Demand-side decarbonization and electrification

EMF 35 JMIP study

Datos Bibliográficos

ID12950352
AutoresShogo Sakamoto (0000-0001-8415-8945, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, autor de correspondencia), Yu Nagai (0000-0002-2117-7054, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry), M Sugiyama (0000-0002-2038-1045, The University of Tokyo), Shinichiro Fujimori (0000-0001-7897-1796, National Institute for Environmental Studies), Etsushi Kato (0000-0001-8814-804X, Institute of Applied Energy), Ryōichi Komiyama (0000-0002-0398-4514, The University of Tokyo), Yuhji Matsuo (0000-0002-2163-1835, The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan), Ken Oshiro (0000-0001-6720-409X, Kyoto University), Diego Silva Herran (0000-0001-5484-4442, National Institute for Environmental Studies)
Año2021
Volumen16
Número2
Páginas395-410
Fecha de publicación2021-03-01
Peer ReviewedSí
Open AccessSí
TipoARTICLE
RevistaSustainability Science (JOURNAL)
Identificadores de la revistaISSN: 1862-4057 • E-ISSN: 1862-4065
EditorialSpringer Science+Business Media (PUBLISHER • DE)
DOI10.1007/s11625-021-00935-w
OpenAlexW3133981265
IdiomaEN
Citas recibidas6
Referencias citadas43

Japan’s long-term strategy submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change emphasizes the importance of improving the electrification rates to reducing GHG emissions. Using the five models participating in Energy Modeling Forum 35 Japan Model Intercomparison project (JMIP), we focused on the demand-side decarbonization and analyzed the final energy composition required to achieve 80% reductions in GHGs by 2050 in Japan. The model results show that the electricity share in final energy use (electrification rate) needs to reach 37–66% in 2050 (26% in 2010) to achieve the emissions reduction of 80%. The electrification rate increases mainly due to switching from fossil fuel end-use technologies (i.e. oil water heater, oil stove and combustion-engine vehicles) to electricity end-use technologies (i.e. heat pump water heater and electric vehicles). The electricity consumption in 2050 other than AIM/Hub ranged between 840 and 1260 TWh (AIM/Hub: 1950TWh), which is comparable to the level seen in the last 10 years (950–1035 TWh). The pace at which electrification rate must be increased is a challenge. The model results suggest to increase the electrification pace to 0.46–1.58%/yr from 2030 to 2050. Neither the past electrification pace (0.30%/year from 1990 to 2010) nor the outlook of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (0.15%/year from 2010 to 2030) is enough to reach the suggested electrification rates in 2050. Therefore, more concrete measures to accelerate dissemination of electricity end-use technologies across all sectors need to be established

Economics · Electricity · Electrification · Environmental economics · Environmental protection · Geography · Natural resource economics · Pace · Electric Vehicles and Infrastructure · Energy and Environment Impacts · Engineering · Environmental Impact and Sustainability · Environmental Science