Babies and the macroeconomy

Datos Bibliográficos

ID9727370
AutoresClaudia Goldin (0000-0003-3842-1604, Harvard University, autor de correspondencia)
Año2025
Volumen92
Número367
Páginas675-700
Fecha de publicación2025-07-01
Peer ReviewedSí
Open AccessSí
TipoARTICLE
RevistaEconomica (JOURNAL)
Identificadores de la revistaISSN: 0013-0427 • E-ISSN: 1468-0335
EditorialWiley (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1111/ecca.12585
OpenAlexW4410814541
IdiomaEN
Citas recibidas3
Referencias citadas31

Fertility levels have decreased greatly in virtually every nation, but the timing of the decline has differed even among developed countries. In Europe, Asia and North America, total fertility rates (TFRs) of some nations dipped below the magic replacement figure of 2.1 as early as the 1970s. But in other nations, fertility rates remained substantial until the 1990s, plummeting subsequently. This paper addresses why some countries in Europe and Asia with moderate fertility levels in the 1980s have become the ‘lowest low’ nations today (TFRs less than 1.3), whereas those that decreased earlier have not. Also addressed is why the crossover point for the two groups of nations was around the 1980s and 1990s. An important factor that distinguishes the two groups is their economic growth in the decades after the Second World War, especially the 1960s and 1970s. Countries with ‘lowest low’ fertility rates today experienced rapid growth in GDP per capita after a long period of stagnation or decline. They were catapulted into modernity, but the beliefs, values and traditions of their citizens changed more slowly. Thus swift economic change may lead to both generational and gendered conflicts that result in a rapid decrease in TFR

Birth rate · Demographic economics · Development economics · Economics · Family planning · Fertility · Per capita · Political science · Population · Research methodology · Sociology · Sub-replacement fertility · Total fertility rate · Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences · Demography · Family Dynamics and Relationships · Gender, Labor, and Family Dynamics