Toward a Per Capita-Based Climate Treaty

REASONABLE PEOPLE can disagree on the best approach for greenhouse gas reduction, but few would dispute that the Protocol is in serious trouble as a mechanism for effective, long-term climate policy. In the wake of the November 1998 Buenos Aires Conference of the Parties, a functioning global emissions reduction system is still an unrealized goal, and what will happen after 2012 is even less clear. It is evident that future population size and growth rates will have a major impact on the quantity and geographical source of emissions, as well as a bearing on the policy instruments necessary to effect reductions and mitigate the potentially serious economic, social, and environmental effects of climate change. In this issue of the Review, Paul de Sa makes a number of interesting comments on my article, 'Population, carbon emissions, and global warming: The forgotten relationship at Kyoto (Meyerson 1998b). Some of his critique constitutes valid discussion of a complex scientific and policy problem; other points may be more the product of misunderstanding. His comments, in conjunction with my earlier article, create a valuable springboard for a more serious discussion about the relationship between population and carbon emissions, and the possibilities for a treaty that recognizes and integrates this essential nexus. De Sa's two basic criticisms of my analysis of the Protocol are that 1) using per capita emission reductions as a measure for assessing the Protocol is dunfounded, and 2) my article neglects the ways in which projections of future population growth influenced the outcome at Kyoto. He comments only briefly on the central conclusions of my article, that the fixed national cap system employed by is unworkable in the long run because of projected demographic changes among Annex 1 countries, and that this issue is of even greater importance for the developing countries, which necessarily must be active participants in any future climate treaty. I will briefly address the two issues de Sa has raised and then discuss the larger issue-how to devise a climate policy approach that can

Geography · Per capita · Political science · Population · Sociology · Treaty · Climate Change Policy and Economics · Demography · Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies · Environmental Impact and Sustainability · Law

• Population Weights in the International Order

  Open Access•Geoffrey Mcnicoll•Population and Development Review•1999

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• Population, Development and Global Warming

  Open Access•Frederick A B Meyerson•Population and Environment•1998

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• Population, Carbon Emmissions, and Global Warming

  Frederick A B Meyerson•Population and Development Review•1998

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