Drivers and patterns of land biosphere carbon balance reversal
Datos Bibliográficos
The carbon balance of the land biosphere is the result of complex interactions between land, atmosphere and oceans, including climatic change, carbon dioxide fertilization and land-use change. While the land biosphere currently absorbs carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, this carbon balance might be reversed under climate and land-use change ('carbon balance reversal'). A carbon balance reversal would render climate mitigation much more difficult, as net negative emissions would be needed to even stabilize atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We investigate the robustness of the land biosphere carbon sink under different socio-economic pathways by systematically varying climate sensitivity, spatial patterns of climate change and resulting land-use changes. For this, we employ a modelling framework designed to account for all relevant feedback mechanisms by coupling the integrated assessment model IMAGE with the process-based dynamic vegetation, hydrology and crop growth model LPJmL. We find that carbon balance reversal can occur under a broad range of forcings and is connected to changes in tree cover and soil carbon mainly in northern latitudes. These changes are largely a consequence of vegetation responses to varying climate and only partially of land-use change and the rate of climate change. Spatial patterns of climate change as deduced from different climate models, substantially determine how much pressure in terms of global warming and land-use change the land biosphere will tolerate before the carbon balance is reversed. A reversal of the land biosphere carbon balance can occur as early as 2030, although at very low probability, and should be considered in the design of so-called peak-and-decline strategies
Atmospheric sciences · Biosphere · Biosphere model · Carbon cycle · Carbon sink · Climate change · Ecosystem · Global change · Greenhouse gas · Land use · Land use, land-use change and forestry · Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics · Climate variability and models · Environmental Science · Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics · Ecology · Geology
Harmonization of global land use change and management for the period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6
Balancing trade-offs between ecosystem services in Germany’s forests under climate change
Quantifying synergies and trade-offs in the global water-land-food-climate nexus using a multi-model scenario approach
Critical adjustment of land mitigation pathways for assessing countries’ climate progress
Reducing sectoral hard-to-abate emissions to limit reliance on carbon dioxide removal
The climate change mitigation potential of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage
Mapping the yields of lignocellulosic bioenergy crops from observations at the global scale
Land Use Transition and Eco-Environmental Effects in Karst Mountain Area Based on Production-Living-Ecological Space
Energy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm
Exploring SSP land-use dynamics using the Image model
Identifying regional drivers of future land-based biodiversity footprints
Quantifying food security and mitigation risks consequential to climate change impacts on crop yields
Trade-offs between water needs for food, utilities, and the environment—a nexus quantification at different scales
Potential strong contribution of future anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change to the terrestrial carbon cycle
Global sustainability scenarios lead to regionally different outcomes for terrestrial biodiversity
Wind mediates the responses of net ecosystem carbon balance to climatic change in a temperate semiarid steppe of Northern China
A predictive modeling framework for carbon sink-source dynamics in urban agglomerations
Heterogeneity analysis of food supply-demand patterns and land carbon loss under different dietary structures in China
A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests
Modelling the role of agriculture for the 20th century global terrestrial carbon balance
Land-use change trajectories up to 2050
Contribution of semi-arid ecosystems to interannual variability of the global carbon cycle
Quantifying and mapping the human appropriation of net primary production in earth's terrestrial ecosystems
Rcp2.6
Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 °C
Climate–Carbon Cycle Feedback Analysis
Emulating coupled atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, Magicc6 – Part 1
Global response of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to CO 2 and climate change
Climate change effects on agriculture
A Large and Persistent Carbon Sink in the World’s Forests
Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison
Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model
A multi-model analysis of risk of ecosystem shifts under climate change
Potential influence of climate-induced vegetation shifts on future land use and associated land carbon fluxes in Northern Eurasia
Climate-change impact potentials as an alternative to global warming potentials
Global socioeconomic carbon stocks in long-lived products 1900–2008
The Copenhagen Accord
The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate change analysis
A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities
| Obras citantes distintas | 18 |
|---|---|
| Citas por año | 1,8 |
| Intervalo de citas | 2016 - 2025 (10) |
| Velocidad de citación | recent |
| Altamente citado | No |
| Tipos de cita | Neutras: 18 |