Communicating Uncertainty in Intelligence and Other Professions

Recent events have focused new attention on the need for intelligence professionals to present alternative hypotheses to policymakers in a way that makes clear the uncertainties in the evaluation a

Business · Computer security · Intelligence analysis · Political science · Public relations · Computer Science · Intelligence, Security, War Strategy · Psychology

• Analytical Standards in the Intelligence Community

  Open Access•Derek Reinhold, Charles J Russo et al.•Journal of Strategic Security•2021

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• Analytic objectivity and science

  Stephen Marrin•Intelligence & National Security•2020

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• Visualizing versus verbalizing uncertainty in intelligence analysis

  Open Access•Mandeep K Dhami, Jessica K Witt et al.•Intelligence & National Security•2025

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• Uncertainty handling in estimative intelligence – challenges and requirements from both analyst and consumer perspectives

  Bjørn Gunnar M Isaksen, Ken R McNaught•Journal of Risk Research•2019

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• Uncertainty, Intelligence, and National Security Decisionmaking

  David R Mandel, Daniel Irwin•International Journal of…•2021

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• Intelligence in the Twitter Age

  Joshua Rovner•International Journal of…•2013

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• Analyzing Evidence and Its Chain of Custody

  David A Schum, Gheorghe Tecuci et al.•International Journal of…•2009

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• Competitive Intelligence Insights for Intelligence Measurement

  Rhiannon Gainor, France Bouthillier•International Journal of…•2014

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• Coordinating uncertainty in the political economy of cyber threat intelligence

  Open Access•Rebecca Slayton, Lilly Pijnenburg Muller et al.•Social Studies of Science•2025

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• The Influence of Prior Beliefs on Scientific Judgments of Evidence Quality

  Open Access•Jonathan J Koehler•Organizational Behavior and Human…•1993

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• Combining Quantitative and Qualitative Measures of Uncertainty in Model‐Based Environmental Assessment

  Open Access•J P van der Sluijs, Matthieu Craye et al.•Risk Analysis•2005

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• Intelligence Analysis and Judgmental Calibration

  Steven Rieber•International Journal of…•2004

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• Improving Intelligence Analysis by Looking to the Medical Profession

  Stephen Marrin, Jonathan D Clemente•International Journal of…•2005

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• Uncertainty

  Open Access•Michael G Morgan, M Granger Morgan et al.•Uncertainty•1990

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• Anchoring Devices in Science for Policy

  Open Access•J P van der Sluijs, Jeroen Van Der Sluijs et al.•Social Studies of Science•1998

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• The Fifth Branch

  Nelson W Polsby, Sheila Jasanoff•Contemporary Sociology A Journal…•1991

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• Manufacturing Uncertainty

  David Michaels, Celeste Monforton•American Journal of Public Health•2005

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• Forecasting Forpolicymaking in Thepost–coldwarperiod

  Stanley A Feder•Annual Review of Political Science•2002

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