Detecting a forced signal in satellite-era sea-level change

Datos Bibliográficos

ID15548871
AutoresKristin Richter (0000-0002-0200-8765, Universität Innsbruck, autor de correspondencia), Benoît Meyssignac (0000-0001-6325-9843, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique), Aimée B A Slangen (0000-0001-6268-6683, Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research), Angélique Melet (0000-0003-3888-8159, Mercator Ocean (France)), John Church (0000-0002-7037-8194, UNSW Sydney), John A Church, Xavier Fettweis (0000-0002-4140-3813, University of Liège), Ben Marzeion (0000-0002-6185-3539, University of Bremen), Cécile Agosta (0000-0003-4091-1653, University of Liège), Stefan Ligtenberg (0000-0002-6195-5420, Utrecht University), Stefan R M Ligtenberg, Giorgio Spada (0000-0001-7615-4709, University of Urbino), Matthew D Palmer (0000-0001-7422-198X, Met Office), Christopher D Roberts (0000-0002-2958-6637, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), Nicolas Champollion (0000-0001-7988-4694, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
Año2020
Volumen15
Número9
Páginas094079-094079
Fecha de publicación2020-06-01
Peer ReviewedSí
Open AccessSí
TipoARTICLE
RevistaEnvironmental Research Letters (JOURNAL)
Identificadores de la revistaISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326
EditorialIOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/ab986e
OpenAlexW3033994826
IdiomaEN
Citas recibidas1
Referencias citadas48

In this study, we compare the spatial patterns of simulated geocentric sea-level change to observations from satellite altimetry over the period 1993–2015 to assess whether a forced signal is detectable. This is challenging, as on these time scales internal variability plays an important role and may dominate the observed spatial patterns of regional sea-level change. Model simulations of regional sea-level change associated with sterodynamic sea level, atmospheric loading, glacier mass change, and ice-sheet surface mass balance changes are combined with observations of groundwater depletion, reservoir storage, and dynamic ice-sheet mass changes. The resulting total geocentric regional sea-level change is then compared to independent measurements from satellite altimeter observations. The detectability of the climate-forced signal is assessed by comparing the model ensemble mean of the ‘historical’ simulations with the characteristics of sea-level variability in pre-industrial control simulations. To further minimize the impact of internal variability, zonal averages were produced. We find that, in all ocean basins, zonally averaged simulated sea-level changes are consistent with observations within sampling uncertainties associated with simulated internal variability of the sterodynamic component. Furthermore, the simulated zonally averaged sea-level change cannot be explained by internal variability alone—thus we conclude that the observations include a forced contribution that is detectable at basin scales

Altimeter · Climate change · Climatology · Geodesy · Geomorphology · Glacier · Satellite · Sea level · Climate variability and models · Environmental Science · Geophysics and Gravity Measurements · Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes · Geology · Oceanography