An introduction to inverse probability weighting and marginal structural models

Developmental scientists routinely examine how a focal predictor relates to some aspect of children's development. Although covariate adjustment is typically used to test hypotheses, propensity score-based methods, including inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) and marginal structural models (MSM), can strengthen inference and answer more nuanced, developmentally relevant questions. This article provides a didactic introduction to IPTW and MSM methods and demonstrates their use for testing the impact of environmental smoke exposure (continuous treatment) from 6 to 90 months on parent-reported attention deficit hyperactivity disorder behaviors in first grade for 1,053 children (51% male, 44% Black) in the Family Life Project. We highlight differences that result both in conclusions and in the evaluation of assumptions for IPTW and MSM relative to more traditional covariate adjustment methods. Sample Stata syntax is provided. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2025 APA, all rights reserved)

Cognitive psychology · Developmental psychology · Econometrics · Marginal structural model · Weighting · Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder · Clinical Psychology · Mathematics · Medicine · Psychology · Statistical Methods and Inference