Local Ceasefires and De-escalation

Evidence From the Syrian Civil War

Datos Bibliográficos

ID10071514
AutoresMagnus Lundgren (0000-0002-9961-3645, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden, autor de correspondencia), I Svensson (0000-0002-1242-4180, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden), Doğukan Cansın Karakuş (0000-0001-5441-8750, European Centre for Minority Issues)
Año2023
Volumen67
Número7-8
Páginas1350-1375
Fecha de publicación2023-01-09
Peer ReviewedSí
Open AccessSí
TipoARTICLE
RevistaJournal of Conflict Resolution (JOURNAL)
Identificadores de la revistaISSN: 0022-0027 • E-ISSN: 1552-8766
EditorialSAGE Publishing (PUBLISHER • US)
DOI10.1177/00220027221148655
OpenAlexW4313898186
IdiomaEN
Citas recibidas2
Referencias citadas42

Local ceasefire agreements are prevalent in modern civil wars, but we know little about their impact. This study analyzes geo-referenced data on 145 local ceasefire agreements declared during the Syrian Civil War, 2011-2019, exploring their short- and long-term effects on the intensity of armed violence. Drawing on scholarship on gradual confidence-building processes, we theorize the conditions under which local ceasefire agreements may generate trust and reduce conflict intensity. Using interrupted time-series analysis and spatial panel regression, we examine factors relating to the design and strategic context of ceasefire agreements. We find that local ceasefire agreements can trigger both escalation and de-escalation in the short term. De-escalatory outcomes are more likely in the long-term, when ceasefire signatories share a history of previous interaction, and when ceasefires are implemented in a stepwise fashion. We also find evidence of spatial diffusion: local ceasefire agreements in one area reduce conflict intensity in neighboring areas

Context (archaeology · Geography · Political science · Scholarship · Spanish Civil War · Law · Peacebuilding and International Security · Political Conflict and Governance · Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence