Tariffs and Trade Fluctuations

Does Protectionism Matter as Much as We Think

Datos Bibliográficos

ID6268653
AutoresWilliam R Thompson (0000-0002-7022-585X), Rafael Reuveny
Año1998
Volumen52
Número2
Páginas421-440
Fecha de publicación1998-01-01
Peer ReviewedSí
Open AccessSí
TipoARTICLE
RevistaInternational Organization (JOURNAL)
Identificadores de la revistaISSN: 0020-8183 • E-ISSN: 1531-5088
EditorialCambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1162/002081898753162875
OpenAlexW2118442199
IdiomaEN
Citas recibidas5
Referencias citadas30

Despite the widespread assumption that tariffs reduce trade volume in the short term, it is conceivable that long-term expansion and contractions in trade actually drive tariff levels. A Granger causality analysis performed on British, U.S., French, German, Japanese, and a systematic aggregate data on GDP-tariff levels encompassing the 1854–1990 period finds mixed support for both the short- and long-term interpretations. In general, the antecedence of trade on protectionism predominates over the antecedence of protectionism on trade. One implication is that the long-term context should not be ignored in analyzing short-term dynamics

Causality (physics · Context (archaeology · Economics · International economics · International trade · Protectionism · Tariff · Term (time · Trade volume · Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth · Global trade and economics · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact