Do People Listen to Cassandra? Persuasion and Accuracy in Geopolitical Forecasts

Datos Bibliográficos

ID21453501
AutoresYhonatan S Shemesh (0009-0007-8802-8997, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer-Sheva, Israel, autor de correspondencia), Avi Gamoran (0000-0002-8559-5941, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer-Sheva, Israel), David Leiser (0000-0003-1619-8106, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer-Sheva, Israel), Michael Gilead (0000-0002-7009-5223, Tel Aviv University)
Año2025
Páginas1461672251375500-1461672251375500
Fecha de publicación2025-10-17
Peer ReviewedSí
Open AccessSí
TipoARTICLE
RevistaPersonality and Social Psychology Bulletin (JOURNAL)
Identificadores de la revistaISSN: 0146-1672 • E-ISSN: 1552-7433
EditorialSAGE Publications (PUBLISHER • US)
DOI10.1177/01461672251375500
PMID41105022
OpenAlexW4415282899
IdiomaEN
Referencias citadas88

In a world marked by persistent uncertainty, accurately predicting the future is vital. While certain people (“superforecasters”) and practices (aggregation) can produce more accurate forecasts, the utility of these forecasts depends on whether they are persuasive enough to be heeded. This study investigates the relationship between persuasion and accuracy in geopolitical forecasts. In a forecasting competition, 153 forecasters predicted future global events and explained their rationales. Next, 474 evaluators rated these rationales for persuasiveness. Using a neural network–based language model, we found that although forecasting rationales contained valid cues for accuracy, evaluators were no more persuaded by accurate forecasts. Further analyses using large language models revealed that psychological attributes indicating expertise, trustworthiness, and emotional composure were associated with both persuasion and accuracy, while eloquence and confidence, though persuasive, were unrelated to accuracy. We conclude that people are sensitive to valid cues, but are misled by invalid ones, impairing overall calibration

Attitude change · Geopolitics · Motivated reasoning · Persuasion · Persuasive communication · Behavioral Health and Interventions · Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics · Social and Intergroup Psychology