A fundamental diagram of urbanization

Datos Bibliográficos

ID19083792
AutoresGiulia Carra (Institut de Physique Théorique), Marc Barthélemy (0000-0003-0890-9713, Institut de Physique Théorique, France; Centre d’Analyse et de Mathématique Sociales (CNRS/EHESS), France, autor de correspondencia)
Año2017
Volumen46
Número4
Páginas690-706
Fecha de publicación2017-08-16
Peer ReviewedSí
Open AccessSí
TipoARTICLE
RevistaEnvironment and Planning B Urban Analytics and City Science (JOURNAL)
Identificadores de la revistaISSN: 2399-8083 • E-ISSN: 2399-8091
EditorialSAGE Publishing (PUBLISHER • US)
DOI10.1177/2399808317724445
OpenAlexW2525668871
IdiomaEN
Citas recibidas4
Referencias citadas20

The process of urbanization is one of the most important phenomenon of our societies and it is only recently that the availability of massive amounts of geolocalized historical data allows us to address quantitatively some of its features. Here, we discuss how the number of buildings evolves with population and we show on different datasets (Chicago, 1930–2010; London, 1900–2015; New York City, 1790–2013; Paris, 1861–2011) that this ‘fundamental diagram’ evolves in a possibly universal way with three distinct phases. After an initial pre-urbanization phase, the first phase is a rapid growth of the number of buildings versus population. In a second regime, where residences are converted into another use (such as offices or stores for example), the population decreases while the number of buildings stays approximately constant. In another subsequent phase, the number of buildings and the population grow again and correspond to a re-densification of cities. We propose a stochastic model based on these simple mechanisms to reproduce the first two regimes and show that it is in excellent agreement with empirical observations. These results bring evidences for the possibility of constructing a minimal model that could serve as a tool for understanding quantitatively urbanization and the future evolution of cities

Diagram · Economic geography · Economic growth · Economics · Geography · Phase diagram · Phenomenon · Physics · Population · Sociology · Urbanization · Computer Science · Demography · Land Use and Ecosystem Services · Regional Economics and Spatial Analysis · Urban Design and Spatial Analysis