Arkadiusz Wiśniowski
Datos Biográficos
| ID | 99813 |
|---|---|
| NOMBRE | Arkadiusz Wiśniowski |
| NOMBRES | Arkadiusz |
| APELLIDO | Wiśniowski |
| FIRMA | WIŚNIOWSKI A |
| AFILIACIONES | University of Manchester |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-7567-3600 |
| VERIFICADO | Sí |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 20 |
| TOTAL DE CITAS | 45 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 20 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMER AÑO DE PUBLICACIÓN | 2013 |
| AÑO MÁS RECIENTE DE PUBLICACIÓN | 2026 |
| ÍNDICE H | 4 |
Broadening climate migration research across impacts, adaptation and mitigation
Bayesian multidimensional mortality reconstruction
A review and evaluation of internal migration forecasting models
Recognizing that internal migration is an important source of error in population projections, we evaluate 21 forecasts from five classes of methods: (1) average of the most recent flows; (2) time-series econometric models with and without external factors; (3) machine-learning-based gradient boosting models; (4) multiplicative component and gravity-type models; and (5) average of all forecasts. We forecast bilateral interstate migration flows in…
A flexible model for reconstructing education-specific fertility rates
Background: Accurate and harmonized estimates of education-specific fertility rates are crucial for understanding the past and projecting the future human population. Yet fertility estimates derived from demographic surveys that collect detailed fertility histories often do not align with the reliable and widely used United Nations (UN) World Population Prospects. This inconsistency means that the choice of data source can affect research outcome…
Estimating and Conditional Forecasting Bilateral Migration Flows Between South America and Europe, 1985–2050
South America and Europe have a history of reversals in the directionality of migration. While South America was a major destination for European migrants in the early twentieth century, migration flows have reversed in recent decades, with increasing South American emigration to Europe. However, inconsistencies in bilateral migration data hinder empirical assessments of migration systems between these regions. This study addresses this gap by (1…
Multiregional Population Forecasting
In this article, we extend the multiregional cohort-component population projection model developed by Andrei Rogers and colleagues in the 1960s and 1970s to be fully probabilistic. The projections are based on forecasts of age-, sex- and region-specific fertility, mortality, interregional migration, immigration and emigration. The approach is unified by forecasting each demographic component of change by using a combination of log-linear models …
Integrating Traditional and Social Media Data to Predict Bilateral Migrant Stocks in the European Union
Although up-to-date information on the nature and extent of migration within the European Union (EU) is important for policymaking, timely and reliable statistics on the number of EU citizens residing in or moving across other member states are difficult to obtain. In this paper, we develop a statistical model that integrates data on EU migrant stocks using traditional sources such as census, population registers and Labour Force Survey, with nov…
The estimation of age and sex profiles for international migration amongst countries in the Asia‐Pacific region
Information on the age and sex patterns of international migration occurring amongst countries in the Asia‐Pacific region is important for researchers and policymakers to understand the contributions of migration towards demographic, economic and social changes. However, despite its importance, statistics on the age and sex patterns are largely absent and, where they do exist, there are considerable differences in measurement and data collection …
Predicting Child-Labour Risks by Norms in India
This article aims to understand how social and gender norms affect child labour in India, which is mainly defined by a work-hours threshold. It develops a regression model using two datasets - the Indian Human Development Survey 2011/2012 and the World Value Survey India 2012 - to predict child-labour risks based on such norms. The gender and development approach provides a theoretical foundation for applying norms in association with social and …
Immigration, diversity and trust
A growing number of studies have shown adverse effects of ethnic diversity on social cohesion routed in ethnic categorical differences, competition and racial threat. We build on previous research by examining the hypothesis that cultural (language) differentiation leads to lower intra-neighbourhood trust through feelings of anomie. Our results, based on data from the 2009–2011 UK Citizenship survey and a multilevel modelling framework, do not of…
Remittances and food security in Bangladesh
Objective: To examine the association between remittances and food security in Bangladesh, controlling for other key factors. Design: The secondary data analysis was performed on the most recent (2016) nationally representative Household Income and Expenditure Survey. We used logistic regression models to measure the association between food security of the household and remittances received. The household food security was measured based on expe…
Estimating international migration flows for the Asia-Pacific region
Flows of international migration are needed in the Asia-Pacific region to understand the patterns and corresponding effects on demographic, social, and economic change across sending and receiving countries. A major challenge to this understanding is that nearly all of the countries in this region do not gather or produce statistics on flows of international migration. The only information that are widely available represent immigrant population …
