Climate Change and Stability of Urban Infrastructure in Russian Permafrost Regions
Prognostic Assessment based on GCM Climate Projections
Datos Bibliográficos
| ID | 4491085 |
|---|---|
| Autores | Nikolay I Shiklomanov (0000-0002-8609-0240, The George Washington University, Department of Geography, Washington, DC, USA), D A Streletskiy (0000-0003-2563-2664, State Hydrological Institute), Timothy B Swales (Earth Cryosphere Institute SB RAS, Tyumen, Russia), Vasily A Kokorev (Tyumen State Oil and Gas University, Tyumen, Russia), V Kokorev (0000-0001-7628-3674, University of Tyumen) |
| Año | 2017 |
| Volumen | 107 |
| Número | 1 |
| Páginas | 125-142 |
| Fecha de publicación | 2017-01-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Sí |
| Open Access | Sí |
| Tipo | ARTICLE |
| Revista | Geographical Review (JOURNAL) |
| Identificadores de la revista | ISSN: 0016-7428 • E-ISSN: 1931-0846 |
| Editorial | Informa UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1111/gere.12214 |
| OpenAlex | W2528582529 |
| Idioma | EN |
| Citas recibidas | 21 |
| Referencias citadas | 26 |
One of the most significant climate change impacts on arctic urban landscapes is the warming and degradation of permafrost, which negatively affects the structural integrity of infrastructure. We estimate potential changes in stability of Russian urban infrastructure built on permafrost in response to the projected climatic changes provided by six preselected General Circulation Models (GCMs) participated in the most recent Climate Model Inter‐comparison Project (CMIP5). The analysis was conducted for the entire extent of the Russian permafrost‐affected area. According to our analysis a significant (at least 25%) climate‐induced reduction in the urban infrastructure stability throughout the Russian permafrost region should be expected by the mid‐21st century. However, the high uncertainty, resulting from the GCM‐produced climate projections, prohibits definitive conclusion about the rate and magnitude of potential climate impacts on permafrost infrastructure. Results presented in this paper can serve as guidelines for developing adequate adaptation and mitigation strategy for Russian northern cities
Climate change · Climatology · GCM transcription factors · General Circulation Model · Geography · Permafrost · Physical geography · Stability (learning theory · Climate change and permafrost · Climate variability and models · Computer Science · Cryospheric studies and observations · Environmental Science · Geology
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| Obras citantes distintas | 21 |
|---|---|
| Citas por año | 2,33 |
| Intervalo de citas | 2017 - 2025 (9) |
| Velocidad de citación | recent |
| Altamente citado | No |
| Tipos de cita | Neutras: 21 |