Forecasting Global HIV-Aids Dynamics

In the light of the considerable biomathematical effort devoted to building models of the incidence of HIV and AIDS in communities, in this paper a multiregion specification is developed that includes a parsimonious cross-infection mechanism where high-risk and low-risk populations are distinguished by their promiscuity rates. The nature of this mixing is compared with some existing modelling formats, and some preliminary simulations are presented for the timing and spread of the epidemic in a sixteen-city global system

Econometrics · Economics · Management science · Physics · Statistical physics · Computer Science · COVID-19 epidemiological studies · Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models · Medicine · Psychology · Virology

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  Open Access•Markku Löytönen, Paula Maasilta•GeoJournal•1997

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• Preventative action and the diffusion of HIV/Aids

  Open Access•Frank Smyth, Fiona Smyth et al.•Progress in Human Geography•1996

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• Reconstructing the Space‐Time Structure of the HIV/Aids Epidemic for the Countries of Western Europe

  Open Access•Richard Thomas•Transactions of the Institute of…•2000

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• Modelling space-time HIV/Aids dynamics

  Open Access•Richard M Thomas, Richard Thomas•Social Science & Medicine•1996

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• Controlling HIV/Aids in Ireland

  Open Access•Frank Smyth, F M Smyth et al.•Environment and Planning A…•1996

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• Infectious Diseases of Humans

  Roxanne Marie Anderson, Roy M Anderson et al.•Infectious diseases of humans•1991

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• Carrier models for the simulation of Hodgkin's disease

  Open Access•R W Thomas•Social Science & Medicine•1988

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• Source region effects in epidemic disease modeling

  Open Access•R Thomas, Richard M Thomas•Papers of the Regional Science…•1993

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• The Slow Plague

  Steven Curti, Sarah Curtis et al.•Transactions of the Institute of…•1994

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• Sauer's 'Origins and Dispersals

  Peter Haggett•Transactions of the Institute of…•1992

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• Geomedical Systems

  Open Access•Wilbert M Gesler, Richard Thomas•Geographical Review•1994

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• Space-Time Interactions in Multiregion Disease Modelling

  Open Access•R W Thomas•Environment and Planning A…•1992

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• The Spatial Spread of the Aids Epidemic in Ohio

  Open Access•Emilio Casetti, C Cindy Fan•Environment and Planning A…•1991

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