Climate Change is Likely to Worsen the Public Health Threat of Diarrheal Disease in Botswana

Datos Bibliográficos

ID15473258
AutoresKathleen A Alexander (0000-0001-7338-5341, Virginia Tech, autor de correspondencia), Kathleen Alexander (Fisheries and Wildlife Conservation, Virginia Tech, 100 Cheatham Hall, Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA), Marcos Carzolio (Virginia Tech), Douglas G Goodin (0000-0003-0062-924X, Kansas State University), Douglas Goodin (Kansas State University), Eric A Vance (0000-0001-5545-1878, Virginia Tech)
Año2013
Volumen10
Número4
Páginas1202-1230
Fecha de publicación2013-03-26
Peer ReviewedSí
Open AccessSí
TipoARTICLE
RevistaInternational Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health (JOURNAL)
Identificadores de la revistaISSN: 1661-7827 • E-ISSN: 1660-4601
EditorialMultidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (PUBLISHER • CH)
DOI10.3390/ijerph10041202
PMID23531489
PMCIDPMC3709313
OpenAlexW2102591853
IdiomaEN
Citas recibidas15
Referencias citadas88

Diarrheal disease is an important health challenge, accounting for the majority of childhood deaths globally. Climate change is expected to increase the global burden of diarrheal disease but little is known regarding climate drivers, particularly in Africa. Using health data from Botswana spanning a 30-year period (1974-2003), we evaluated monthly reports of diarrheal disease among patients presenting to Botswana health facilities and compared this to climatic variables. Diarrheal case incidence presents with a bimodal cyclical pattern with peaks in March (ANOVA p < 0.001) and October (ANOVA p < 0.001) in the wet and dry season, respectively. There is a strong positive autocorrelation (p < 0.001) in the number of reported diarrhea cases at the one-month lag level. Climatic variables (rainfall, minimum temperature, and vapor pressure) predicted seasonal diarrheal with a one-month lag in variables (p < 0.001). Diarrheal case incidence was highest in the dry season after accounting for other variables, exhibiting on average a 20% increase over the yearly mean (p < 0.001). Our analysis suggests that forecasted climate change increases in temperature and decreases in precipitation may increase dry season diarrheal disease incidence with hot, dry conditions starting earlier and lasting longer. Diarrheal disease incidence in the wet season is likely to decline. Our results identify significant health-climate interactions, highlighting the need for an escalated public health focus on controlling diarrheal disease in Botswana. Study findings have application to other arid countries in Africa where diarrheal disease is a persistent public health problem

Biology · Climate change · Diarrhea · Diarrheal disease · Diarrheal diseases · Disease · Economics · Environmental health · Geography · Public health · Socioeconomics · Child Nutrition and Water Access · Climate Change and Health Impacts · Global Health Care Issues · Medicine · Ecology