Now-casting Romanian migration into the United Kingdom by using Google Search engine data
Short-term forecasts of international migration are often based on data that are incomplete, biased, and reported with delays. There is also a scarcity of migration forecasts based on combined traditional and new forms of data
A Bayesian Estimation of Child Labour in India
Child labour in India involves the largest number of children in any single country in the world. In 2011, 11.8 million children between the ages of 5 and 17 were main workers (those working more than 6 mo) according to the Indian Census. Our estimate of child labour using a combined-data approach is slightly higher than that: 13.2 million (11.4–15.2 million) for ages 5 to 17. There are various opinions on how best to measure the prevalence of ch…
Hierarchical Modelling of Covid-19 Death Risk in India in the Early Phase of the Pandemic
We improve upon the modelling of India's pandemic vulnerability. Our model is multidisciplinary and recognises the nested levels of the epidemic. We create a model of the risk of severe COVID-19 and death, instead of a model of transmission. Our model allows for socio-demographic-group differentials in risk, obesity and underweight people, morbidity status and other conditioning regional and lifestyle factors. We build a hierarchical multilevel m…
Applying and testing a forecasting model for age and sex patterns of immigration and emigration
International migration flows are considered the most difficult demographic component to forecast and, for that reason, models for forecasting migration are few and relatively undeveloped. This is worrying because, in developed societies, international migration is often the largest component of population growth and most influential in debates about societal and economic change. In this paper, we address the need for better forecasting models of…
Migration from New-Accession Countries and Duration Expectancy in the EU-15
Bayesian Population Forecasting
In this article, we develop a fully integrated and dynamic Bayesian approach to forecast populations by age and sex. The approach embeds the Lee-Carter type models for forecasting the age patterns, with associated measures of uncertainty, of fertility, mortality, immigration, and emigration within a cohort projection model. The methodology may be adapted to handle different data types and sources of information. To illustrate, we analyze time ser…
Forecasting Scottish Migration in the Context of the 2014 Constitutional Change Debate
Migration to and from Scotland might be affected by the outcome of the 2014 Scottish referendum on the constitutional future of the United Kingdom. This potential change in migration has not been thoroughly analysed to date. The aim of this paper is thus to present a set of predictions of the possible effects of Scottish independence on internal and international migration. In particular, different sources of uncertainty of future migration flows…
Forecasting environmental migration to the United Kingdom
Bayesian Population Forecasting
In this article, we develop a fully integrated and dynamic Bayesian approach to forecast populations by age and sex. The approach embeds the Lee-Carter type models for forecasting the age patterns, with associated measures of uncertainty, of fertility, mortality, immigration, and emigration within a cohort projection model. The methodology may be adapted to handle different data types and sources of information. To illustrate, we analyze time ser…
Applying and testing a forecasting model for age and sex patterns of immigration and emigration
International migration flows are considered the most difficult demographic component to forecast and, for that reason, models for forecasting migration are few and relatively undeveloped. This is worrying because, in developed societies, international migration is often the largest component of population growth and most influential in debates about societal and economic change. In this paper, we address the need for better forecasting models of…
Estimating international migration flows for the Asia-Pacific region
Flows of international migration are needed in the Asia-Pacific region to understand the patterns and corresponding effects on demographic, social, and economic change across sending and receiving countries. A major challenge to this understanding is that nearly all of the countries in this region do not gather or produce statistics on flows of international migration. The only information that are widely available represent immigrant population …
Migration from New-Accession Countries and Duration Expectancy in the EU-15
Forecasting Scottish Migration in the Context of the 2014 Constitutional Change Debate
Migration to and from Scotland might be affected by the outcome of the 2014 Scottish referendum on the constitutional future of the United Kingdom. This potential change in migration has not been thoroughly analysed to date. The aim of this paper is thus to present a set of predictions of the possible effects of Scottish independence on internal and international migration. In particular, different sources of uncertainty of future migration flows…
Now-casting Romanian migration into the United Kingdom by using Google Search engine data
Short-term forecasts of international migration are often based on data that are incomplete, biased, and reported with delays. There is also a scarcity of migration forecasts based on combined traditional and new forms of data
