The Predictive Validity of Subjective Probabilities of Survival

Datos Bibliográficos

ID9703035
AutoresMichael D Hurd (0000-0001-9167-8869, RAND and NBER University of California, Los Angeles and NBER), Kathleen McGarry (RAND and NBER University of California, Los Angeles and NBER)
Año2002
Volumen112
Número482
Páginas966-985
Fecha de publicación2002-10-01
Peer ReviewedSí
Open AccessSí
TipoARTICLE
RevistaThe Economic Journal (JOURNAL)
Identificadores de la revistaISSN: 0013-0133 • E-ISSN: 1468-0297
EditorialOxford University Press (OUP) (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1111/1468-0297.00065
OpenAlexW2889822609
IdiomaEN
Citas recibidas79
Referencias citadas5

Although expectations, or more precisely subjective probability distributions, play a prominent role in models of decision making under uncertainty, we have had very little data on them. Based on panel data from the Health and Retirement Study, we study the evolution of subjective survival probabilities and their ability to predict actual mortality. In panel, respondents modify their survival probabilities in response to new information such as the onset of a new disease condition. Subjective survival probabilities predict actual survival: those who survived in the panel reported survival probabilities approximately 50% greater at baseline than those who died. Copyright Royal Economic Society 2002

Actuarial science · Aggregate (composite · Baseline (sea · Econometrics · Economics · Health and Retirement Study · Population · Statistics · Demography · Global Health Care Issues · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management · Mathematics · Medicine · Psychology · Gerontology