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Economic Dynamics of the Early Roman Empire

Insights from Lead Pollution, Coinage, Weather, and War

Datos Bibliográficos

ID19214239
AutoresLuigi Oddo (0000-0003-3955-1443, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, autor de correspondencia), Silvio Traverso (0000-0003-1128-1402, Università degli Studi del Piemonte Orientale “Amedeo Avogadro”), Koenraad Verboven (0000-0002-5124-422X, Ghent University Hospital)
Año2024
Volumen101
Páginas101765-101765
Fecha de publicación2024-01-01
Peer ReviewedSí
Open AccessSí
TipoARTICLE
RevistaExplorations in Economic History (JOURNAL)
Identificadores de la revistaISSN: 0014-4983 • E-ISSN: 1090-2457
EditorialElsevier BV (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1016/j.eeh.2026.101765
OpenAlexW4401534565
IdiomaEN
Referencias citadas49

This study examines the relationship between anthropogenic lead pollution recorded in Greenland ice cores and economic dynamics during the Pax Romana (27 BC–180 AD), a period of relative political, institutional and technological stability in the Early Roman Empire. Our findings reveal that approximately one-fourth of the annual variability in lead pollution during this period can be explained by summer temperatures, silver coin output, and warfare – three factors plausibly linked to fluctuations of the Empire’s economy. Using annual time-series analysis, we integrate high-resolution paleoclimatic, paleoenvironmental, and cliometric data to investigate short-run economic dynamics in an ancient society. Specifically, our results suggest that warmer summers, which likely boosted agricultural yields, were positively associated with increased economic activity. In contrast, higher production of silver coins and periods of warfare were associated with lower levels of lead emissions, suggesting that these factors were associated with periods of weaker aggregate economic activity. Our analysis also provides formal statistical support for the hypothesis that historical lead pollution levels contain valuable information about economic activity in ancient Europe, thereby corroborating a highly debated claim in the literature

Ancient history · Economic history · Economics · Economy · Empire · Lead (geology) · Lead pollution · Natural resource economics · Roman Empire · Ancient and Medieval Archaeology Studies · Ancient Mediterranean Archaeology and History · Archaeology and Historical Studies · Classical Antiquity Studies · Ecology · Environmental Science · Eurasian Exchange Networks · Geology · History · Pollution

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