A Bayesian Estimation of Child Labour in India
Child labour in India involves the largest number of children in any single country in the world. In 2011, 11.8 million children between the ages of 5 and 17 were main workers (those working more than 6 mo) according to the Indian Census. Our estimate of child labour using a combined-data approach is slightly higher than that: 13.2 million (11.4–15.2 million) for ages 5 to 17. There are various opinions on how best to measure the prevalence of ch…
Forecasting environmental migration to the United Kingdom
Integrating Traditional and Social Media Data to Predict Bilateral Migrant Stocks in the European Union
Although up-to-date information on the nature and extent of migration within the European Union (EU) is important for policymaking, timely and reliable statistics on the number of EU citizens residing in or moving across other member states are difficult to obtain. In this paper, we develop a statistical model that integrates data on EU migrant stocks using traditional sources such as census, population registers and Labour Force Survey, with nov…
The estimation of age and sex profiles for international migration amongst countries in the Asia‐Pacific region
Information on the age and sex patterns of international migration occurring amongst countries in the Asia‐Pacific region is important for researchers and policymakers to understand the contributions of migration towards demographic, economic and social changes. However, despite its importance, statistics on the age and sex patterns are largely absent and, where they do exist, there are considerable differences in measurement and data collection …
Predicting Child-Labour Risks by Norms in India
This article aims to understand how social and gender norms affect child labour in India, which is mainly defined by a work-hours threshold. It develops a regression model using two datasets - the Indian Human Development Survey 2011/2012 and the World Value Survey India 2012 - to predict child-labour risks based on such norms. The gender and development approach provides a theoretical foundation for applying norms in association with social and …
Hierarchical Modelling of Covid-19 Death Risk in India in the Early Phase of the Pandemic
We improve upon the modelling of India's pandemic vulnerability. Our model is multidisciplinary and recognises the nested levels of the epidemic. We create a model of the risk of severe COVID-19 and death, instead of a model of transmission. Our model allows for socio-demographic-group differentials in risk, obesity and underweight people, morbidity status and other conditioning regional and lifestyle factors. We build a hierarchical multilevel m…
Forecasting environmental migration to the United Kingdom
Forecasting Scottish Migration in the Context of the 2014 Constitutional Change Debate
Migration to and from Scotland might be affected by the outcome of the 2014 Scottish referendum on the constitutional future of the United Kingdom. This potential change in migration has not been thoroughly analysed to date. The aim of this paper is thus to present a set of predictions of the possible effects of Scottish independence on internal and international migration. In particular, different sources of uncertainty of future migration flows…
Bayesian Population Forecasting
In this article, we develop a fully integrated and dynamic Bayesian approach to forecast populations by age and sex. The approach embeds the Lee-Carter type models for forecasting the age patterns, with associated measures of uncertainty, of fertility, mortality, immigration, and emigration within a cohort projection model. The methodology may be adapted to handle different data types and sources of information. To illustrate, we analyze time ser…
Migration from New-Accession Countries and Duration Expectancy in the EU-15
Applying and testing a forecasting model for age and sex patterns of immigration and emigration
International migration flows are considered the most difficult demographic component to forecast and, for that reason, models for forecasting migration are few and relatively undeveloped. This is worrying because, in developed societies, international migration is often the largest component of population growth and most influential in debates about societal and economic change. In this paper, we address the need for better forecasting models of…
A Bayesian Estimation of Child Labour in India
Child labour in India involves the largest number of children in any single country in the world. In 2011, 11.8 million children between the ages of 5 and 17 were main workers (those working more than 6 mo) according to the Indian Census. Our estimate of child labour using a combined-data approach is slightly higher than that: 13.2 million (11.4–15.2 million) for ages 5 to 17. There are various opinions on how best to measure the prevalence of ch…
Hierarchical Modelling of Covid-19 Death Risk in India in the Early Phase of the Pandemic
We improve upon the modelling of India's pandemic vulnerability. Our model is multidisciplinary and recognises the nested levels of the epidemic. We create a model of the risk of severe COVID-19 and death, instead of a model of transmission. Our model allows for socio-demographic-group differentials in risk, obesity and underweight people, morbidity status and other conditioning regional and lifestyle factors. We build a hierarchical multilevel m…
Now-casting Romanian migration into the United Kingdom by using Google Search engine data
