Strategic Foresight for Sustainable Rural Landscapes
Balancing Environment and Society
Datos Bibliográficos
Rural landscapes are increasingly challenged by climate change, ecosystem degradation, and socio‐economic transitions, creating an urgent need for strategic foresight and scenario planning to guide sustainable development. This study integrates these approaches to identify key factors shaping the future of socio‐ecological systems and to develop targeted interventions by recognizing underlying trends, challenges, and potential drivers. The methodology combines the Delphi technique and structured brainstorming to identify critical socio‐ecological variables, followed by structural interaction analysis to assess their interrelationships. Influence and dependence analysis in both direct and indirect modes was applied to classify variables and evaluate their immediate and long‐term impacts within the system. Visualization tools, including influence and dependence maps, heatmap, and scatter plots matrix, revealed patterns and connections. The influence and dependence maps categorized variables into influential, dependent, independent, and dichotomous groups; heatmaps identified clusters of related factors and scatter plots matrix highlighted correlations within the broader context. Based on these findings, multiple future scenarios were formulated, outlining strategic pathways to enhance resilience by addressing interconnections among social, environmental, and governance factors. This foresight framework offers policymakers actionable strategies to mitigate environmental risks, optimize resource allocation, and strengthen community engagement. The findings offer key evidence for long‐term sustainability and resilience in rural areas, helping stakeholders manage socio‐ecological challenges amid climate uncertainty
Climate resilience · Corporate governance · Delphi method · Futures studies · Scenario planning · Strategic planning · Sustainability · Delphi Technique in Research · Sustainability and Climate Change Governance · Sustainable Agricultural Systems Analysis
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