The Polls and the 1995 Quebec Referendum

We examine 23v oter polls reported in the news media during the two-month period preceding the 1995 Quebec sov ereignty referendum. Contrary to common interpretations of the course of the referendum campaign, we find that there was a smooth and general increase in support for the sov ereignty option during this period, and that Lucien Bouchard's dramatic interv ention on behalf of the `yes' campaign on October 9 apparently had little e#ect onv oters' stated intentions. The same was true of other putativ ely consequentialev ents that transpired during the referendum campaign. We conclude that the pre-referendum polls slightly, but systematically, exaggerated thelev el of support for separation. An analysis of undecidedv oters suggests that there was a general decline in indecision during the course of the campaign. There was also substantialv ariation in percentages of undecidedv oters among polls, and among polling firms, only partly accounted for by di#erences that we were able to ide

Media studies · Political science · Politics · Referendum · Sociology · Canadian Identity and History · Law · Political Systems and Governance

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