The contribution of emission sources to the future air pollution disease burden in China

Datos Bibliográficos

ID15547762
AutoresLuke Conibear (0000-0003-2801-8862, University of Leeds, autor de correspondencia), Carly Reddington (0000-0002-5990-4966, University of Leeds), Ben Silver (0000-0003-0395-0637, University of Leeds), S R Arnold (0000-0002-4881-5685, University of Leeds), Steven T Turnock (0000-0002-0036-4627, Met Office), Zbigniew Klimont (0000-0003-2630-198X, Met Office), Dominick V Spracklen (0000-0002-7551-4597, University of Leeds)
Año2022
Volumen17
Número6
Páginas064027-064027
Fecha de publicación2022-05-13
Peer ReviewedSí
Open AccessSí
TipoARTICLE
RevistaEnvironmental Research Letters (JOURNAL)
Identificadores de la revistaISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326
EditorialIOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/ac6f6f
OpenAlexW4280613995
IdiomaEN
Citas recibidas3
Referencias citadas81

Air pollution exposure is a leading public health problem in China. Despite recent air quality improvements, fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) exposure remains large, the associated disease burden is substantial, and population ageing is projected to increase the susceptibility to disease. Here, we used emulators of a regional chemical transport model to quantify the impacts of future emission scenarios on air pollution exposure in China. We estimated how key emission sectors contribute to these future health impacts from air pollution exposure. We found that PM 2.5 exposure declines in all scenarios across China over 2020–2050, with reductions of 15% under current air quality legislation, 36% when exploiting the full potential of air pollutant emission reduction technologies, and 39% when that technical mitigation potential is combined with emission controls for climate mitigation. However, population ageing means that the PM 2.5 disease burden under current legislation (CLE) increases by 17% in 2050 relative to 2020. In comparison to CLE in 2050, the application of the best air pollution technologies provides substantial health benefits, reducing the PM 2.5 disease burden by 16%, avoiding 536 600 (95% uncertainty interval, 95UI: 497 800–573 300) premature deaths per year. These public health benefits are mainly due to reductions in industrial (43%) and residential (30%) emissions. Climate mitigation efforts combined with the best air pollution technologies leads to an additional 2% reduction in the PM 2.5 disease burden, avoiding 57 000 (95UI: 52 800–61 100) premature deaths per year. Up to 90% of the 2020–2050 reductions in PM 2.5 exposure are already achieved by 2030, assuming efficient implementation and enforcement of currently committed air quality policies in key sectors. Achieving reductions in PM 2.5 exposure and the associated disease burden after 2030 will require further tightening of emission limits for regulated sectors, addressing other sources including agriculture and waste management, and international coordinated action to mitigate air pollution across Asia

Air pollution · Air quality index · Burden of disease · China · Disease burden · Environmental health · Environmental protection · Geography · Meteorology · Natural resource economics · Particulates · Population · Public health · Air Quality and Health Impacts · Energy and Environment Impacts · Energy, Environment, Economic Growth · Environmental Science · Medicine · Pollution