Scenarios for embedding phosphorus recovery into the international regime through EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism

Datos Bibliográficos

ID8022360
AutoresTeodor Kalpakchiev (0000-0003-3473-0346, autor de correspondencia), Brent Jacobs (0000-0003-3147-341X), Julia Martin-Ortega (0000-0003-0002-6772), Markus Fraundorfer (0000-0002-5446-9635), Dana Cordell (0000-0001-5138-1569)
Año2025
Volumen10
Páginas101504-101504
Fecha de publicación2025-11-17
Peer ReviewedSí
Open AccessSí
TipoARTICLE
RevistaSustainable Futures (JOURNAL)
Identificadores de la revistaISSN: 2666-1888
EditorialElsevier BV (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101504
OpenAlexW7105853947
IdiomaEN
Referencias citadas155

The EU’s demand for Phosphorus, an essential element for food security, is expected to increase with up to 148% in agriculture and be subject to increasing competition from technological sectors, where demand is expected to increase tenfold. Although the circular economy of wastewater is a recognized mitigation option and the United Nations Framework for Climate Change (UNFCCC) has called for research exploring these options, emerging recovery technologies are underreported in climate models. At the same time, a global coordination of phosphorus is missing. To address this gap, we engage in a three-stage Delphi-based qualitative scenario building based on the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) with fourteen phosphorus and carbon governance experts, through which we outline new framings and design features for EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) that can advance the recovery of phosphorus and associated resources from wastewater. Our results suggest that within a fossil-fuel reframing of CBAM in non-cooperative scenarios, the technological focus could be on biomethane through anaerobic digestion and within cooperative scenarios in the long-term – on biochar as a carbon removal technology. Within a competitiveness framing, primary phosphates could be prioritised for food security and the recovered - to value-added industries that can purchase it at a premium. Extending these measures through a development cooperation reframing and design features for CBAM (technological transfers and rebates for recycled content) can fill an innovation gap, advance the idea of a horizontal climate labelling of products and improve CBAM’s compliance with international law. We also assess the viability of backcasted policy measures (real-time environmental feedback and incorporation of recovery in United Nations Framework for Classification of Resources (UNFC

Climate change · Cognitive reframing · Competition (biology · Corporate governance · Food security · Global warming · Phosphorus · Sustainability · Phosphorus and nutrient management · Soil and Water Nutrient Dynamics · Wastewater Treatment and Reuse