub…
Lessons of the Yom Kippur Alert
Crisis Resolution
Journal Article Crisis Resolution: Presidential Decision Making in the Mayaguez and Korean Confrontations, by Richard G. Head, Frisco W. Short and Robert C. McFarlane Get access Crisis Resolution: Presidential Decision Making in the Mayaguez and Korean Confrontations by Richard G. Head, Frisco W. Short, and Robert C. McFarlane. Boulder, Colo., Westview Press, 1979. 323 pp. $20.00. Scott D. Sagan Scott D. Sagan Harvard Urtiversity Search for other…
Conflagration or Concord
Nuclear Alerts and Crisis Management
Revisited
The Origins of Offense and the Consequences of Counterforce
Scott Sagan, in Revisited: Allies, Offense, and Instability, in the Fall 1986 issue of International Security, presents two arguments that significantly advance the debate on the origins of offensive strategies and their consequences for strategic stability.1 First, he argues that offense is needed to honor alliance commitments when sufficient forces cannot be moved to defend the threatened ally on its own territory. He suggests that this created…
Siop-62
Games of Chicken
The Origins of the Pacific War
The Origin and Prevention of Major Wars
Since the development of the modern state system in Europe four centuries ago, there have been ten general wars involving a majority of the major powers and a high level of casualties. Another major war is difficult to conceive of, since it would presumably be the last such conflict, and yet it is not an impossibility. In this volume a distinguished group of political scientists and historians examine the origins of major wars and discuss the pro…
Moving Targets
Rules of Engagement
Inventing Accuracy
History, Analogy, and Deterrence Theory
The Limits of Safety
Environmental tragedies such as Chernobyl and the Exxon Valdez remind us that catastrophic accidents are always possible in a world full of hazardous technologies. Yet, the apparently excellent safety record with nuclear weapons has led scholars, policy-makers, and the public alike to believe that nuclear arsenals can serve as a secure deterrent for the foreseeable future. In this provocative book, Scott Sagan challenges such optimism. Sagan's re…
The Gulf Conflict 1990–1991
The Limits of Safety
1The Origins of Accidents11Ch. 2Nuclear Weapons Safety during the Cuban Missile Crisis53Ch. 3Intelligence and Warning during the Cuban Missile Crisis117Ch. 4Redundancy and Reliability: The 1968 Thule Bomber Accident156Ch. 5Learning by Trial and Terror204Ch. 6The Limits of Safety250Index281
The Limits of Safety
The Perils of Proliferation
The Limits of Safety
Organized for Accidents
Responses and Reflections
Hostages of Each Other
The Spread of Nuclear Weapons
If the build-up of nuclear weapons was a significant factor in maintaining the long peace between the United States and the Soviet Union, will the spread of nuclear weapons beyond these two superpowers stabilize or disrupt international relations. In this book, two scholars of international politics debate the issue. Kenneth Waltz argues that fear of the spread of nuclear weapons is unfounded - may be better. Nuclear proliferation may be a stabil…
The Limits of Safety
Political science (63 obras) · Law (48 obras) · Nuclear Issues and Defense (43 obras) · Law (40 obras) · Sociology (30 obras) · Nuclear weapon (29 obras) · Politics (21 obras) · Computer Science (18 obras) · Economics (17 obras) · International Relations and Foreign Policy (17 obras)