IMF lending arrangements in emerging and developing countries – participation and prediction

Datos Bibliográficos

ID15067846
AutoresRamona Orăștean (0000-0001-9881-9636, Department of Finance-Accounting, ‘Lucian Blaga’ University, Sibiu, Romania), Silvia Mărginean (0000-0003-1265-4506, Department of Management, Marketing and Business Administration, ‘Lucian Blaga’ University, Sibiu, Romania, autor de correspondencia), Claudiu Opreana (Department of Finance-Accounting, ‘Lucian Blaga’ University, Sibiu, Romania)
Año2016
Volumen29
Número1
Páginas446-458
Fecha de publicación2016-01-01
Peer ReviewedSí
Open AccessSí
TipoARTICLE
RevistaEconomic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja (JOURNAL)
Identificadores de la revistaISSN: 1331-677X • E-ISSN: 1848-9664
EditorialInforma UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1080/1331677x.2016.1174389
OpenAlexW2348602897
IdiomaEN
Referencias citadas28

The literature on determinants of International Monetary Fund (IMF) interventions in emerging and developing countries shows that the IMF’s decisions are determined by political and economic causes. This article empirically investigates economic factors, showing that a country’s probability to sign an IMF arrangement can be predicted by looking at a core group of macroeconomic variables. Using discriminant analysis we develop a score function that allows us to predict a country’s future participation in IMF programmes. The study covers 153 emerging and developing countries, over more than 30 years (1980–2011) and 654 agreements, for both non-concessional and concessional loans. The proposed tools are simple, consistent and relevant and they can be used both to monitor an IMF country and its economic development in real time and to forecast future demand for IMF aid

Business · Developing country · Development economics · Economic growth · Economics · Emerging markets · International economics · Macroeconomics · Political science · Politics · Economic Growth and Development · International Development and Aid · Poverty, Education, and Child Welfare