How to Make Cognitive Illusions Disappear
"Beyond "Heuristics and Biases
Datos Bibliográficos
| ID | 5771119 |
|---|---|
| Autores | Gerd Gigerenzer (0000-0002-6163-5419, autor de correspondencia) |
| Año | 1991 |
| Volumen | 2 |
| Número | 1 |
| Páginas | 83-115 |
| Fecha de publicación | 1991-01-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Sí |
| Open Access | No |
| Tipo | ARTICLE |
| Revista | European Review of Social Psychology (JOURNAL) |
| Identificadores de la revista | ISSN: 1046-3283 • E-ISSN: 1479-277X |
| Editorial | Taylor & Francis (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1080/14792779143000033 |
| OpenAlex | W2151274689 |
| Idioma | EN |
| Citas recibidas | 177 |
| Referencias citadas | 53 |
Most so-called "errors" in probabilistic reasoning are in fact not violations of probability theory. Examples of such "errors" include overconfidence bias, conjunction fallacy, and base-rate neglect. Researchers have relied on a very narrow normative view, and have ignored conceptual distinctions-e.g. single case versus relative frequency-fundamental to probability theory. By recognizing and using these distinctions, however, we can make apparently stable "errors" disappear, reappear, or even invert. I suggest what a reformed understanding of judgments under uncertainty might look like
Confirmation bias · Fallacy · Heuristics · Overconfidence effect · Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics · Epistemology, Ethics, and Metaphysics · Philosophy and History of Science
Is military incompetence adaptive?
Is Military Incompetence Adaptive?
Cooperative strategies outside the laboratory — evidence from a long-term large-N-study in five countries
The epistemic responsibilities in medicine of beneficence and respect for patient autonomy
The Role of Representative Design in an Ecological Approach to Cognition
Ambiguities and unstated assumptions in probabilistic reasoning
Do positive illusions foster mental health? An examination of the Taylor and Brown formulation
Bias
Adaptive Thinking
Managerial and Organizational Cognition
Judgment and Decision Making
Judgment and Decision Making
Bounded Rationality
Context, Environment, and Learning in Evolutionary Psychology
Prospect Theory
Seeing, Doing, and Knowing
Statistical Inference as Severe Testing
Heuristics and Biases
On the accuracy of personality judgment
The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence
Intuition and Reasoning
Probabilistic mental models
Belief polarization is not always irrational.
On the reality of cognitive illusions.
Individual differences in reasoning
Are humans good intuitive statisticians after all? Rethinking some conclusions from the literature on judgment under uncertainty
On narrow norms and vague heuristics
Belief in Conspiracy Theories and Susceptibility to the Conjunction Fallacy
Support theory
Overcoming the Inevitable Anchoring Effect
The intolerance of uncertainty construct in the context of anxiety disorders
Coping with Uncertainty
Measuring Expectations
Representativeness Revisited
Fear of the unknown
Do Frequency Representations Eliminate Conjunction Effects? An Exercise in Adversarial Collaboration
The base rate fallacy reconsidered
A Fallacious Fallacy
Qué es un contexto para las teorías cognitivas del razonamiento
La autonomía de las tradiciones experimentales como problema epistemológico
Os Sistemas De Avaliação Da Eficácia Da Investigação Criminal No Brasil
Human behavior in the context of low-probability high-impact events
Frequency Formats
Ignorance of the crowd
No easy way out
Tragic Flaws
On the Goals and Limitations of Psychological Science
What Can AI Learn from Psychology and When Can AI Neglect it
Not all hands get hot
Effects of uncertain system information on users' performance, confidence, and trust in aided linguistic judgement
Is it a judgment of representativeness? Re-examining the birth sequence problem
Character-Infused Ethical Decision Making
Effects of trust and perceived self-efficacy on aided judgement
Expert biases in technology foresight. Why they are a problem and how to mitigate them
Lossy encoding of distributions in judgment under uncertainty
Limits on simulation approaches in intuitive physics
A description–experience gap in statistical intuitions
Unskilled, underperforming, or unaware? Testing three accounts of individual differences in metacognitive monitoring
A rational reinterpretation of dual-process theories
The essence of bounded rationality and debate over its value
Fallacies and biases
Can evolution get us off the hook? Evaluating the ecological defence of human rationality
Stop chasing unicorns of climate inaction
Heuristics and Biases in Theory Formation
Infinity
Heuristics and Biases
Doing and Knowing
Ambiguity and Self-Evaluation
The Affect Heuristic
Stereotypes as Explanations
Sobre o debate freqüentista versus probabilista
Gigerenzer's Evolutionary Arguments against Rational Choice Theory
Confidence and accuracy in person perception
Predicting persons' versus a person's goodness
How alike is it versus how likely is it
Automatic and controlled components of judgment and decision making
Determinants of intergroup differentiation in the illusory correlation task
Presuppositions, provisos, and probability
A Cognitive Neuroscience Approach to Studying the Role of Overconfidence in Problem Gambling
Violence risk assessment and risk communication
Domain-specific reasoning
Unintentional Trolling
The Conjunction Fallacy
The conjunction fallacy
Conjugal Love from a Sociological Perspective
The Oxford Handbook of Rationality
Charles R. Plott’s collected papers on the experimental foundations of economic and political science
Las variables sociales y la conciencia metacognitiva de los jóvenes adultos colombianos
Discovery in Cognitive Psychology
Explanations for Common Responses to the Blue/Green Cab Probabilistic Inference Word Problem
The natural frequency hypothesis and evolutionary arguments
Gigerenzer’s ‘external validity argument’ against the heuristics and biases program
Scoring and keying multiple choice tests
How the United Kingdom's Criminal Records Bureau can reduce the prevalence of elder abuse by improving recruitment decision‐making
Beyond dislike
Gamifying a web survey among adolescents
Perception of technological risk
Revisiting the primary bias
The gambler’s fallacy fallacy (fallacy)
Expert opinion and probabilistic volcanic risk assessment
Induction
The Empire of Chance
A Mathematical Theory of Evidence
Classical Probability in the Enlightenment
Logic of Statistical Inference
Calibration of probabilities
Extensional versus intuitive reasoning
Reasons for confidence.
Automatic and effortful processes in memory.
Features of similarity.
The base-rate fallacy in probability judgments
Bayes Rule as a Descriptive Model
On the psychology of prediction.
Models of man, social and rational
The logic of social exchange
Attribution Theory and Research
The Rise of Statistical Thinking, 1820–1900
Naive attributors' attributions and predictions
The power of consensus
The effects of base rates and individuating information on judgments about another person
Are People Programmed to Commit Fallacies? Further Thoughts about the Interpretation of Experimental Data on Probability Judgment
Training for safety in automated person–machine systems
Abstraction is Uncooperative
Attribution and the psychology of prediction
Do people use consensus information in making causal attributions
Problem solving in judgment under uncertainty
Intuitive theories of events and the effects of base-rate information on prediction
Shareability
The Rise of Statistical Thinking, 1820-1900
Social psychology as history
Human Information Processing and Adjudication
| Obras citantes distintas | 177 |
|---|---|
| Citas por año | 5,06 |
| Intervalo de citas | 1991 - 2026 (36) |
| Velocidad de citación | current |
| Altamente citado | Sí |
| Tipos de cita | Neutras: 170 |