Probability and Utility Estimates for Racetrack Bettors

Datos Bibliográficos

ID10176136
AutoresMukhtar M Ali (autor de correspondencia)
Año1977
Volumen85
Número4
Páginas803-815
Fecha de publicación1977-08-01
Peer ReviewedSí
Open AccessNo
TipoARTICLE
RevistaJournal of Political Economy (JOURNAL)
Identificadores de la revistaISSN: 0022-3808 • E-ISSN: 1537-534X
EditorialUniversity of Chicago Press (PUBLISHER • US)
DOI10.1086/260600
OpenAlexW2011253855
IdiomaEN
Citas recibidas41
Referencias citadas1

Subjective and estimated objective winning probabilities are obtained from 20,247 harness horse races. It is shown that subjectively a horse with a low winning probability is exaggerated and one with a high probability of winning is depressed. Various hypotheses characterizing the bettors' behavior to explain the observed subjective-objective probability relation are explored. Under some simplified assumptions, a utility of wealth function of a decision maker is derived, and a quantitative summary measure of his risk attitude is defined. Attitude toward risk of a representative bettor is examined. It is found that he is a risk lover and tends to take more risk as his capital dwindles

Actuarial science · Decision maker · Econometrics · Economics · Expected utility hypothesis · Function (biology · Mathematical economics · Operations research · Statistics · Subjective expected utility · Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics · Economics of Agriculture and Food Markets · Mathematics · Sports Analytics and Performance