Economic Depression of the Renaissance?. III

erhaps the most serious criticism which Professor Cipolla has levelled against our statistical apparatus lies in his notion of the 'increased demand for metallic money', by which he seems to mean that the commodity price of bullion rose, or, more simply, that prices fell. The evidence does suggest an increase in the purchasing power of gold and silver, at least in the agricultural sector; but it hardly damages the argument presented in conjunction with the trade figures (Graph V) in the original paper. Professor Cipolla does not contest the statement that the intrinsic value of the Genoese pound in I509 was only 25 per cent of its value in 1288, so he should not object to our next step. The recovery figure of I5I3 was reduced from 82 per cent to 2I per cent of the I294 peak in order to compensate for the bullion loss. This result was clearly labelled as tentative. Now, for the increase in the purchasing power of bullion to account entirely for the downward trend thus displayed, it would have been necessary for the price level to have fallen to one-fifth of the level attained in the late thirteenth century. If Professor Cipolla is prepared to offer such statistics, I will accept his criticism; unless, however, he proves that prices in I 513 were lower than one-fourth of the I 288 level, he must logically agree that my figures, as expressed in Graph V, over-estimate the extent of the recovery of the sixteenth century. More evidence is available in the case of the English figures. If we accept the figures of Phelps Brown and Hopkins for the price of a composite physical unit (i.e. a market-basket of goods), the increase in the purchasing power of money, not bullion, is not much in evidence. 1 Their price index in I405 is 99; in I480 it is I03. Professor Cipolla's own method would still require a reduction in the recovery level of the latter year, although not so large a one as I had suggested. Further, the price index is heavily weighted by agricultural goods wherein productivity may have increased because of land availability and where an inelastic demand probably caused a greater price fall than occurred in the manufactured goods sector. The use of such a deflator with regard to poundage figures is more than generous to our critic. No matter how generous we become, however, it is legitimate to inquire what pernicious effect my 'strange' monetary calculations could possibly have upon the series reflecting the number of ships entering the port of Dieppe. These figures are already in real terms on the graph and hence immune to monetary criticism. Professor Cipolla's rhetorical question as to the manner in which the capital

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