Inflation Targets and the Zero Lower Bound in a Behavioural Macroeconomic Model

Datos Bibliográficos

ID9727694
AutoresPaul De Grauwe (0000-0003-0229-1641, London School of Economics and Political Science), Yuemei Ji (0000-0002-6327-7846, University College London)
Año2019
Volumen86
Número342
Páginas262-299
Fecha de publicación2019-04-01
Peer ReviewedSí
Open AccessSí
TipoARTICLE
RevistaEconomica (JOURNAL)
Identificadores de la revistaISSN: 0013-0427 • E-ISSN: 1468-0335
EditorialWiley (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1111/ecca.12261
OpenAlexW2431878786
IdiomaEN
Citas recibidas1
Referencias citadas29

We analyse the relationship between the level of the inflation target and the zero lower bound imposed on the nominal interest rate in the framework of a behavioural New‐Keynesian macroeconomic model in which agents, experiencing cognitive limitations, use adaptive learning forecasting rules. The model produces endogenous waves of optimism and pessimism (animal spirits) that lead to non‐normal distributions of the output gap. We find that when the inflation target is too close to zero, the economy can get gripped by ‘chronic pessimism’ that leads to a dominance of negative output gaps and recessions, and in turn feeds back on expectations producing long waves of pessimism. Low inflation targets create the risk of persistence of recessions and low growth. In conclusion, our framework suggests that the 2% inflation target, now pursued by many central banks, is too low

Animal spirits · Dominance (genetics) · Economics · Inflation (cosmology) · Inflation targeting · Keynesian economics · Macroeconomic model · Monetary economics · Monetary policy · New Keynesian economics · Optimism · Output gap · Pessimism · Recession · Zero lower bound · Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis · Economic theories and models · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact · Psychology