Choosing the Lesser Evil
Forecasting Presidential Elections in Peru
Datos Bibliográficos
| ID | 21817239 |
|---|---|
| Autores | Moisés Arce (0000-0003-1535-2132, Tulane University), Sofia B Vera (0000-0003-4347-3302, University of Kansas) |
| Año | 2022 |
| Volumen | 11 |
| Número | 1 |
| Páginas | 1-26 |
| Fecha de publicación | 2022-06-22 |
| Open Access | Sí |
| Tipo | ARTICLE |
| Revista | Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública (JOURNAL) |
| Identificadores de la revista | ISSN: 1852-9003 • E-ISSN: 2660-700X |
| Editorial | Ediciones Universidad de Salamanca (PUBLISHER • ES) |
| DOI | 10.14201/rlop.25805 |
| OpenAlex | W3210856470 |
| Idioma | EN |
| Citas recibidas | 1 |
| Referencias citadas | 21 |
The Peruvian political landscape is dominated by the weakness of party organizations, the continuous rotation of political personalities, and, in turn, high electoral volatility and uncertainty. Nevertheless, we observe patterns of electoral competition that suggest candidates learn to capture the political center and compete over the continuation of an economic model that has sustained growth. We use this information to record the vote intention for the candidate viewed as the lesser evil. Our forecasting results predict a good share of the variation in political support for this candidate. The out-of-sample prediction also comes fairly close to the real electoral results. These findings provide some degree of electoral certainty in an area that, to date, remains understudied
Certainty · Econometrics · Economics · Personality psychology · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Presidential system · Law · Media Influence and Politics · Psychology · Social Psychology
Economic Models of Voting
Technocracy and Democracy in Latin America
Continuity by Surprise
Learning the Economic Vote
Popularity Function Forecasts for the 2005 UK General Election
Election Forecasting
The Utility of Unpacking Survey Bias in Multiparty Elections
Aids or cancer
A split decision
Presidential Support in a Context of Crisis and Recovery in Peru, 1985-2008
Political Violence and Presidential Approval in Peru
Counting on the Past or Investing in the Future? Economic and Political Accountability in Fujimori's Peru
Peru’s 2011 Elections
Peru
Presidential Vote Models
Picking the winner(s)
Forecasting the 2015 British election through party popularity functions
Back to the future? The 2006 Peruvian general election
Economic voting and political context
The 2001 presidential and congressional elections in Peru
Democracy without Parties? Political Parties and Regime Change in Fujimori's Peru
| Citas por año | 0,5 |
|---|---|
| Intervalo de citas | 2024 - 2024 (1) |
| Altamente citado | No |