Predicted Covid-19 fatality rates based on age, sex, comorbidities and health system capacity
Datos Bibliográficos
| ID | 21879438 |
|---|---|
| Autores | Selene Ghisolfi (0000-0002-9369-4448, Stockholm University), Ingvild Almås (0000-0002-6340-1384, Stockholm University), Justin Sandefur (0000-0002-2233-834X, Center for Global Development), Tillman von Carnap (Stockholm University), Jesse Heitner (0000-0002-5349-8311, San Antonio College), Tessa Bold (Stockholm University, autor de correspondencia) |
| Año | 2020 |
| Volumen | 5 |
| Número | 9 |
| Páginas | e003094 |
| Fecha de publicación | 2020-09-01 |
| Open Access | Sí |
| Tipo | ARTICLE |
| Revista | BMJ Global Health (JOURNAL) |
| Identificadores de la revista | ISSN: 2059-7908 • E-ISSN: 2059-7908 |
| Editorial | BMJ (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1136/bmjgh-2020-003094 |
| PMID | 32912856 |
| OpenAlex | W3084246468 |
| Idioma | EN |
| Citas recibidas | 12 |
| Referencias citadas | 14 |
Early reports suggest the fatality rate from COVID-19 varies greatly across countries, but non-random testing and incomplete vital registration systems render it impossible to directly estimate the infection fatality rate (IFR) in many low- and middle-income countries. To fill this gap, we estimate the adjustments required to extrapolate estimates of the IFR from high-income to lower-income regions. Accounting for differences in the distribution of age, sex and relevant comorbidities yields substantial differences in the predicted IFR across 21 world regions, ranging from 0.11% in Western Sub-Saharan Africa to 1.07% for high-income Asia Pacific. However, these predictions must be treated as lower bounds in low- and middle-income countries as they are grounded in fatality rates from countries with advanced health systems. To adjust for health system capacity, we incorporate regional differences in the relative odds of infection fatality from childhood respiratory syncytial virus. This adjustment greatly diminishes but does not entirely erase the demography-based advantage predicted in the lowest income settings, with regional estimates of the predicted COVID-19 IFR ranging from 0.37% in Western Sub-Saharan Africa to 1.45% for Eastern Europe
Case fatality rate · Environmental health · Geography · Logistic regression · Odds · Pandemic · Population · COVID-19 Clinical Research Studies · COVID-19 epidemiological studies · Demography · Medicine · Respiratory viral infections research
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| Citas por año | 2,4 |
|---|---|
| Intervalo de citas | 2021 - 2026 (6) |
| Altamente citado | No |