The inversion of the ‘really big trade-off

Homeownership and Pensions in Long-Run Perspective

Datos Bibliográficos

ID6407946
AutoresTod Van Gunten (0000-0003-4454-7713, University of Edinburgh), Sebastian Kohl (0000-0002-8358-6021, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies, Cologne, Germany, autor de correspondencia)
Año2020
Volumen43
Número2
Páginas435-463
Fecha de publicación2020-02-23
Peer ReviewedSí
Open AccessSí
TipoARTICLE
RevistaWest European Politics (JOURNAL)
Identificadores de la revistaISSN: 0140-2382 • E-ISSN: 1743-9655
EditorialInforma UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1080/01402382.2019.1609285
OpenAlexW2946152669
IdiomaEN
Citas recibidas27
Referencias citadas35

The hypothesis of a trade-off between homeownership and welfare state provision, first proposed by Jim Kemeny around 1980, is a foundational claim in the political economy of housing. However, the evidence for this hypothesis is unclear at both macro and micro levels. This paper examines the link between welfare and homeownership at the macro level using new long-run data and a multilevel modelling approach. It shows that the negative cross-sectional correlation between homeownership and public welfare provision observed in the earliest available data disappears and becomes neutral by the 1980s and possibly positive subsequently. Within-country trajectories vary, but are significantly positive in more countries than significantly negative, suggesting that in some contexts welfare and homeownership are complements rather than competitors. The paper posits a dual ratchet effect mechanism in both pension benefits and homeownership capable of producing this inversion, and further suggests that rising public indebtedness and the debt-stabilising effects of welfare states may account for the emergence of complementarity in the pension‒homeownership relationship. The latter supports the hypothesis that some countries have avoided the trade-off by ‘buying time’ on credit markets

Complementarity (molecular biology · Debt · Economics · Labour economics · Macro · Macroeconomics · Market economy · Pension · Political science · Politics · Welfare · Welfare state · Financial Literacy, Pension, Retirement Analysis · Housing Market and Economics · Housing, Finance, and Neoliberalism