Pendulum Policy

Natural Gas Forecasts and Canadian Energy Policy, 1969–1981

Datos Bibliográficos

ID7270903
AutoresJohn Robinson (0000-0003-4559-5565, University of Waterloo, autor de correspondencia), John Bridger Robinson
Año1983
Volumen16
Número2
Páginas299-319
Fecha de publicación1983-06-01
Peer ReviewedSí
Open AccessSí
TipoARTICLE
RevistaCanadian Journal of Political Science (JOURNAL)
Identificadores de la revistaISSN: 0008-4239 • E-ISSN: 1744-9324
EditorialCambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1017/s000842390002326x
OpenAlexW2089974172
IdiomaEN
Citas recibidas5
Referencias citadas9

Major energy policy decisions are usually based in part upon forecasts of energy supply and demand. However an examination of the Canadian National Energy Board's forecasts of natural gas supply and demand over the last decade indicates that these forecasts were not a reliable basis for policy decisions. An analysis of the policy context underlying those forecasts reveals that they were not neutral “best guess” estimates of future supply and demand, but instead closely reflected the policy context and major project proposals of the time. The reasons for this are rooted in the nature of forecasting techniques and the way that they are used by decision-makers. This, it is argued, has important implications for the use of energy forecasting in policy planning

Context (archaeology · Demand forecasting · Economics · Energy (signal processing · Energy demand · Energy policy · Energy supply · Environmental economics · Natural gas · Operations management · Policy analysis · Political science · Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics · Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies · Engineering · Global Energy and Sustainability Research · Public Administration