The Nature of Countercyclical Income Risk
Datos Bibliográficos
| ID | 10176554 |
|---|---|
| Autores | Fatih Guvenen (Twin Cities Orthopedics), Serdar Ozkan (0000-0001-6364-9606, Federal Reserve), Jae Song (United States Social Security Administration) |
| Año | 2014 |
| Volumen | 122 |
| Número | 3 |
| Páginas | 621-660 |
| Fecha de publicación | 2014-06-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Sí |
| Open Access | No |
| Tipo | ARTICLE |
| Revista | Journal of Political Economy (JOURNAL) |
| Identificadores de la revista | ISSN: 0022-3808 • E-ISSN: 1537-534X |
| Editorial | University of Chicago Press (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1086/675535 |
| OpenAlex | W2105529635 |
| Idioma | EN |
| Citas recibidas | 33 |
| Referencias citadas | 26 |
We study business cycle variation in individual earnings risk using a confidential and very large data set from the US Social Security Administration. Contrary to past research, we find that the variance of idiosyncratic shocks is not countercyclical. Instead, it is the left-skewness of shocks that is strongly countercyclical: during recessions, large upward earnings movements become less likely, whereas large drops in earnings become more likely. Second, we find that the fortunes during recessions are predictable by observable characteristics before the recession. Finally, the cyclicality of earnings risk is dramatically different for the top 1 percent compared with the rest of the population
Business cycle · Demographic economics · Earnings · Econometrics · Economics · Macroeconomics · Monetary economics · Population · Recession · Rest (music · Skewness · Social security · Variance (accounting · Finance · Financial Literacy, Pension, Retirement Analysis · Housing Market and Economics · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
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| Obras citantes distintas | 33 |
|---|---|
| Citas por año | 2,75 |
| Intervalo de citas | 2014 - 2026 (13) |
| Velocidad de citación | current |
| Altamente citado | No |
| Tipos de cita | Neutras: 32 |