Short-term forecasts of international migration are often based on data that are incomplete, biased, and reported with delays. There is also a scarcity of migration forecasts based on combined traditional and new forms of data
Immigration, diversity and trust
A growing number of studies have shown adverse effects of ethnic diversity on social cohesion routed in ethnic categorical differences, competition and racial threat. We build on previous research by examining the hypothesis that cultural (language) differentiation leads to lower intra-neighbourhood trust through feelings of anomie. Our results, based on data from the 2009–2011 UK Citizenship survey and a multilevel modelling framework, do not of…
Remittances and food security in Bangladesh
Objective: To examine the association between remittances and food security in Bangladesh, controlling for other key factors. Design: The secondary data analysis was performed on the most recent (2016) nationally representative Household Income and Expenditure Survey. We used logistic regression models to measure the association between food security of the household and remittances received. The household food security was measured based on expe…
Estimating international migration flows for the Asia-Pacific region
Flows of international migration are needed in the Asia-Pacific region to understand the patterns and corresponding effects on demographic, social, and economic change across sending and receiving countries. A major challenge to this understanding is that nearly all of the countries in this region do not gather or produce statistics on flows of international migration. The only information that are widely available represent immigrant population …
The estimation of age and sex profiles for international migration amongst countries in the Asia‐Pacific region
Information on the age and sex patterns of international migration occurring amongst countries in the Asia‐Pacific region is important for researchers and policymakers to understand the contributions of migration towards demographic, economic and social changes. However, despite its importance, statistics on the age and sex patterns are largely absent and, where they do exist, there are considerable differences in measurement and data collection …
Predicting Child-Labour Risks by Norms in India
This article aims to understand how social and gender norms affect child labour in India, which is mainly defined by a work-hours threshold. It develops a regression model using two datasets - the Indian Human Development Survey 2011/2012 and the World Value Survey India 2012 - to predict child-labour risks based on such norms. The gender and development approach provides a theoretical foundation for applying norms in association with social and …
Estimating and Conditional Forecasting Bilateral Migration Flows Between South America and Europe, 1985–2050
South America and Europe have a history of reversals in the directionality of migration. While South America was a major destination for European migrants in the early twentieth century, migration flows have reversed in recent decades, with increasing South American emigration to Europe. However, inconsistencies in bilateral migration data hinder empirical assessments of migration systems between these regions. This study addresses this gap by (1…
Multiregional Population Forecasting
In this article, we extend the multiregional cohort-component population projection model developed by Andrei Rogers and colleagues in the 1960s and 1970s to be fully probabilistic. The projections are based on forecasts of age-, sex- and region-specific fertility, mortality, interregional migration, immigration and emigration. The approach is unified by forecasting each demographic component of change by using a combination of log-linear models …
Integrating Traditional and Social Media Data to Predict Bilateral Migrant Stocks in the European Union
Although up-to-date information on the nature and extent of migration within the European Union (EU) is important for policymaking, timely and reliable statistics on the number of EU citizens residing in or moving across other member states are difficult to obtain. In this paper, we develop a statistical model that integrates data on EU migrant stocks using traditional sources such as census, population registers and Labour Force Survey, with nov…
Broadening climate migration research across impacts, adaptation and mitigation
Bayesian multidimensional mortality reconstruction
A review and evaluation of internal migration forecasting models
Recognizing that internal migration is an important source of error in population projections, we evaluate 21 forecasts from five classes of methods: (1) average of the most recent flows; (2) time-series econometric models with and without external factors; (3) machine-learning-based gradient boosting models; (4) multiplicative component and gravity-type models; and (5) average of all forecasts. We forecast bilateral interstate migration flows in…
A flexible model for reconstructing education-specific fertility rates
Background: Accurate and harmonized estimates of education-specific fertility rates are crucial for understanding the past and projecting the future human population. Yet fertility estimates derived from demographic surveys that collect detailed fertility histories often do not align with the reliable and widely used United Nations (UN) World Population Prospects. This inconsistency means that the choice of data source can affect research outcome…
Economics (13 obras) · Geography (12 obras) · Population (9 obras) · Sociology (9 obras) · Demography (7 obras) · Demography (7 obras) · Demographic economics (6 obras) · Econometrics (6 obras) · Migration and Labor Dynamics (6 obras) · Emigration (5 obras)