Quantifying Projected Heat Mortality Impacts under 21st-Century Warming Conditions for Selected European Countries
Datos Bibliográficos
| ID | 15464610 |
|---|---|
| Autores | Vladimir Kendrovski (0000-0002-8079-3391, United Nations University, autor de correspondencia), Michela Baccini (0000-0002-2619-2130, University of Florence), Gerardo Sánchez Martínez (0000-0002-3290-6195, United Nations University), Tanja Wolf (United Nations University), Elizabet Paunovic (United Nations University), Bettina Menne (0000-0002-3135-2290, United Nations University) |
| Año | 2017 |
| Volumen | 14 |
| Número | 7 |
| Páginas | 729-729 |
| Fecha de publicación | 2017-07-05 |
| Peer Reviewed | Sí |
| Open Access | Sí |
| Tipo | ARTICLE |
| Revista | International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health (JOURNAL) |
| Identificadores de la revista | ISSN: 1661-7827 • E-ISSN: 1660-4601 |
| Editorial | Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (PUBLISHER • CH) |
| DOI | 10.3390/ijerph14070729 |
| PMID | 28678192 |
| OpenAlex | W2727680178 |
| Idioma | EN |
| Citas recibidas | 9 |
| Referencias citadas | 32 |
Under future warming conditions, high ambient temperatures will have a significant impact on population health in Europe. The aim of this paper is to quantify the possible future impact of heat on population mortality in European countries, under different climate change scenarios. We combined the heat-mortality function estimated from historical data with meteorological projections for the future time laps 2035-2064 and 2071-2099, developed under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. We calculated attributable deaths (AD) at the country level. Overall, the expected impacts will be much larger than the impacts we would observe if apparent temperatures would remain in the future at the observed historical levels. During the period 2071-2099, an overall excess of 46,690 and 117,333 AD per year is expected under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively, in addition to the 16,303 AD estimated under the historical scenario. Mediterranean and Eastern European countries will be the most affected by heat, but a non-negligible impact will be still registered in North-continental countries. Policies and plans for heat mitigation and adaptation are needed and urgent in European countries in order to prevent the expected increase of heat-related deaths in the coming decades
Biology · Climate change · Climate model · Climatology · Economics · Environmental health · Environmental protection · Excess mortality · Extreme heat · Geography · Mediterranean climate · Natural resource economics · Population · Representative Concentration Pathways · Air Quality and Health Impacts · Climate Change and Health Impacts · Environmental Science · Global Health Care Issues · Medicine · Ecology
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| Obras citantes distintas | 9 |
|---|---|
| Citas por año | 1,13 |
| Intervalo de citas | 2018 - 2025 (8) |
| Velocidad de citación | recent |
| Altamente citado | No |
| Tipos de cita | Neutras: 9 |