Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) and China's Export Fluctuation in the Post-pandemic Era

An Empirical Analysis based on the TVP-SV-VAR Model

Datos Bibliográficos

ID22073273
AutoresGuoheng Hu (0009-0005-3233-8916, Henan Normal University, autor de correspondencia), Shan Liu (0000-0002-8554-6306, Henan Normal University)
Año2021
Volumen9
Páginas788171-788171
Fecha de publicación2021-12-06
Peer ReviewedSí
Open AccessSí
TipoARTICLE
RevistaFrontiers in Public Health (JOURNAL)
Identificadores de la revistaISSN: 2296-2565 • E-ISSN: 2296-2565
EditorialFrontiers Media SA (PUBLISHER • CH)
DOI10.3389/fpubh.2021.788171
PMID34938713
OpenAlexW4200166137
IdiomaEN
Citas recibidas4
Referencias citadas22

In the COVID-19 pandemic, the bidirectional policy adopted by the governments to stimulate domestic economy and reinforce foreign trade control is making the trade environment abnormally complex. China is facing a new challenge in export trade growth. Based on the continuous monthly data from January 2002 to April 2021, this paper uses the time-varying TVP-SV-VAR model to study the impulse response of China's export trade to economic policy uncertainty (EPU). It is found that (1) on the whole, the shock of global EPU and China's EPU on China's export to the OBOR/RCEP member countries is time-varying, different, and structurally significant; (2) during the pandemic, EPU has a significant short-term negative shock on China's gross exports and export to OBOR/RCEP members, and this shock is especially big in the case of global EPU. In the post-pandemic era, China should strengthen pandemic control and economic risk monitoring, continue with execution of multilateral FTAs and create a sustainably stable export trade environment

Business · China · Economics · International economics · International trade · Pandemic · Political science · Economic and Technological Innovation · Energy, Environment, Economic Growth · Market Dynamics and Volatility · Medicine