Contributions of local Lucc spatially explicit scenarios for water management
Lessons learned from an ex-post evaluation
Datos Bibliográficos
| ID | 9846381 |
|---|---|
| Autores | R Rigo, Rosângela Silva Rigo (0000-0002-2031-0204, Littoral, Environnement, Télédétection, Géomatique), Philippe Martin (0000-0001-5551-8016, AgroParisTech), Peter H Verburg (0000-0002-6977-7104, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research), Thomas Houet (0000-0001-5890-6145, Littoral, Environnement, Télédétection, Géomatique, autor de correspondencia) |
| Año | 2022 |
| Volumen | 139 |
| Páginas | 102937 |
| Fecha de publicación | 2022-05-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Sí |
| Open Access | Sí |
| Tipo | ARTICLE |
| Revista | Futures (JOURNAL) |
| Identificadores de la revista | ISSN: 0016-3287 • E-ISSN: 1873-6378 |
| Editorial | Elsevier BV (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.futures.2022.102937 |
| OpenAlex | W4224099161 |
| Idioma | EN |
| Citas recibidas | 4 |
| Referencias citadas | 54 |
Although potential benefits and limits of scenarios are well known, few studies verify their impacts on knowledge production and public decision-making in the long term. In this paper, we perform an ex-post evaluation of land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) scenarios produced in 2004 aiming to support water management. The objective is to evaluate to what extent the impacts of those scenarios reflect expectations and to understand which factors influenced the occurrence of impacts. Moreover, we provide insights on the driving forces considered in LUCC modelling that produce plausible scenarios at a watershed level. At the time horizon of scenarios, we used semi structured interviews, combined with a quantitative comparison between observed and simulated LUCC. Results indicate that scenarios fulfilled their original purpose: to support the definition of the local water management strategy. Furthermore, they promoted a multidisciplinary perspective within land managers and facilitated the recognition of challenges and opportunities faced by local farmers. Nevertheless, they failed in creating a shared vision of the future across groups of different actors. The lessons learned from the evaluation are synthesized in guidelines that can be used to enhance impacts of any future scenarios
Business · Civil engineering · Environmental planning · Environmental resource management · Land cover · Land management · Land use · Machine learning · Multidisciplinary approach · Perspective (graphical · Political science · Time horizon · Watershed · Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science · Engineering · Environmental Science · Land Use and Ecosystem Services · Sustainability and Climate Change Governance · Water resources management and optimization
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| Obras citantes distintas | 4 |
|---|---|
| Citas por año | 2 |
| Intervalo de citas | 2024 - 2025 (2) |
| Velocidad de citación | recent |
| Altamente citado | No |
| Tipos de cita | Neutras: 3 |